Fantasy Football Must-Starts and Must-Sits for Week 10

At this point in the season, from a fantasy point of view, things are getting harder to decide.  So it’s about time I give you some advice to help sort out your starters from your bench players.  First off, here are my rankings at the 4 major positions for this week.  I have included ratings that I have found by combining the what the player’s rank would be if your draft was today, and some match-up analysis ratings.

week10ratings

Okay, so I’m going to go through each match-up, and for each match-up I will have a must-start or must-sit and the rating for that player.  The ratings are from 0 to 60, 60 is absolutely insane, and 0 is terrible.  Most players are somewhere in between.  Anyone who I say has a must-start match-up should be started under all means.  A must-sit should not be started under any conditions.

gbpackers2.jpg @ tennessee-titans.

Must-Start

Image result for randall cobb Randall Cobb, WR, GB (43.5, WR11)

The Titans defense doesn’t have much against the Packers.  Their number 1 corner is Perrish Cox, and I think especially if the Titans offense presents a bit of a surprising challenge like they have several times this season, the Packers will rely on throwing to Nelson and Randall Cobb.  Nelson always gets a lot of points, but there would be a significant increase this week for Cobb, especially with the backfield lacking depth.

 

denver-broncos-logo @ nosaints

 

Must-Start

Image result for devontae booker DeVontae Booker, RB, DEN (40.5, RB13)

C.J. Anderson is likely out for the season, and despite being the underdog in this match-up, the Saints pass rush is pathetically bad, and it will cost them.  The Broncos will take advantage of this, and it will be easier to get big time yardage from running the ball, possibly even more TDs.  This will be good for Booker, as he should get most of this backfield work.  So he should get you at least 10 points.  Trust me on this.

 

Image result for los angeles rams @ Jets-Logo

Must-Start

Image result for quincy enunwa Quincy Enunwa, WR, NYJ (34.5, WR26)

With Eric Decker on IR, Enunwa has gotten a lot more work.  The Rams secondary isn’t great, so I would start both Enunwa and Brandon Marshall.  Trumaine Johnson is really the only reliable corner for the Rams, and he’ll be covering Marshall, making things even easier for Enunwa.  The Jets are in favor here, but they will have to pass.  Things will be tough because both teams have their weaknesses.  Enunwa will be a key factor in whether the Jets win or lose.

atlfalcons @ philadelphia-eagles-logo

Must-Start

Image result for carson wentz Carson Wentz, QB, PHI (36, QB12)

I know Wentz has struggled lately, but I just have a feeling that the Eagles will take advantage of the Falcons’ weaknesses at home, look like themselves from earlier this season, and take the win.  Wentz should have it relatively easy as the Falcons do lack depth on defense, and there will be match-ups that other Eagles players take advantage of.  Jordan Matthews will take advantage of the fact that the Falcons only have one strong  corner.  Zach Ertz will also take advantage of the defensive depth problems that could help Wentz.  So, this is definitely a good match-up for Eagles offensive players.  It’s all in the hands of Carson Wentz how well they do.

Image result for chicago bears @ tampabaybuccaneers
Must-Start

 Jameis Winston, QB, TB (42.5, QB8)

This is like the ultimate must-start here.  The offense should improve with Doug Martin back, and the Bears defense may not be able to handle the offense.  Their pass rush is pathetic and the secondary is lacking depth and superstars.  After what he did last week, Mike Evans should be a major target too, and this is a great match-up for him too, because it could be a close game that’s decided by big plays if the Bucs defense lets their guard down too.  Either way, Winston should get involved in the action.

 

min-vikings-logo2.gif @ washingtonredskins2

Must-Sit

Image result for kirk cousins Kirk Cousins, QB, WSH (28.5, QB21)

This is really a tough match-up for Cousins.  He will be under a lot of pressure against a defense that has scored multiple TDs this season, and is one of the fantasy leaders defensively.  With that, it’s got to be hard for opposing QBs.  This entire offense will have a challenge, and it’s not any easier without Matt Jones at his best and DeSean Jackson or Josh Doctson even playing.  It’ll be hard or the Redskins to even win, even with a strong secondary of their own.

