NFL Week 9 Picks

Last week was shaky, but come on, it’s time for me to get real.  I’m basing my picks from here on out on a combination of one, what I’ve seen, and two, as always, the predictions out of my mind and my gut.  So, again, lets GET REAL.  Now on with my picks.

Lock Of The Week

Patriots, 41, Redskins, 17

The Redskins defense is no match for Brady's dominance.
The Redskins defense is no match for Brady’s dominance.

This game is kind of a joke.  But we are the Patriots.  We can’t treat it like that.  We have to prepare for it like any other game.  Still, this will be a big blowout.  Both of the best defenders on the team are questionable.  Without Ryan Kerrigan and DeAngelo Hall, the Patriots will put on a show.

Blount Force Trauma will still get guarded if Kerrigan plays.  But Dion Lewis will have a big game, even if Terrance Knighton, the third biggest component, guards him.  This will still be a bigger game for Brady to pass to all his weapons.  I could see Danny Amendola having a huge game, with Gronk or Edelman guarded by Hall.  In the last three games, Amendola is 16 for 19 with 202 yards and a touchdown.  In weeks 1-5, Amendola was 10 for 13 with only 98 yards and a touchdown.

On the Redskins side, their rushing game will not be functional against a heavily rush based Patriots defense.  But if DeSean Jackson returns, he has potential to be a star.  But with Devin McCourty on him some of the time, Jackson may be limited.  If he’s out, I’d expect Jamison Crowder’s surprises to continue.  Sure, he’s hasn’t yet been effective in the end zone, but he’ll be tempted to score his first NFL touchdown.  Jordan Reed will get the rest of Devin McCourty or Patrick Chung, so tight ends won’t be functional either.

Notable Locks: Saints over Titans, Bengals over Browns, Jets over Jaguars, Steelers over Raiders

Upset Of The Week

Colts, 51, Broncos, 33

The Colts offense will put on a show to shock Denver, and place them in the loss column.
The Colts offense will put on a show to shock Denver, and place them in the loss column.

 The Colts have more potential in their offense than you might think, even against the almighty Broncos defense.  The Colts’ running backs will have full guard.  Frank Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw have DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller on them.  But the receivers and tight ends are in better hands.  Really good players like T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Dwayne Allen will have full guard (Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby, Brandon Marshall or T.J. Ward), Guys that haven’t gotten their chance yet this year, like Andre Johnson, Philip Dorsett and Coby Fleener, could have dominant games and lead the Colts offense to a breakout.

The Colts defense fits the Broncos offense pretty darn well.  C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have D’ Qwell Jackson and Robert Mathis.  DeMaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have Vontae Davis and Greg Toler.  Vernon Davis should also have Darius Butler.  That leaves just Cody Latimer and Owen Daniels, oh, and also now third string tight end Virgil Green.  Thy still can rack up lots of points, but they will have a little more trouble than Indy getting to the end zone, giving        Indy the upset win.

Notable Upsets: Panthers over Packers, Cowboys over Eagles

Other Games

Jets, 37, Jaguars, 27

Bills, 28, Dolphins, 21

Bengals, 28, Browns, 21

Steelers, 20, Raiders, 16

Saints, 24, Titans, 9

Chargers, 24, Bears, 20

Cowboys, 34, Eagles, 27

Giants, 20, Buccaneers, 17

Panthers, 17, Packers, 6 (NOTE: Panthers defense dominates, Packers fail to score on them)

Vikings, 37, Rams, 34

Falcons, 34, 49ers, 20

Team Of The Week

  1. This team has typically been good, but is a feast or famine team
  2. This team lost a star this off season, but this player has been disappointing on his new team.
  3. This team’s defensive coordinator is the brother of a head coach in the AFC.
  4. This team’s division was very weak last year.
  5. This team has a quarterback I would consider top 10 all time material.

What team is this?  Guess in comments.

Last Week: Texans

NFL Week 3 Picks

The first two weeks have been full of upsets, and here are some locks, upsets and other scores to watch for in Week 3.

Lock Of The Week
Patriots, 37, Jaguars, 14

Tom Brady and the Patriots should have a dominant game against the Jags.  On offense, they Blount Force Trauma should get more touches after a quiet week 2 return.  I’d expect a TD from him.  The only road blocks are star linebacker Paul Posluszny and rookie defensive lineman Michael Bennett.  He can work around that.  I also expect a lot of passing touchdowns.  Julian Edelman doesn’t have a starting corner to watch him, so either safety James Sample or safety Jonathan Cyprien is left to guard him.  With Edelman and Gronk under that pressure, expect sleepers Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and Scott Chandler to show up, about a touchdown each.  The Patriots can look forward to a relatively easy match.

Tom Brady will stun the Jaguars defense with consistent scoring.
Tom Brady will stun the Jaguars defense with consistent scoring.

On D, they should be all set as well.  Running backs TJ Yeldon and Denard Robinson are going nowhere when the defense has Rob Ninkovich, Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo to cover.  Last year they also had the added pressure of Vince Wilfork and Akeem Ayers, but Mayo was hurt.  I wouldn’t expect it to be much worse, especially if you put Jamie Collins and Don’t A Hightower in too.  And Marcedes Lewis, who has starred to start the year, will be guarded by Devin McCourty.  And Allen Robinson will have Malcolm Butler on him.

Lock Notables
Colts over Titans, Seahawks over Bears, Texans over Buccaneers, Giants over Redskins

Upset Of The Week
Lions, 24, Broncos, 20

This might sound silly to you, but it’s not really that surprising.  Peyton Manning is getting older, and at the same time, Matthew Stafford is on the uprise.  Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah will get touches, but will get DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller as guards.  It would be easier to throw the rock.  Not just to Megatron, who will have Aqib Talib by his side, but should break through once Talib wears down, but Golden Tate.  Tate, the former Seahawk, doesn’t have an amazing second string corner to guard him.  Tate should see action, along with tight ends Eric Ebron, thenewly signed Tim Wright and possibly Brandon Pettigrew if he’s healthy.

While on the Lions D, it’s a better fit for the Broncos offense.  DeMaryius Thomas will have Stephen Tulloch on him like white on snow.  Emmanuel Sanders and Owen Daniels may get TDs, but the overall options are limited in Denver.  I think Sanders’ season will be a low point in his career, and Daniels isn’t quite a perfect fit in the Denver style offense.  Expect an early season loss today out of Denver.  What about CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman.  Ngata and DeAndre Levy should be enough to hold them up.  So, the Lions could have a huge win vs Denver today.

The Broncos defense will be in for a surprise when Matthew Stafford throws fire.
The Broncos defense will be in for a surprise when Matthew Stafford throws fire.

Upset Notables
Rams over Steelers, Cowboys over Falcons

Other Scores
Jets, 37, Eagles, 30
Dolphins, 17, Bills, 14
Ravens, 27, Bengals, 23
Rams, 17, Steelers, 14
Browns, 14, Raiders, 9
Colts, 30, Titans, 24
Texans, 30, Buccaneers, 17
Packers, 33, Chiefs, 31
Chargers, 28, Vikings, 23
Cowboys, 27, Falcons, 10
Giants, 28, Redskins, 7
Seahawks, 33, Bears, 16
Panthers, 41, Saints, 21
Cardinals, 31, 49ers, 30

Team Of The Week
1. This team’s quarterback got severely injured last season.
2. This team has been in last in their division for the last couple years.
3. In 2013, this team’s division was the toughest.
4. This team is named after an animal.
5. This team is located somewhere in the Midwest.

Last Week: Chiefs