Ultimate Super Bowl LI Preview: Video, Prediction and More

The Super Bowl is almost here.  The snacks are ready and the Pats and Falcons are about to face off in a great game.  So, it’s time to look a little bit deeper.  Who will win the big game on Sunday?  Keep reading to find out what I think!

Here’s my video preview for the big game:

 

 

I also have an iMovie trailer, check it out!

 

Okay, that gave you a brief preview, but it’s time to go deeper.  This may be one of the greatest Super Bowls ever.  Either team has a shot to win.  

The Case for the Pats

The Patriots are four time champions looking for a fifth.  One thing that will come to their advantage is their depth.  They have so many options on offense, and rotate the defense very frequently.  Tom Brady is on fire, and the defense is first in scoring defense and has the power to slow down and overwhelm Matt Ryan.

If the Pats win, Brady will be known as the G.O.A.T, and Bill Belichick will be known as the greatest head coach ever.  I think things are looking good for the Pats.  I really think that the Patriots were meant to win this season.  

The Case For The Falcons

Matt Ryan is trying to win the Falcons their first Super Bowl, and I think he has a good chance. The Falcons have an awesome QB-RB-WR combo.  The Falcons don’t have the best defense, but Matt Ryan and his offense have had an MVP caliber season.  The Falcons may not have the awesome past of the Patriots, but they can overwhelm a defense, and they actually looked really good this season.  I think they have a legitimate chance.  

Super Bowl Fast Facts

  • The Patriots have not lost a Super Bowl when they’ve had a Top 10 defense, they are first this year.  
  • However, the Pats have not faced a Top 10 passing QB this season, Matt Ryan is number 1.
  • Matt Ryan has won against 5 of 6 winning QBs in 2016.  
  • However, the Falcons have scored 540 points this season.  No team to score 540 points or more in a season has ever won the Super Bowl.  
  • The Patriots are 17-0 when Dion Lewis plays.  Lewis will play in Super Bowl LI.
  • The Patriots have only thrown 2 turnovers, fewest in the NFL
  • Despite ranking 25th in offensive yards per carry, they only allow 3.85 to opponents.  
  • The last 7 MVP winners to make the Super Bowl have lost

The Final Pick

Typically, I just predict the score. But it’s the Super Bowl, so I went a little deeper.  I simulated the entire game based on my basic score prediction.  Below are the final score and stat predictions I came up with.  

Patriots, 30, Falcons, 23

I think the Patriots will win by a touchdown.  The Falcons just don’t have the depth to cover the Pats offense.  Their defense is terrible in the red zone and will let the Pats score on them.  Although Brady will do strongly and throw for 2 TDs, I think we will also see a Patriots rushing touchdown.  Both these teams went from having a desperate running game to an amazing backfield.  The Falcons will also score at least 1 rushing TD.  

However, this is number one offense (Falcons) against number one defense (Patriots).  Who won the last match-up like that?  The Broncos did, they had the number one defense.  Defense wins games, and the Pats defense will pressure Matt Ryan well, and the whole Falcons offense will be messed up by it.  The Falcons have only faced three really good defenses this year, the Seahawks (twice), Broncos and Chiefs.  They went 2-2 in those match-ups, one of their wins at home.  In the Super Bowl, it’s a neutral match-up, and unlike those other teams, the Patriots have amazing offense.  They also have depth that Atlanta lacks.  So, after a grand effort by both teams, I see the Patriots edging this one out.

Stat Projections (Passing, Rushing and Receiving)

Patriots

Passing

Tom Brady, 34/54, 348 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks

 

Rushing

LeGarrette Blount, 17 rush, 76 yards, TD

Dion Lewis, 6 rush, 28 yards

James White: 7 rush, 24 yards

 

Receiving

Julian Edelman, 8/11, 96 yards

Malcolm Mitchell, 6/14, 68 yards, TD

Martellus Bennett, 8/8, 66 yards, TD

Chris Hogan, 6/10, 65 yards

Danny Amendola, 3 /4, 30 yards

Michael Floyd, 2/ 3, 19 yards

Dion Lewis, 1/1, 4 yards

Matt Lengel, 0/1, 0 yards

 

Falcons

 

Passing

Matt Ryan, 31/50, 314 yards, TD, 1 INT, 4 sacks

 

Rushing

Devonta Freeman, 23 rush, 113 yards, TD

Tevin Coleman, 10 rush, 41 yards

Patrick DiMarco, 1 rush, 2 yards

 

Receiving

Julio Jones, 13/22, 139 yards

Mohamed Sanu, 8/11, 68 yards, TD

Austin Hooper, 6/6, 62 yards

Taylor Gabriel, 4/10, 45 yards

Levine Toilolo, 0/1, 0 yards

 

The Super Bowl is almost here.  The food is ready (hopefully).  The game is recorded, and my Super Bowl Sunday is planned.  All that’s left is the wait.  Are you ready for the Big Game?