 

kansas-city-chiefs-logo @ carolina-panthers-logo

Must-Start

 

  Spencer Ware, RB, KC (40, RB14)

Ware should come back strong this week, especially after what he’s done so far this year, most of it with Jamaal Charles active.  Charcandrick West may still get some backfield work, but he was semi-bust material last week, and Ware’s been awesome all year.  Ware might have earned the job for even when Charles is active.  I know the Panthers pass rush is a lot tougher than the secondary, but the Chiefs are lacking receiver depth with Jeremy Maclin out, so the Chiefs may have to run the ball.  Just the fact that he’s getting a heavier workload could be to his advantage.

hou-texans @ jacksonvile-jaguars

Must-Sit

Image result for allen robinson Allen Robinson, WR, JAX

I actually just traded for Robinson, because somebody wanted to sell him high, and I needed an extra receiver. I have three other good receivers to start though, OBJ, Brandon Marshall and Jarvis Landry.  Now that I did my research, I realized I need to take my own advice.  This Texans defense is very good, Robinson hasn’t lived up to his expectations, and is only at about the level of Allen Hurns this year, and the Jags have had a tough time against tough defenses.  The Texans have one of those defenses.

 

Dolphins-logo @ San_Diego_Chargers

Must-Start

 Image result for antonio gates Antonio Gates, TE, SD (43, TE5)

There aren’t many must start tight ends, but Gates is in a pretty good match-up for this week.  Gates should take advantage of a Dolphins defense that has it’s problems.  Hunter Henry is questionable, and Gates is back to full health.  I think the Chargers will win this game because they will tsake advantage of favorable positional match-ups, and Gates is favored in his match-up.

 

sf-49ers.jpg @ az-cards.jpg

Must-Sit

 Carlos Hyde, RB, SF (27, RB35)

Hyde is already questionable, and may be limited if he’s active.  The Cardinals defense is also very tough, so Hyde will have additional problems that the entire offense will face.  Even with the Cardinals slumping, this is a tough, unfavorable match-up.  Hyde is a bust for this week, whether he plays or not.

dalcowboyslogonew @pittsburgh-steelers

 Must-Sit

Image result for jesse james steelers Jesse James, TE, PIT (27, TE20)

Image result for jason witten            Jason Witten, TE, PIT & DAL (32, TE16)

Both of thse tight ends are in a bad position.  James won’t get as heavy a workload with Ladarius Green returning, and the Cowboys have decent defense that can pressure him and his offense.  Witten is facing a pretty tough linebacker corps, along with a strong week for a lot of tight ends.  Witten’s value is going down solely because he’s not a Top 12 tight end.  He’s also getting older, so he can only do so much for your fantasy team.  Tight ends won’t be targeted much in this game, especially with Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant healthy for it.

seattle-seahawks.jpg @ New_England_Patriots.jpg

Must-Sit

Image result for christine michael Christine Michael, RB, SEA (28.5, RB32)

Michael has not been as good in the last couple of games, and the Patriots defense won’t let him bulldoze through.  C.J. Prosise is cutting into his workload, and soon Thomas Rawls will too.  He’s not the lock-in RB1 at this point.  Michael has a very tough match-up, his workload is shrinking, and he’s not a reliable option this Sunday.  Michael could soon become a drop candidate if he does not have another big game.

cincinnati-bengals @ new-york-giants-logo

Must-Start

 

 Sterling Shepard, NYG, WR (36.5, WR24)

        Victor Cruz, NYG, WR   (33, WR29)

OBJ has a good match-up, but he’s not the only Giants receiver that will get a fantasy workload.  Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz could be deciding factors in whether the Giants win or lose.  They have good match-ups has the secondary’s attention will be on OBJ, so all three receivers will put up a lot of points.  If you have OBJ, Shepard or Cruz, start your Giants receiver this week.

Okay, so this week is going to be a week of close match-ups.  But there shouldn’t be any tough decisions fantasy-wise if you start the must-starts, sit the must-sits, and go by my rating index at QB, RB, WR and TE.

