2018 NFL Week 11 Picks & Previews: Defense Wins Games

Welcome to my Week 11 NFL Picks and Previews.  Last week was a rough week for me. I went 6-8, putting my overall record at 81-65-2 (81-66-2 including TNF Week 11).  I am still ahead of 1 expert from ESPN and 1 from CBS Sports. I’m expecting a low scoring week this week. The top defenses in the league will thrive, and after an offense-heavy year, defense really will win some games.  Which defense first teams will prosper? Which will fall short due to a regressing offensive scheme? Comment with your thoughts, and keep reading to find out what I think.

Lock of the Week

Both these teams have struggled regressively this season.  At the start of the year, I had projected this to be an exciting match-up between two contenders.  That is not the case, as these two teams have only combined to beat two other teams this year: the Browns and the 49ers (twice).  I cannot see Oakland winning in Arizona. They are now without Marshawn Lynch (injury), Amari Cooper (trade), and Khalil Mack (trade).  QB Josh Rosen and the Cardinals will win triumphantly on home turf. They may be in the basement of the league, but they will touch the ceiling of that basement with 3 wins against other bottom of the barrel teams.  

Upset of the Week (SNF)

This won’t be Minnesota’s best offensive game as the Bears hold them back quite a bit.  But the Vikes defense should be at its best in Chicago, overwhelming rookie QB Mitch Trubisky and his young offense.  The Bears run defense will succeed here, but the secondary may struggle against Minnesota’s deep group of receivers. This will allow the Vikings to pull the upset in Chicago and take the NFC North lead.

The Other Games

TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night; Actual Score: 27-24 Seahawks)

Note: Not only did Mike McCarthy blow it, he also prevented me from a correct pick and exact score.

This is a battle of two high-powered pass offenses.  However, the X-Factor in this game will be defense. The young Seattle defense will struggle to contain Green Bay’s top receivers, and that will cost the Seahawks.  This would make them the first home team to lose on TNF. The Packers will win thanks to QB Aaron Rodgers’ dominance of the Seattle D. The Seahawks receivers will overwhelm the Green Bay secondary though, making this close.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

The Jags have regressively struggled over the past few weeks.  But these are the kinds of games Pittsburgh will blow without RB Le’Veon Bell.  They are on the road in a warm-weather stadium against one of the best underrated defenses in the league.  Expect the Jacksonville D to rebound at home. Meanwhile, QB Blake Bortles will turn it around for a multi-TD game, as Pittsburgh’s average defense cannot handle Bortles.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

This could be an ugly game.  Ravens QB Joe Flacco and Bengals WR A.J. Green are both out.  That being said, don’t expect much offense, especially considering this is a match-up between the AFC North’s two best defenses.  I could see QB Lamar Jackson leading Baltimore to victory, but it won’t be pretty.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

This will be another low-scoring game thanks to Houston’s defensive dominance.  QB Deshaun Watson and his receivers have not been all-out dominant for the Texans.  But they should score enough with their defense holding the Redskins to 10 or less points.  
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

It has been a pass-heavy season around the league.  But I see the run game leading Tennessee to victory here against the rebuilding Colts defensive front.  Look for Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry to combine for 150+ yards in this game, running all over the Indy defense.  QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton will connect in the end zone and keep this close, but I don’t think they will be able to keep up.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

Expect Dallas to struggle in containing QB Matt Ryan and his WR trio.  The Cowboys should keep it close against the weak Falcons defense, using WR Amari Cooper to their advantage.  However, I see Atlanta holding on to win at home despite the struggling defense.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

The Giants will keep this close with QB Eli Manning putting up another decent game.  However, look for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers offense to gather a rhythm on the road.  They will win this thanks to another strong offensive performance.
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

QB Matthew Stafford will look better offensively here, but they will miss WRs Golden Tate and Marvin Jones.  They will have to rely very heavily on young WR Kenny Golladay. It won’t be enough against QB Cam Newton and the Carolina offense.
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST

The Denver offense may struggle here against a rejuvenated Chargers D.  Meanwhile, Denver’s D will slip against a high-powered LA offense. This will lead to an easy Chargers victory.
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST

QB Carson Wentz will struggle to find his receivers here up against a young but stacked New Orleans secondary.  Meanwhile, Philly will struggle to contain New Orleans’ WR duo without CB Ronald Darby. The Eagles will give the Saints a scare, but the Saints should win easily in the end.
Monday, 8:15 PM EST

In 2016, the Saints and Giants played and we were expecting the shootout of the season.  What we received was a dud. I see the same thing happening here as the Rams D comes out of hibernation to severely limit QB Patrick Mahomes II.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense will be able to handle the Rams’ receivers with WR Cooper Kupp done for the year. I see the Rams winning in the end thanks to the defensive dominance.

 

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