NFL Week 15 Picks: It All Leads Up To The Playoffs

This week is all about playoff scenarios. They’re within the games. This week, my picks mean more than wins and losses. They mean who’s in and who’s out. I’m 130-77-2 this year. How do you think I’ll do this week? Keep reading, then comment your thoughts.
Lock Of The Week
Packers, 34, Bears, 20
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The Packers haven’t been great this year, but the Bears have been disgracefully bad. I do not think they’ll be able to handle a tough Packers offense, even with the home field advantage. As for the Bears offense, I think the attempted rebuild has failed. Jordan Howard has had to step in at RB with Jeremy Langford regressively struggling, Zach Miller and Jay Cutler are hurt, and their receiver options have been slim. They do have Alshon Jeffery back, but with Matt Barkley at QB, that doesn’t mean much for Chicago. The Packers should win by far.
Upset Of The Week
Bengals, 24, Steelers, 22
The Bengals may be without Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green, but they’ve actually been pretty good offensively. The Steelers rely too much on their offense, and that could open the door for Cincinnati. Their defense is not very good, and that will hurt them in this game. The Bengals have a very good defense that could stop the Steelers offense from scoring as much as it normally does. On the other hand, the Bengals offense does not have much in their way, which puts them in a position where they could pull an upset.
Ravens, 30, Eagles, 27
 Image result for ravens offense vs eagles defense
The Eagles defense, especially the secondary is overrated and the revamped Ravens offense should work around the entire defense. That should be enough for Baltimore to win the game, but the Eagles will put up a fight.
Bills, 24, Browns, 15
The Bills may have problems passing, but who cares in this game? The Browns offense will fail to score a touchdown on the Bills defense, and LeSean McCoy will go wild on Cleveland’s defense. This pick is looking like a no-brainer. I almost chose it as my lock.
Texans, 26, Jaguars, 23
The Texans defense will overwhelm the Jags. I don’t think that Jacksonville’s offense can handle them. To add to it, the Texans have a decent offense of their own and could score a lot on Jacksonville. This game should go to Houston, but and upset is more likely here than in the Bills game.
Chiefs, 30, Titans, 22
Image result for marcus mariota vs chiefs
In order for the Pats to clinch the home field advantage, they need 3 times where they win or the Chiefs and Raiders both lose.  I just don’t think this is the game for the Chiefs to lose.  The Chiefs is facing an easy defense this week, and their defense will overwhelm a young Titans team that is usually high scoring.  This is not set up in the Titans’ favor in any way.  The Chiefs even have home field advantage in this game.
Vikings, 26, Colts, 22
Image result for adrian peterson vs colts
This is going to be an interesting match-up.  Two teams, one just outside the playoff picture, the other that’s in “state of emergency” in terms of making the playoffs.  They are hanging in there because of just a crazy tiebreaker that would go in their favor if they won their last three, and Miami, Denver, Baltimore and Tennessee each lost at least 2 games. However, the Vikings aren’t going to make it easy.  Adrian Peterson is back so the offense will be better.  They will be overwhelming on defense, and work around a weak Colts defense.  They should also force lots of turnovers.
Giants, 34, Lions, 30
Image result for eli manning vs lions
This game means a lot.  With a win and a Packers loss, the Lions clinch the division.  The Giants can clinch a playoff berth with a win, and losses for the Redskins, Vikings, and Packers.  The Packers losing, is that going to happen this week?!  Probably not.  But still, this win means a lot in these teams’ playoff campaigns.  I think the Giants offense will be too much for the Lions D, and grab a win at home.
Cardinals, 31, Saints, 30
Image result for cardinals vs saints
The Cardinals released Michael Floyd this week.  Will that cost them this game?  I don’t think the release will cost Arizona the game, but it will narrow their options at receiver.  However, it will be J.J. Nelson’s time to shine, and he could very well come through.  Jermaine Gresham is another option.  But if either of these teams lose, they are out of playoff contention.  It will be tough for both teams, the Cardinals will have trouble with the Saints offense, and the Saints defense leaves an opportunity for an easy Cardinals win.  I don’t feel like the Cardinals defense is the defense to blow a win like that.
Patriots, 22, Broncos, 19
Image result for tom brady vs denver defense
The rivalry of Brady and Manning is gone, but Brady’s still looking for revenge on the team that ended two of his last three seasons.  They won’t be the same team, they still have a very strong defense that will keep this scoring, but if the Patriots defense can build on its performance on Monday, then covering the Broncos will be easy if they can win the turnover game and get to Denver’s QB.  I think either team will win, but this isn’t just another win if the Pats win. The win would clinch the AFC East for the Pats, and a first round bye.
Raiders, 35, Chargers, 20
Image result for derek carr vs chargers
Against a weak Chargers defense, Derek Carr and a revamped Raiders offense is ready to annihilate San Diego.  The Chargers offense can’t do much about it.  They are without Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead and now Melvin Gordon.  The Raiders will be too much for their entire team to handle.
Falcons, 24, 49ers, 22
I don’t think the Falcons are that good,  by they have a seriously easy schedule, and this game should be an easy win for Atlanta.  The 49ers offense just won’t be able to score enough to outscore a strong Falcons offense, that shouldn’t be limited too badly by the Niners D.
Sunday Night Football
Cowboys, 33, Buccaneers, 23
The Cowboys did lose to the Giants, but they’re not losing this game, against the Bucs.  The Bucs are doing well, but don’t match up to the Cowboys in Dallas.  Maybe the Giants have the Cowboys’ formula, but they should win their other games.  At a record of 11-2, you’d expect them to continue to dominate on offense and win this home game.
Monday Night Football
Redskins, 31, Panthers, 26
Image result for josh norman redskins
The Panthers have been slightly better, but the Redskins have actually done pretty well, and Josh Norman will look for revenge on his old team.  The Panthers are no match for the Redskins, especially without Josh Norman.  It’s like if you took Josh Norman out of this game, it would all be a snooze fest and both these teams would be bad.  But the Redskins have signed him, and it’s paying off, especially when their receiver depth will help them against a weak Panthers secondary.  That could cost Carolina the game, not having a good corner.
TNF
Seahawks, 20, Rams, 15
I knew this would be pretty low scoring.  The Seahawks offense didn’t need to score that much, their defense was just too good for LA.  Like I thought, the Rams couldn’t score a touchdown.
Saturday Night’s Game
Jets, 26, Dolphins, 20 Final OT
It was actually very hard to pick this game.  It was Bryce Petty vs. Matt Moore. I ended up just taking the home team.  But really, the rest of the Dolphins’ team is a whole lot better.  They have a better run defense, better receivers (with Eric Decker on IR), and a running back that is now better.

