Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

Welcome to Article #2 of my 2019 MLB preseason power rankings.  In this article, though I am covering teams that are unlikely to contend, all of these teams have something to look forward to, and I will be discussing that.  Click the links below for other articles in the series (I will add them as I post them):

 

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2019 MLB Preseason Power Rankings Series:

Ranking The Teams #30-25, My Version: The Bottom of the Barrel

Ranking The Teams #24-19, My Version: Who will have to Wait till Next Year?

Ranking The Teams #18-13, My Version: Who else Misses out on Playoff Contention?

Ranking The Teams #12-7, My Version: Who has Playoff Chances?

Ranking The Teams #6-1, My Version: Super Six?

I also released my 3rd annual preseason Baseball Bits!

Let’s jump right back into the rankings:

24. seattle-mariners-logo Seattle Mariners

The Case for the Mariners

There were rumors that the Mariners would finally rebuild this off-season after Jerry Dipoto’s roster retooling has failed the Mariners time and time again. But Dipoto was back at it this winter. He did make the roster a bit younger, but there were no blatant signs of a full rebuild. The Mariners did, however, trade away Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, two of the team’s best players. He also let Nelson Cruz walk. That will lead to some regression this season. Most teams regress after losing their best player or two. Look at what happened to the Tigers without Justin Verlander. Adding Edwin Encarnacion gives them a new centerpiece for now, but how long will he remain elite, and how long will Dipoto keep him around for?

Something to Look Forward to

The Mariners haven’t really found an identity yet this season.  But by the end of the year, I think they will be known as a power-hitting team.  Encarnacion and Jay Bruce add power to a lineup that already has Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon, and other big hitters.  Maybe Kyle Seager will even bounce back this year.  Dipoto seems to have confidence in Seager.  The rotation may struggle, but this lineup could be a nightmare at times for opposing pitchers.

Projected Finish: 71-91, 5th in AL West

23. san diego-padres San Diego Padres

The Case for the Padres

The Padres are taking small steps back towards contention after a rebuild before 2017. They signed 1B Eric Hosmer before 2018 to enhance their lineup, and they enhanced it further by signing 26-year old free agent 3B Manny Machado, one of the top two free agents on the market. They also added 2B Ian Kinsler for the year as well and are targeting top remaining SPs like Dallas Keuchel. They should continue to gradually add pieces to the puzzle as their incoming prospects develop and make their way up. Top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. will likely make his way up this year. Though the Padres won’t contend in 2019, the future is bright in San Diego, and maybe Tatis’ first full season in 2020 will spark something alongside a few more veterans.

Something to Look Forward to

I think the #1 thing to look forward to here is what’s ahead in San Diego.  Padres fans might be disappointed in the team right now, but that will all change in the years to come.  After attempting to rush to contention in 2016, the Padres have tried to take things slow this time around.  It has made for a painful few years in San Diego, but the Padres are more likely to succeed now that they have a mix of veteran talent (Machado, Hosmer, Myers) and intriguing prospects like Tatis.  The rotation is still a major issue though.  That will have to be fixed before the Padres even think about contention.

Projected Finish: 71-91, 4th in NL West

22. texas-rangers Texas Rangers

The Case for the Rangers

The Rangers may not be what they used to be, especially with 3B Adrian Beltre retiring. But they won’t be as bad as people think. People don’t give enough credit to the non-roster invites Texas handed out this off-season. A lot of the players they added deserved major league deals, but waited too long and missed out. This group includes OF Hunter Pence, two-way player Matt Davidson, 2B Logan Forsythe, and UT Danny Santana. They also added Asdrubal Cabrera on an MLB deal. These veterans could add to the lineup’s core of Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus, and Nomar Mazara. The rotation has some nice veteran pieces as well, but there is no true ace – most of the starters are about equally talented. The bullpen could also be better, but this team should still avoid last place in the AL West.

Something to Look Forward to

The Rangers may not be ready for contention yet, and the future is uncertain.  But their lineup could be pretty powerful considering the veterans they added this off-season like Pence and Cabrera.  Andrus,  Gallo, and Mazara already made for a pretty powerful trio.

Projected Finish: 73-89, 4th in AL West

21. Related image Tampa Bay Rays

The Case for the Rays

The Rays were on the verge of contention in 2018 despite making numerous subtractions in the 2017-18 off-season and at the 2018 Trade Deadline. They lost more of their players in 2018 free agency, and they didn’t bring in replacements. I think that their money-saving tactics will get to them in 2019. It will be hard to maintain a viable rotation even with the opener.  This is especially true when you consider the fact that #3 starter Tyler Glasnow has minimal experience as a starting pitcher. The lineup lacks a true centerpiece as it has since Evan Longoria left. Playoff contention is not sustainable for the second year in a row as the Rays continue to subtract. What they are doing is starting a rebuild. The 2018 team was never supposed to contend, and I expect the same here.