 

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NFL Week 4 Picks

 

 

BYE: Eagles, Packers

My Record: 27-21 (28-21 w/TNF)

Week 1: 9-7

Week 2: 9-7

Week 3: 9-7

 

I may have not had the greatest start, but looking on the bright side, I’m 1-0 this week, better than Pete Prisco on the season, and my picks for Week 4 are here.  Who do you have winning?

 

Lock Of The Week

 

Cardinals, 26, Rams, 23

Image result for david johnson vs. rams

 

Look, the Rams are 2-1, but first of all, the Rams would be 1-2 if it wasn’t for the nasty storm that hit Tampa Bay, and Case Keenum should not be their starting QB.  The Rams only beat the Seahawks because their offense wasn’t doing anything against a tough Rams defense.  That was in LA, against an offense that sometimes has to be saved by the overpowered defense in order for the team to win games.  This is in Arizona, a great all-around team.  The offense will be tough on the Rams D, and the Rams offense will be under as much pressure as they were against Seattle.  But this time, the Cardinals offense will actually take advantage of that fact, and top a good, but not great Rams defense.

 

Upset Of The Week

 

Buccaneers, 25, Broncos, 23

Image result for broncos vs. bucs

I know, Trevor Siemian has maintained the Broncos good offensive status, and the Broncos defense may be unstoppable.  Especially for Jameis Winston and the young Bucs offense, who can get pressured easily.  But there’s one underrated force that you probably aren’t paying attention to.  The Bucs defense.  The Bucs defense could actually surprise the Broncos.  I think that Denver could come up short, if this Bucs D wakes up and strikes.  I know how good the Broncos have been, but at home, this is winnable for Tampa Bay, and it’s a big upset, but the Buccaneers are a big sleeper team, and I thought going into the season the Broncos were overrated and will lose some games most people don’t think they will.  Those predictions is probably wrong, but these teams will show signs of those potentials.

 

The Other Games

 

Jaguars, 24, Colts, 23

Image result for blake bortles vs. colts

With no true home team, this game is an interesting one.  I think there is a chance that the Jags eventually move to London, so they may have slight advantage because they don’t have as many fans when they play at home, but they won’t need it.  Even though the Jaguars are 0-3, they just barely lost to the Ravens, and the Chargers are just on fire, so they were though, and the Packers are a good team that beat them.  The Colts lost to the Lions, and even though they tried to come back, they were losing during the whole game.  They also lost to the Broncos, who are good, and somehow they beat the Chargers.  Doesn’t make sense.  The point is the Colts are unpredictable, but haven’t actually done that great even at a better record.  If they have a match-up that works for them, they win.  Otherwise, they lose.  The Jaguars are ready to strike, and they won’t let the Colts work their inconsistent, but strong magic.

 

Redskins, 31, Browns, 23

 

Look, even with Terrelle Pryor shining at WR/QB, the Browns aren’t going to win with a 3rd and 4th string quarterback.  Corey Coleman is also hurt and Josh Gordon may never be back.  The Redskins haven’t been great yet, but they’ve had very tough match-ups.  This week should be a lot easier, and Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense will lash out and annihilate the Browns.  The defense has nothing to stop them, and the offense shouldn’t score enough to challenge them, even though the Redskins defense is only mediocre.  This should be a win for Washington, especially on their own turf.

 

Patriots, 35, Bills, 23

Image result for pats-bills garoppolo

I don’t know what the Patriots are doing at QB, but I know the Pats, they will not start Edelman at QB.  They will refuse to and avoid playing him at QB when possible.  I’m suspecting Jimmy Garoppolo gets the start since he’s had longer to recover, but you never know.  Assuming he starts, he means real business, and will make sure to put up plenty of points to prevent the Bills, who actually might’ve been a decent team if Watkins wasn’t hurt and the defense doesn’t get embarrassed by this, to challenge.  The Bills will score a good amount, but Garoppolo and the Pats will find a way to be better.  I really like them for that.