NFL Three Quarter Report: Patriots Current State and My Playoff Machine Scenario

The Patriots have continued to thrive since the second half began.  Sure, they’ve had some flaws.  The defense has been worrying me lately.  They dropped a home game to Seattle because of it.  Their offense had looked a little bit different, more under pressure than usual.  They haven’t been throwing to guys like Martellus Bennett.  Most of the passes are now going to Julian Edelman and emerging receiver Malcolm Mitchell.  Mitchell has been a main factor in the Pats receiving game since the bye.  Dion Lewis is now back, creating some depth in the run game, which they’re using to their advantage.

In Week 10 however, Gronk took a serious hit in the head.  We later found out that he also took a hit to the lung.  He was looking ready to go in Week 13, but doctors found that he had a herniated disc, and needed back surgery. He was out for the season, placed on IR.  Last week against the Rams, the Patriots showed that their new offense was still a scoring offense, and that their run game could help contribute to that.  The Patriots won the game 26-10.  It was a clinic.  The Pats shut them out 17-0 in the 1st half, and continued a long streak of wins in a row at home when leading at halftime, despite being outscored in the 2nd half as the Rams attempted at a comeback.  With Tavon Austin, they might have had two TDs, but this was a good game.  It gives me higher hopes about this Monday night’s game.  It gives me higher hopes for the remainder of the year.  If the Pats want that home field advantage bad enough, they’ll go out there, win 3 or 4 games, and work hard and do their job through all 4.

