Baseball Bits #1: Only Four Teams To Win World Series with Higher ERA than 2016 Red Sox

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The Red Sox have finally had a strong record, but with a tough schedule coming up, can they stay in contention?  They have scored plenty of runs this season, but the pitching has struggled.  They didn’t make a move at the deadline beyond Drew Pomeranz (who can’t find his groove), and relievers Fernando Abad (who struggled) and Brad Ziegler (who surprisingly has thrived).  The Red Sox have put up a 4.33 team ERA this season.   Only four teams have won the World Series with a higher ERA.  If the Red Sox don’t improve their pitching, could they be in trouble, or could they be the next team.  Well I’ve done research to prove my point, and in this post, I will show you what I came up with and what we can conclude about the World Series hopes of this year’s Red Sox team.

Below is a PDF with all my research.  I have put together the World Series winning and losing teams’ ERAs and runs per game.  Below the PDF are some “Baseball Bits” I found after the research.

Baseball Bits (Update) — World Series Team Stats from 1903 to present — Year Descending — 2016-08-03

 

World Series Teams ERA and Runs Per Game (RPG)

  • Only 4 Teams (that’s just 3.6%!) have won the World Series with an ERA over the Red Sox’s 2016 ERA to date:

o    2006 Cardinals (Last To Do It)

o    2000 Yankees

o    1996 Yankees

o    1987 Twins (First To Do It)

  • Last team to win WS with ERA over Red Sox’s current 4.33: 2006 Cardinals
  • Last team to win WS with ERA over 4.00: 2009 Yankees
  • Only 6 teams have made the WS with ERA over 4.33
  • Only 12 teams have Won the WS with ERA over 4.00, the first being the 1929 Cubs
  • 21 teams have made the WS with ERA over 4.00, just 9.4%!
  • 3 teams have won the WS with ERA under 2.00:

o    1910 Philadelphia Athletics

o    1907 Cubs (1.73 ERA is lowest by WS winner)

o    1906 White Sox

  • 76% of the teams that made the WS with ERA over 4.00 had 5.00 or more RPG and many others were close to 5 RPG
  • Typically teams that made the WS with an ERA over 4.00 did it in a hitter favored baseball year

 

The Verdict

In conclusion, good team pitching beats good team hitting when it come to the World Series.  If the Red Sox score enough runs per game in this hitter friendly season, they could have a chance to win it all.  However, it would’ve helped to trade for a pitcher and it will also help to have pitching improvement, especially David Price and Clay Buchholz.  You never know because in the 4 occasions when teams have won the WS with a higher team ERA, it’s been in the last 30 years.

 

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