 

Seahawks, 27, Jets, 23

Image result for seahawks vs jets

The Seahawks were in some turmoil when the offense couldn’t get going, but they got some momentum last week, until Russell Wilson sprained his MCL.  Luckily, he’s healed quickly and will likely play, but will he be himself?  Doesn’t matter.  Especially against the Seahawks, who also have a very tough defense, I do not see the Jets coming back from last week in any sense.  Eric Decker is now out, and the Jets still don’t have a good tight end.  Their only good weapon, Brandon Marshall has Richard Sherman to deal with!  He won’t be going anywhere.  The Jets defense is all right, but look, the Seahawks defense is a lot better, and like I said, the Jets will not bounce back from last week in any sense.

 

Panthers, 37, Falcons, 30

Image result for Cam Newton vs. falcons

The Falcons have been good the last two weeks, especially offensively, and even with a big weak spot at corner that could fail to cover Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, the rest of the Carolina defense is good.  The Falcons defense isn’t that good, actually, even if they look good, and they could give up a lot of points to Carolina.  This is going to be a high scoring game, and both teams will make an effort to win, but in the end, I just don’t see the Falcons scoring quite enough on the Panthers defense to top them.  Besides, I think Cam Newton and his offense will really excel in this game, so the Falcons will have tough competition.

 

Lions, 27, Bears, 26

Image result for matthew stafford vs. bears

The Bears have already struggled this season.  Now they’re without Jay Cutler and Jeremy Langford.  I never really thought the Bears would do that good anyways.  Even though they do now have Brian Hoyer and former Lions running back Joique Bell, who might actually be more developed than Langford, the Lions have a pretty good offense that will take advantage of the weak Bears defense.  This will be another offensive battle, and the Lions in this case have a better offense than the Bears.  They may be without Ameer Abdullah, but Matthew Stafford has a great connection with Marvin Jones, and also has strong weapons in Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin and Eric Ebron.  Even pass-catching running back Theo Riddick is getting some good receiving yards in. So I think the Lions are capable of beating the Bears on the road.  This game is slightly in their favor, and they have a good offense to prove themselves.

 

Texans, 34, Titans, 29

Image result for texans-titans

Even with J.J. Watt out for the season, I still think the Texans are the favorite to win the AFC South.  This match-up is crucial, and I still think the Texans can win it at home, even in a now tough AFC South that anyone could win.  This is another great game for Lamar Miller, like Week 1’s lock over the Bears was.  He will wreck the Titans defense.  The entire offense is in good hands against the undeveloped Titans defense.  The Texans defense may have its issues without J.J. Watt, but look, the Texans defense still isn’t bad.  They have Vince Wilfork, Jadeveon Clowney, Johnathan Joseph and maybe Brian Cushing.  They’re definitely better than the Titans defense.  The Titans offense is good, but will come up short against the Texans D.  It could be a close one though.

 

Ravens, 26, Raiders, 24

Image result for derek carr vs. ravens

When these two played last year it was in Oakland, and Seth Roberts just barely got the Raiders the win.  But things are different now.  The Raiders are getting good and the Ravens have improved from last season.  The Ravens are 3-0, but beat the Bills, Jaguars and Browns.  Not so tough competition.  The Raiders beat the Saints and Titans, and lost to the Falcons.  It was tough to beat the Saints and Falcons.  The Falcons offense lashed out in Week 2, and the Saints are just a high scoring team.  The Falcons won in an offensive shootout when they were featured against the Saints on Monday Night Football.  Back to this game though, the Ravens and Raiders are now at about equal level. The Ravens have slightly better offensive depth, while the Raiders have more defensive stars.  I think in a home match-up, the Ravens will score slightly more, and pick up the wins.  I used to always say, two even teams, home team wins, and pick home teams even more than I do now, but now I make some exceptions if injuries, momentum and pressure are involved.  This is no exception.