Playing Around With The Playoff Machine

There are a lot of what if’s when it comes to the playoffs.  Lots of scenarios.  Well, by making my best predictions I could of the next 4 weeks, I simulated what in my opinion, is the most likely playoff scenario.  The question is, who’s in, and who’s out?



Who’s In

Denver Broncos; 8-4, Projection: 11-5

This Denver offense has been terrible.  But they’re 8-4 with one of the best defenses in the league.  Their remaining schedule is at the Titans, vs. the Patriots, at the Chiefs and vs. the Raiders.  Personally, I think those games are winnable, if they produce on offense.  They should win some, and lose some.  I think they should come out victorious in at least two.  Derek Carr usually struggles against Denver, and the Patriots haven’t won in Denver in a while.  They will probably beat two of the three match-ups besides the tough one in KC.  That looks like a one way ticket to playoff town.

Pittsburgh Steelers; 7-5; Projection: 9-7

Sure, the Steelers don’t have the greatest remaining schedule.  It is okay though, and their only division competitor, the Ravens, have a very tough remaining schedule, so it will be tough for them to match up to Pittsburgh in these last 4 weeks, as Pittsburgh should navigate their schedule decently.

Houston Texans; 6-6; Projection; 9-7

A friend of mine said that he thinks the Texans aren’t winning another game this year.  I don’t think so.  They are 6-6, but they have an easy remaining schedule.  The Colts, Jaguars, Bengals and Titans remain.  The Titans could pose a challenge, but I think the Texans will pull a big upset over the Colts this week.  Brock Osweiler will lead them to the top of their division, despite a potential loss in Tennessee to tighten the race.  By that point it will already be too late.  The Texans will have clinched their weak division.

Atlanta Falcons; 7-5; Projection: 10-6

I have been giving the Falcons hate all year, but honestly, let’s face the facts.  Their remaining schedule is against the Rams, Niners, Panthers and Saints, some of the worst NFC teams.  They should win at least two or three of those games.  That should be enough to get past Tampa Bay, who still has a game against Dallas, and can’t count on sweeping New Orleans or Carolina.  The Falcons have safer match-ups.  They play the 49ers, and the Rams!  So they’ve earned themselves a playoff spot, as long as they take advantage of these easily winnable games.

Washington Redskins; 6-5-1; Projection: 9-6-1

The Redskins have what would’ve looked like a tough schedule to end the year, if Carolina and Philly hadn’t completely flopped since.  The Giants could also lose to Washington at home.  The Redskins can produce on offense, and have a great defense now.  I could see them taking advantage of that and squeezing into the playoffs last-minute.

Detroit Lions; 8-4; Projection: 10-6

The Lions have themselves a secure spot as long as they win an easy match-up against the Bears this week, and can beat the Packers.  Beating the Packers doesn’t seem like as big a challenge to them as it would’ve in Week 1.  It’s a home game, and the Lions are 5-1 at home this year.  They also face a now problematic Packers team that isn’t going to be as tough to face.  The Lions should win the NFC North and grab their playoff spot.

Who’s Out

Buffalo Bills; 6-6; Projection: 10-6

The Bills are only 6-6 for a reason.  They have only played 5 home games so far.  The rest of their schedule looks somewhat easy.  The issue is, they’ve already gotten themselves out of contention by losing 6 games early on and they have tough competition for the wild card with in the AFC.  They aren’t beating the Pats out in the division, and they aren’t beating out Oakland and Denver in a tough wild card race.

Baltimore Ravens; 7-5; Projection: 8-8

Like I said before, the Ravens have a really tough schedule for the rest of this year, and with that, it will be hard to beat out a powerful Steelers offensive team for a division title.  Although the Bengals are out of it, they have been really good lately and could bring losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh at home.  Baltimore also goes to Pittsburgh, so they’re at a disadvantage.

Green Bay Packers; 6-6; Projection: 9-7

Originally I thought the Packers could still have a shot at the playoffs, and I thought that these struggles were a fluke, but, boy, I was so wrong.  The Packers are at the point where they need to win all their remaining games to get to the playoffs.  It’s going to be tough for them to get in.  They’re not the same team.  I think if they can grab a win this week at home, all they need to get

Tampa Bay Buccaneers; 7-5; Projection: 9-7

The Buccaneers have been on fire since their bye, but the remaining schedule could be tough.  I’d be shocked if they can beat the Cowboys in Dallas, the team with an 11 game win streak.  They also have three divisional games left, one on the road in New Orleans.  It’s not just some tough games for them, as their schedule isn’t too bad overall, it’s that the Falcons have one of the easiest remaining schedules.

