2019 March Madness Bracketology 2.0: Who’s on Top as Conference Championships Wrap Up?

Selection Sunday is finally here.  There are just about seven hours left till the big reveal, and today, I’ll be releasing my final projection of the March Madness bracket before the selection committee reveals the real bracket. Feel free to comment with your thoughts, and let’s get started with the East Region.

Note: Bracketology is Accurate as of March 16, 2019 at 12:00 PM EST

Since this was written:

  • Prairie View A&M has defeated Texas Southern in the SWAC Championship, clinching a March Madness bid and likely taking Texas Southern’s previously expected tourney slot.
  • My only A10 reps, VCU and Davidson, have been eliminated from the A10 tournament.  Saint Louis or Saint Bonaventure will punch their ticket as well.
  • Oregon has defeated Washington in the Pac-12 championship.  It is now highly unlikely that they will have to play in the First Four as I predicted

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After winning the ACC tournament thanks to Zion Williamson’s return, I have Duke winning the ACC and grabbing the 1 seed and take on the Patriot League winner, Colgate. I have Michigan State snagging a 2 seed in the East after they win the B1G, as they don’t have a 1-seed resume regardless of their Big Ten tournament results. They’ll take on Gardner-Webb, who surprised some when they punched their March Madness ticket this week. LSU should also earn a Top 4 seed after a strong finish to the season. Virginia Tech will grab the 4-seed after a strong start to the ACC season. They’ll play New England-based teams in the Round of 64 (Northeastern and Yale).

Kansas State will take the 5 seed after missing out on the Big 12 championship, and Cincinnati will grab the 6 seed on an at-large bid. I see Colorado grabbing one of the last four at-large bids despite playing in a weak Pac-12, but Clemson will beat them out in the First Four and take on Kansas State. UNC Greensboro will grab an at-large bid as well in an unusually strong SoCon. Villanova hasn’t quite been themself this year, but they’ll still win the Big East and snag a 7 seed. Syracuse will grab a 10 seed and take on Villanova despite an underwhelming ACC performance. NC State has been inconsistent, but they’re fitting for an 8 seed. Davidson should still make the tourney even if they lose the Atlantic 10 to VCU or someone else. They’ll take the 9 seed.

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Tennessee just took down Kentucky in the SEC semifinals, and as long as they win the SEC, they should grab the final 1 seed. They’ll take on Montana, who won a weak Big Sky. UNC may have lost in the ACC semifinals. But after a very strong finish to the season, they are still 2-seed material in my eyes. They’ll face off with Northern Kentucky. Texas Tech finished the regular season with a bang despite a playoff choke.  They should still earn a 3 seed as they did last year. Georgia State will challenge them after making the tournament for the third time in 5 years. Purdue will take the 4 seed after a similar situation to the Red Raiders, facing the winner of a strong C-USA, Old Dominion.

Wofford turned out to one of the best mid-major teams in a long time, and they are deserving of a top half slot in the NCAA tournament. I have them taking on the Florida Gators, who have come up big when they needed to despite inconsistency. The Gators will take down another PAC-12 team, Oregon in the First Four. Maryland will grab a 6 seed after finishing the season strong, taking on an Ole Miss team who topped off a strong start with a decent SEC performance. Mississippi State may have struggled down the stretch this year in the SEC, but they should still grab a top half seed as well. Belmont will face them: I feel that their strong season is enough to justify an at-large bid despite playing in a weaker conference. Temple’s resume is somewhat underrated as well, and they’ll snag the 8 seed to play Arizona State, one of the stronger teams in the PAC-12.

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Virginia is coming off another strong regular season despite being upset by UMBC a year ago today. The question is, will they choke in the tourney again? They will play either Iona or NC Central, both of whom are experienced March Madness teams. Michigan will grab the 2 seed after their strong inter-conference performance, and Bradley will take them on after a surprise MVC victory. Nevada will still grab a 3 seed despite losing the MWC – they are still another one of the best mid-major teams in the NCAA. Vermont will give them a run for their money though after beating UMBC in the America East finals. Kansas will snag the 4 seed despite an inconsistent year and relatively early Big 12 tourney elimination. They’ll play Liberty, one of this year’s first ticket punchers.

Auburn is not quite on the level of SEC rivals Tennessee and Kentucky, but they should still get a fairly high seed, playing Saint Mary’s, who shocked Gonzaga in the WCC tourney. Marquette didn’t finish as strong as they started, but their early success still warrants a 6 seed, and they’ll play Oklahoma, whose struggles in the Big 12 aren’t enough to disqualify them from an at-large bid. Buffalo, another strong mid-major, was undefeated for almost half the season, but their slightly underwhelming intra-Conference performance will keep them to a 7 seed and a first round date with Louisville, who just barely makes the cut after an underwhelming start and struggles late in the season. Iowa and UCF will face off in the 8-9 game, as UCF nearly kept up with Cincinnati and Houston in the AAC and Iowa improved upon 2017-18 struggles.

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Gonzaga should still be able to grab a #1 seed, even after losing in the WCC Championship. Fairleigh Dickinson or North Dakota State (Both already punched tickets) will face them.  After a strong SEC performance, Kentucky will grab a 2 seed despite losing to Tennessee in the SEC semifinals and should easily defeat Abilene Christian of the Southland Conference.  AAC favorite Houston should be able to snag a 3 seed after just two regular season losses.  UC Irvine, who has been a regular contender in the Big West throughout the Russell Turner era will challenge them.  Florida State made the ACC finals.  Considering their above average regular season, they are definitely deserving of a Top 4 seed.  Texas Southern will win the SWAC and take them on.

Wisconsin was at least competitive in the B1G, and Ethan Happ’s return gave them a boost this year.  They should earn the 5 seed after their performance, but New Mexico State is an experienced NCAA tournament team who has pulled many upsets before.  They will not be an easy opponent.  Washington, the Pac-12 regular season winner, should still be considered a Top 25 overall team despite their weak conference.  TCU will just barely earn the at-large bid and first-round bye as they take Washington on.  Whether VCU wins the A10 or not, they should still make it in with a top half seed after a late-season surge to the top of the A10 standings.  Murray State, the OVC winner will give them a hard time though after losing just 4 games on the season.  I have Big 12 winner Iowa State and MWC winner Utah State in the 8-9 game.  Neither is deserving of Top 4 seeds due to underwhelming regular season performances.  But their conference victories will boost their resumes.

Additional Notes

Conferences with Multiple Teams:

  • ACC: 9
  • SEC: 7
  • Big 12: 6
  • B1G: 6
  • AAC: 4
  • PAC-12: 4
  • A10: 2
  • Big East: 2
  • MWC: 2
  • OVC: 2
  • SoCon: 2
  • WCC: 2

Bubble Watch

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That’s all for my final bracketology of the year.  Stay tuned for more March Madness coverage soon, including a region-by-region breakdown of my bracket this week.

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