 

Cowboys, 38, 49ers, 23

 

The Cowboys are without Dez Bryant and Tony Romo, so this could actually be a tough match-up, but against the 49ers, a 4-12 team last year, Dak Prescott’s revised offense should be able to win it, even on the road.  Despite seeing the 49ers as a team who could produce offensively in the first two weeks, in Week 3, they looked like the same old, terrible Niners.  Which Niners will they be this week?  Honestly, I think they will produce something on offense against a below average Cowboys defense.  Now that you think about it, how the 49ers do on offense really depends on how good the defense is that they’re facing.  Maybe they just had some tough defensive match-ups last year and Blaine Gabbert, even Colin Kaepernick could lead the 49ers to a decent record.  Maybe 8-8.  But this week, the 49ers defense, even being mediocre, will be overwhelmed by Dak Prescott’s tricks.  So I see scoring for San Francisco, but not a win in the end.

 

Chargers, 33, Saints, 27 OT

Image result for chargers vs. saints

The Saints have a good, consistent offense, but the Chargers offense has really fired up this season.  Look at what Melvin Gordon has done after a bust season last year.  Even with Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead leaving for the season with torn ACLs, this offense has produced week after week.  The defense lew an overtime game and a game with 2 minutes left against the Colts, but the Chargers haven’t failed to score and stay in it.  Philip Rivers, Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams have really stepped up for this offense, with Antonio Gates (for now), Allen and Woodhead out.  The Saints will score a lot, but it won’t be enough to match Chargers.  This game will be a close offensive shootout that could go to overtime.  Both defenses will be annihilated, and both offenses will thrive.  But in the end, the Chargers haven’t lost at home, and they won’t end that.  With home field advantage, the Chargers do have a slight advantage over the Saints.  They could have a pretty good season, but the problem is, so will everyone in their division.

 

Steelers, 40, Chiefs, 37

 

I just can’t see the Chiefs offense thriving in Pittsburgh, and I can’t see the Steelers being annihilated two weeks straight, especially at home this week.  The Chiefs defense did annihilate the Jets last week, but Le’Veon Bell is back, and this Steelers offense will start to get really good.  Even though the Steelers defense isn’t great, with a home field advantage, I think the Steelers can win this tough Sunday Night match-up.   In a neutral match-up, I think the Chiefs would win.  But the Steelers have home field advantage.  Their defensive weaknesses won’t show, and the Chiefs’ mild offensive depth problems will.  Home field advantage sure can mean a lot in a tough Sunday Night game.  

 

Vikings, 20, Giants, 16

Image result for vikings defense vs. giants

You’ve seen what the Vikings defense can do.  They’ve kept the Vikings undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater out.  The Giants don’t have Rashad Jennings or Shane Vereen.  The Vikings defense will ruin them.  The Giants offense isn’t prepared for what’s coming at them.  The Giants defense is good too, but they have weaknesses, The Vikings will take advantage of those.  Look, this will be a defensive game, a low scoring match-up that comes really close.  But in the end, especially with home field advantage, the Vikings will take advantage of what they can do, and take the win.  The Giants can’t do much about it.  I’m praying for this Vikings defense to do well, because they’re on my fantasy team.  But the Vikings can win this thing, I believe in them, and their defense.

 

Thursday Night’s Game

 

Bengals, 20, Dolphins, 19

 

I knew the Bengals could pull this one off and they did.  The defense was clutch as expected, and the offense thrived, even without Tyler Eifert or many receiving weapons at all.  They relied mainly on their rushing game, and annoyed the Dolphins pass rush, who was having trouble handling too much at once. A.J. Green had an awesome game too.  I knew this game would be a low scorer, somewhat close, where the Bengals defense was the main force in their win, and dominated.  I knew the offense wouldn’t score much but would do its job and not blow the game.  I knew the Dolphins offense wouldn’t do enough to prevent the Bengals from winning, and I had a feeling the defense wouldn’t be able to save them. I’m not surprised the Bengals got the win here.  

NFL Week 7 Picks

NFL Week 7 Picks

Yay!  Another great week last week.  I went 12-2, and now am 61-32, ahead of Pete Prisco.  If you count my Thursday Night pick, it’s 62-32.  So, let’s keep this up.  Is the NFL turning out the way I expected, after a cuckoo week 1-3, or am I just getting smarter and keeping up with experts opinions better?

Lock Of The Week

Chargers, 28, Raiders, 26

week-7-lock

The Chargers will blowout the Raiders again.