Minnesota Vikings; 6-6; Projection: 8-8

Minnesota now finds themselves in a tough division.  The Lions are flying, and the Packers are still decent, so it’ll be tough for them to get in, especially with the Giants feeling good in that 5th seed.  The mediocre schedule doesn’t help, all the teams they face aren’t terrible, and both their road games could go either way.  The way their offense has been doing isn’t promising, despite bad D.  I think that the Jaguars will even outscore them this week.

Miami Dolphins; 7-5; Projection: 8-8

The Dolphins did look impressive during their winning streak.  But that’s over.  They got annihilated last week, knocking them out of their system.  They now face a tough remaining schedule, with no current momentum.  They could continue to collapse and get annihilated, and after the loss, I don’t think the playoffs is happening for them.

Have different thoughts?  Comment your thoughts, or send me your Playoff Machine or Playoff Predictor simulations.

NFL Week 13 Picks

 

The fantasy regular season is almost over, but now, it’s time to focus on the real games. Who will grab a playoff spot? Who will be knocked out. Who will win and who will lose? Well, my weekly picks are back with playoff scenarios for many of the games. I had a great week last week, putting me at 12-4 for last week and 107-68-2 overall in straight up picks. Now, let’s get started.

Lock Of The Week

Patriots 30, Rams, 16

I’m sorry, but there’s no way on Earth that Jared Goff and his banged up Rams offense that lacks big name players. Even without Gronk. The Pats will have some problems without him, in tight end depth and lack of receivers, but Martellus Bennett should be able to fill in at tight end, for now. They at least need a good blocker though. The thing is, even if the Rams D pressures Brady, Brady knows how to quickly get rid of the ball. He should take advantage of the weak Rams secondary and have some passing success, scoring enough to beat LA’s weak offense. The Pats pass rush has been a problem, but the Rams o-line has problems too, and the Pats secondary should take care of a group of below mediocre Rams receivers easily.

Upset Of The Week

Giants, 30, Steelers, 26

Image result for eli manning and obj vs big ben and ab

I had many upsets, but I think this one stands out the most. The Steelers are fighting for an AFC North division win. The Giants are a top wild card contender that needs some more wins to lock up their spot. The Steelers offense really isn’t overly good. They have depth problems that have really hurt them this season, and the defense has not lived up to it’s expectations. The Giants on the other hand, have a strong offense led by star receiver OBJ and his QB, Eli Manning, and assisted by rookies Sterling Shepard and Paul Perkins. Rashad Jennings, Victor Cruz, Will Tye and Larry Donnell have also done their part to help the Giants succeed. The defensive moves this offseason turned out to be a big success. I think even on the road, this team has the capacity to beat a team like the Steelers. This win will really help them, and with a predicted win by me this week, maybe the Ravens can grab a playoff spot as well.

The Other Games

Chiefs, 16, Falcons, 13

49ers, 28, Bears, 20

Bengals, 37, Eagles, 36

Packers, 30, Texans, 27

Ravens, 30, Dolphins, 17

Jaguars, 29, Broncos, 19

Lions, 41, Saints, 26

Raiders, 33, Bills, 23

Cardinals, 34, Redskins, 30

Buccaneers, 17, Chargers, 16

Seahawks, 27, Panthers, 26

Colts, 26, Jets, 22

Thursday Night’s Game
Cowboys, 33, Vikings, 19

Want more analysis on games that have a meaning in how the season ends?  My match-up preview is back this week for you to take a look at.  Disagree with my picks?  Comment your picks below.  I will also be answering Start/Sit questions on my Twitter, @AndrewRoberts1.  

NFL Week 11 Picks: Playoff Contention Could Begin

It’s a little late, but my picks are back for Week 11.  Today I’ll be discussing my lock and my upset and predicting the other scores.  Comment your thoughts and tell me if you think I’m right or wrong.  This week, playoff contention also starts.  I may bring back my match-up preview next week, which breaks down major playoff scenarios.

 

Lock Of The Week

Steelers, 28, Browns, 23

I didn’t want to be biased and underestimate the 49ers, so I chose this game.  The Pats did lose to a bad team after losing to a good one last year.  The Browns are in big trouble.  They could go 0-16.  They would want to win a game like this, with the Steelers in the middle of struggles.  But Ladarius Green is back, and this offense will be on fire.  The Steelers will win simply because they will outscore the Browns.  They will score what the Browns offense never could, regardless of their opponent.  The Steelers have their Big 3, they have Ladarius Green, and they will win this one, even on the road.