These Raiders definitely are getting better, and are no longer the worst NFL team, (that’s a 4-way tie for Titans, Bucs, Redskins and 49ers).  Derek Carr is becoming a much better quarterback, and his weaponry improved when they added Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Clive Walford.  But one thing for sure, remember how I said Latavius Murray would suck?  He sorta has the past couple weeks.  That should give backup Roy Helu a chance to finally break out against an empty Chargers rush defense.  Taiwan Jones or Marcel Reece could even contribute.  And, the passing game can work around Brandon Flowers and Eric Weddle.  Flowers will surely have Cooper covered, but Michael Crabtree will really have his chance to shine, along with tight ends Clive Walford and Mychal Rivera.  One will have a weak linebacker guarding them, and that one will score.  The other one won’t because they’ll have Eric Weddle.

But the Chargers are in a better position, if they can remain healthy.  The rush could be in trouble, but the passing game can save the Chargers’ butts.  Passing back Danny Woodhead could even see a big game, let alone Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates.  And even if Allen, Gates and Stevie Johnson are all out, they still have guard-less Malcom Floyd and Jacoby Jones, and no matter what Ladarius Green is primed for a breakout as Gates could be limited even if he plays.  Charles Woodson may be an annoyance to Keenan Allen or Antonio Gates, but the rest of the receiving game should be fine, and still be at full speed, giving San Diego the edge.  Besides, although Oakland may score some reception touchdowns where unguarded, but the running game doesn’t have enough to take advantage of the weak rush D.

Notable Locks: Rams over Browns, Seahawks over 49ers

Upset Of The Week

Jaguars, 7, Bills, 6

week-7-upset

The Jaguars will run away with the win and turn around the Bills.

Look, the Bills are DONE until they can maintain health.  They’re missing QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Karlos Williams and healing RB LeSean McCoy and WRs Percy Harvin, (non injury related) Sammy Watkins, Marquise Goodwin and Marcus Easley.  That leaves the starting six (excluding lineman) looking like this:

QB E.J. Manuel
RB Daniel Herron
RB Anthony Dixon
WR Robert Woods
WR Chris Hogan
TE Charles Clay

CHRIS HOGAN????  WHO’S THAT? It has gotten that bad.  At least (knock on wood), Charles Clay can play, and hopefully Harvin and McCoy can suck it up.  Then it would be Manuel, McCoy, Herron, Harvin, Woods, Clay.  Not bad.  But no offense means no scoring, and no scoring means this game will be a bore-a-thon.   At least Dan Carpenter can knock in a couple field goals to keep the audience awake.

But everyone will wake up in the fourth quarter, when the Jaguars take charge and the Bills defense finally wears off.  They have plenty of improving weapons.  No T.J. Yeldon, but Denard Robinson, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas (if active) and Marcedes Lewis should be enough the get the game winning touchdown.  Even without Thomas the snoozy, banged up Bills offense will fall to an improving Jaguars team that is destined to get more than four wins for the first time in ages.  They already have won, and have another easy one this week, so 2 down, 3 to go.  That just means winning one of every three from Week 8 on.  Is it possible?  Keep an eye on these Jaguars and they might surprise you big time.

Notable Upsets: Titans over Falcons, Lions over Vikings

Other Games

Seahawks, 34, 49ers, 24
Patriots, 30, Jets, 17
Dolphins, 10, Texans, 6
Chiefs, 27, Steelers, 14
Cardinals, 23, Ravens, 20
Rams, 17, Browns, 7
Colts, 33, Saints, 13
Titans, 20, Falcons, 13
Panthers, 27, Eagles, 23
Giants, 24, Cowboys, 23
Redskins, 28, Buccaneers, 27
Lions, 31, Vikings, 30

Team Of The Week
1. This team hadn’t been to the super bowl before the 21st Century.
2. This team has three well known modern mottos.
3. This team has a star quarterback, cornerback and running back.
4. This team plays near a famous video game company’s American headquarters.
5. This team lost Super Bowl XLIX.
What team is this?  Guess in comments.
Last Week: Jets