 

Upset Of The Week

Packers, 33, Redskins, 23

For some reason, everyone’s saying the Redskins will win this.  The Packers should not be doubted.  They’ve had a rough few weeks, but you saw them in 2013.  They came back from a brutal start.  This is the time to take advantage of match-ups that could be favorable.  The Redskins are doing well, but typically, they’re no match for Green Bay.  They lost to Green Bay in the playoffs at home with no Jordy Nelson.  surely the Packers will win with him, even without Eddie Lacy.  Lacy barely made an impact last year.  So this game is the Packers’ to win.  I’m feeling it strongly, and I don’t no why nobody else is.

 

Other Games

Bengals, 33, Bills, 26

Colts, 27, Titans, 26

Cowboys, 23, Ravens, 19

Lions, 26, Jaguars, 23

Vikings, 23, Cardinals, 20

Chiefs, 19, Buccaneers, 6

Giants, 34, Bears, 19

Patriots, 37, 49ers, 26

Rams, 24, Dolphins, 20

Raiders, 23, Texans, 13

Seahawks, 27, Eagles, 18

 

 

Thursday Night’s Game

Panthers, 45, Saints, 41

 

Okay, so that’s all for my picks.  Comment your thoughts, and tell me if you think the games will change in my favor or not.

NFL Week 10 Picks

NFL Week 10 Picks
Last week was amazing for me.  I went 10-3.  This week, I didn’t have time to give my analysis for all the games, but I still have all the scores, plus a lock and upset.  I am now 78-53-2 overall.  Will I keep things up or will I fall this week?  Please comment your thoughts.
Lock Of The Week
Cardinals, 31, 49ers, 16
Image result for 49ers offense vs cardinals
The Cardinals have struggled, but on the road, against what’s usually a tough team, it will be hard to win.  Carlos Hyde is questionable, and he’s one of the best players on the Niners weak offense.  The Cardinals meanwhile, are a very balanced, strong team, typically.  So the 49ers could have it very tough.  They will get annihilated.  The Cardinals are at almost full health right now, and the 49ers have their few injuries affecting big name players.  So that will make it even tougher for them to win.  The Cardinals will prove themselves at least a decent team at home.
Upset Of The Week
Cowboys, 37, Steelers, 30
Image result for cowboys offense vs steelers
The Steelers are a good team with a strong offense, but the Cowboys have been really good, especially on offense.  Even on the road, I do not see them losing just yet.  Dak Presoctt is actually a reliable option at QB.  Their offense is really good, and can dominate in the right conditions.  I just don’t think this is the game for Pittsburgh.  I can feel that Dallas will surprise us with this one.
The Other Games
Packers, 27, Titans, 23
Saints, 22, Broncos, 17
Jets, 23, Rams, 16
Eagles, 34, Falcons, 27
Buccaneers, 13, Bears, 9
Vikings, 41, Redskins, 37
Panthers, 41, Chiefs, 24
Texans, 37, Jaguars, 30
Chargers, 34, Dolphins, 28
Patriots, 32, Seahawks, 26
Giants, 34, Bengals, 33
Thursday Night’s Game
Ravens, 27, Browns, 23
Actual Score: Ravens, 28, Browns, 7
This week actually has some watchable games.  Do you want more game input and some fantasy advice?  Check out my first fantasy article of the year, must-starts and must-sits for Week 10.  Comment your thoughts on my picks.

NFL Week 9 Picks: Decoding The Games of a Crazy Season

Byes: Patriots, Bengals, Texans, Redskins, Bears, Cardinals

 

Previous Results

Week 1: 9-7

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 9-7

Week 4: 8-7

Week 5: 9-5

Week 6: 9-6

Week 7: 9-5-1

Week 8: 6-6-1

Total through Week 8: 68-50-2
This year’s been a very confusing year, like 8 said in my midseason report. Sometimes, you get lucky and have a great week for fantasy or pick ’em. Other times, you have a nightmarish week. I’ve been very streaky in picks, but really, this has been the toughest season to pick in a while. But it’s also so confusing that if you’re lucky, you can match-up to experts. I match up to some, but some are also ahead of me, especially after last week. I went 6-6-1, and I’m hoping this week brings improvement. How do you think I’ll do. Comment your picks.
Lock Of The Week
Cowboys, 34, Browns, 15


Okay, like I said, I’ve been pretty impressed by the Cowboys offense. I think today, since the Cowboys have a spotty defense, there will be some moments when the Browns may take advantage of that, and Dak Prescott will throw to come back, and other times when the Browns are just being the Browns, and letting Dallas take a bit of a lead, and letting Ezekiel Elliott run wild, even with Jamie Collins in at linebacker. I think Collins just doesn’t fit the system in Cleveland. The Pats practically gave him away. I really didn’t like the trade. Back to the match-up, the Browns, like I said, are still the Browns, so the Cowboys should have an easy win all together. I don’t think the Browns have a chance in this game. There are only so many games left I can categorize as winnable for them. The Browns are in danger of going winless, unless they pull a major upset. That won’t happen this week, as a strong Dallas offense makes it look easy against the Browns D.

Upset Of The Week
49ers, 27, Saints, 20


I know people are saying the Saints are on to something, but the 49ers haven’t been terrible this season. They have shown the ability to score, surprisingly, and in a reasonable home match-up, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won. The Saints defense is just not acceptable, and is a defense for teams that need to put up points to take advantage of, even the teams that have offensive problems themselves. The Saints offense will put up a fight, but the Saints offense has began to slump a little bit, and the 49ers defense is really underrated. If they put up enough on offense, taking advantage of the bad defense, and their own defense comes through and prevents the Saints offense from breaking out of their slump, they can win this thing.

Dolphins, 27, Jets, 20


This may actually be an interesting match-up, a watchable game.  But why?  This is two mediocre to bad teams in an unpredictable but likely meaningless clash.  Well for one thing, the modern NFL fan has a fantasy focus, and they’re intrigued by some of the fantasy match-ups in this game.  The defenses are only okay for these two teams, not great, and these offenses have some intriguing players, especially for fantasy.  There’s match-ups like Jarvis Landry trying to prove that Revis Island is no longer an island.  It’ll be fun to watch Brandon Marshall go wild against an easy secondary.  It’s also a grudge match.  But I think at home, the Dolphins improved offense will show up, and the Jets offense may have a good fantasy performance, but in the end, the confidence they get from a home match-up should help them outscore the Jets.  What I used to say is, two close teams, home team wins.  Sometimes now, I feel that it’s stupid, but it still applies sometimes.  This is one of those games.
Ravens, 26, Steelers, 24

A lot of people think the Steelers are taking this game.  But the one thing that holds the Steelers up is when they’re healthy, their offense is dominant.  But they’re not at full health.  Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are back, but you can’t guarantee the usual performance in their first games back.  Brown actually only missed part of a game and a bye, but still.  The Ravens are pretty much healthy, and their offense may have an opportunity, especially at home.  This is really a battle of who can score more.  A healthy Ravens offense, in my opinion, tops a banged up Steelers offense, at home at least.  I think the Ravens will win, but in a grudge match.  I agree with NFL Network that they will beat each other up to try and get the win. But in the end, it goes back to who can score more and take advantage of a mediocre opposing defense.

Chiefs, 36, Jaguars, 29

Despite a good Chiefs defense, this will be an offensive shootout.  The Chiefs have the offense to take advantage of a Jags defense that hasn’t been great.  The Jaguars may be able to refurbish their offense with Greg Olson fired.  They were supposed to be a bounce back offense.  Maybe we’ll see that now.  Maybe Greg Olson just didn’t fit in with the rebuilt, revamped offense.  Finding a new offensive coordinator was a good move, and an interesting way to experiment with the offense.  If something’s not working, something needs to change to make it better.  Maybe that was what they needed.  But in the end, the Chiefs should outscore them.  Whatever their offense doesn’t score, their defense makes up.  The Chiefs could become a dangerous team if they keep this up.  The Jags would be doing the AFC West a favor by winning.  But the odds are definitely against them.

Giants, 38, Eagles, 36


We have another offensive shootout right here.  I think both of these defenses are overrated, and in the right conditions, these offenses can go wild.  I think this is another battle of who scores more.  The Giants may be a bit short at running back, but OBJ and the receivers should take advantage of cornerback problems for Philly.  The Eagles offense will take advantage of the Giants’ weak spots too.  They have a very balanced offense, but not as many stars at the positions they need them at in this match-up.  That will cost them.  The Giants have an offense like that, that fits to annihilate the Eagles defense.  This just isn’t the match-up for the Eagles in the end, even if they do score a lot.  Eli Manning and his offense will have control of the match-up.

Vikings, 24, Lions, 23


Especially at home, the Vikings will take advantage of the Lions weak defense.  One thing they can do if they don’t score enough even after that, is release a rear defense of their own.  This underrated Lions offense could surprise some teams, but is no match for the Vikings defense at home in their new stadium.  The Lions will embarrass themselves against the Vikings.  They will be under a lot of pressure in a stadium filled with big fans of the Vikings big D.  The Vikings will score enough that even against the tough Lions offense, the Vikings defense will be able to contain their opponent to just a little bit less.  It will be close to an upset, but an upset’s not happening.

Chargers, 27, Titans, 23


The Titans offense has improved greatly and the Chargers defense is an easy target, but the Chargers have shown that even with several setbacks, they are sleepers.  They’re the fourth team in a tough division, but outside of the division, they may sometimes play like a pretty good team.  They’re just nowhere near as good as the teams in their division.  The AFC West this season is amazing, in my opinion.  They will take advantage of an even easier target in the Titans defense, and grab the win at home.

Packers, 37, Colts, 30

Even with Randall Cobb out, I think the Packers take the win here.  The Colts don’t have the greatest defense, and Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson will take advantage of it.  This will be an offensive battle, but the Packers defense is tough, the Colts offense is struggling and the all the Packers offense was missing last season was Jordy Nelson.  This year, there offense should be and has been on fire, despite the fact that Eddie Lacy got hurt and probably ruined his good days for good.  They will overwhelm the Colts defense, and should definitely outscore their offense.  This is Green Bay’s to win, especially at home with the Colts, who are struggling.

Panthers, 30, Rams, 17


I don’t think the Panthers are making the playoffs, but I do think they’ll win some more games in this second half.  The Rams are going to start losing some games until they give Jared Goff a try too. Case Keenum will not last forever as the Rams’ starter.  The Rams will look desperate in this game.  Their passing game is their weak spot, so they can’t take advantage of the weak secondary.  Todd Gurley meanwhile, will be annihilated by the mighty Carolina pass rush.  The Rams do have a tough defense, but no matter how little the Panthers offense puts up, the Rams offense is the perfect fit for annihilation from the Carolina D, and they will hold the Rams to very minimal scoring.

Raiders, 19, Broncos, 16


This is one of the most watchable games of the week.  This is a really intriguing grudge match between two of the strong AFC West teams.  The Broncos defense is very tough, but the Raiders have a clutch offense to work past it.  Their defense is also very underrated and should be able to hold a banged up Broncos offense to less than 20 points.  Meanwhile, the Raiders should outscore the Broncos, just barely.  It may take a miraculous comeback, but they’re good at that.  They’ll use their late game strength to take care of a Broncos defense at will already be tired and ready to end the game by then.  At home, I think the Raiders should be able to pull off something like that, based on the way Derek Carr has played lately.

Seahawks, 23, Bills, 9

The Bills offense has so many injuries, that especially against the tough Seahawks defense, they won’t be able to score much.  The Seahawks don’t have a dominant offense, but this will be a game of defense.  It doesn’t matter if the Seahawks don’t have great offense.  They’ll hold the banged up Bills offense to under 20 points, and take advantage of the fact that the young Bills defense is only decent, and is still developing.  Even with LeSean McCoy, the Seahawks defense is just too strong to be beaten at home, by a team without their best receiver, with their running back just coming back from injury, and with a QB who’s better at running than throwing.  They just won’t let it happen.

Thursday Night’s Game
Falcons, 19, Buccaneers, 6

I originally would’ve picked the Bucs here, but I’m not surprised Atlanta won.  I’m facing the facts here.  The Falcons, at least through the regular season, are the real deal.  Especially without practically all their RBs and Vincent Jackson, the Bucs offense will not score enough to even come close to what Atlanta’s now revamped offense can do.  The defense is better too.  I’m also realizing that the Bucs defense isn’t as underrated as I said they were.  The one thing I am surprised by is the score.  The Bucs scored 28 points, and the Falcons scored 43 points to still fend them off after that.  I expected a game where the Bucs would fail to score, and the Falcons wouldn’t have to put in too much effort on offense to win.
So, that pretty much sums up my predictions for the week.  Again, please comment your thoughts.