Something to Look Forward to

Though I see the team taking a step back after dumping away some of their veterans, young talent has already began to populate the roster, and it could mean good things for the future of this team.  Yandy Diaz is an underrated player, and Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle, Glasnow, Brent Honeywell, Christian Arroyo, and others will also make a significant impact in the long run if they don’t in 2019.

Projected Finish: 75-87, 4th in AL East

20. Toronto_Blue_Jays Toronto Blue Jays

The Case for the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are beginning a rebuild after trading away Josh Donaldson and Curtis Granderson and releasing Troy Tulowitzki. Yet they are in the same spot as last year. This is because their next wave of prospects, headlined by future All-Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is on their way up. I believe that if these prospects live up to expectations, the team will not regress so much from last year. If things work out, the Jays might be a couple starting pitchers away from contention by 2020. But for now, the Blue Jays will sit around .500 as they struggle to keep up with their AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

Something to Look Forward to

The Jays could contend very soon, as they were able to get rid of declining players without suffering from the holes they left.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and others give me confidence in the future of the team.  This year, they’ll look to replace the players the Blue Jays moved on from.

Projected Finish: 79-83, 3rd in AL East

19. Related image Oakland Athletics

The Case for the Athletics

The A’s are coming off a surprise playoff appearance. But though they did add SP Marco Estrada and INF Jurickson Profar to replace 2B Jed Lowrie (left in free agency) and Sean Manaea (injured), expect regression in 2019. Their miraculous playoff run will not be repeated. The rotation lacks the same depth is had in 2018 with Jharel Cotton and Manaea injured. The bullpen could make up for that, especially if the A’s use the opener again, but a playoff contender needs a good rotation and multiple power hitters in the lineup. You could argue the A’s already have the latter in Matt Chapman and Khris Davis, but the rotation is definitely a problem, and the A’s could have used another power hitter.

Something to Look Forward to

If Chapman, Matt Olson, and Davis produce like they did last year, this lineup could lead the Athletics to exceed expectations.  This lineup also gives me confidence that though the Athletics don’t have much money, they are capable of crafting contending teams that are mostly homegrown.

Projected Finish: 80-82, 3rd in AL West


That’s all for this 2nd article in my MLB 2019 preseason power rankings.  Stay tuned for more MLB and Red Sox coverage soon.  In my next power ranking article, I’ll be looking at the teams in the middle of the pack, #18-13.

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MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers

Welcome to my 2nd annual MLB free agency predictions.  Last off-season, things took a long time to get going due to a relatively dull free agent market.  This year, that is not the case.  We might have the best MLB free agent class in the history of my blog, and it’s bound to get going any minute now.  That’s why I’m releasing my predictions in November and December this year rather than January.  I wanted to get these out before the Winter Meetings, where a lot of big moves could occur.

Today, I will be sharing my predictions for free agent pitchers.  Feel free to comment with your thoughts.

Below is my tentative schedule for my 2018-19 MLB free agency coverage.

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MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Coverage – Tentative Schedule

Week of November 19: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers

Week of November 19 or 26: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Catchers & Infielders

Week of November 26 or December 3: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders & Trade Ideas

Week of December 3 or 10: Baseball Bits #11: Big Free Agent Contracts

Starting Pitchers

Top Tier

Note: These were made BEFORE the James Paxton trade

The Jays have a lot of infield prospects on the rise.  But their starting rotation needs some help if they want to contend.  They will surely go after the market’s top starters.  They are open to bringing back J.A. Happ, but I think Dallas Keuchel and Ervin Santana fit their mold better.  Keuchel will serve as Toronto’s ace, where they will need an upgrade with Marco Estrada leaving.  Santana isn’t what he used to be, but will still boost their rotation, especially if he rebounds fully from his injury in 2018.  Meanwhile, Happ will head to the Angels to provide stability in an injury prone rotation that will be without Shohei Ohtani.  The Yankees will pursue a younger starter like Patrick Corbin to upgrade the rotation in the long term, and an older starter to supplement the rotation until younger Yankees pitchers are ready to take over.

Jerry Dipoto had intended to rebuild this off-season.  But they have too much talent on the rise to just start over now.  It would be a Marlins-like move to rebuild now.  I think it would be smarter for them to add a mid to high tier starter such as Gio Gonzalez or Nathan Eovaldi and an outfielder or two to supplement the young talent.  Charlie Morton will leave Houston for and sign with the Nationals, who could use a #3 starter to replace Gio Gonzalez and add depth to the rotation.

High to Mid-Tier Starters

Shields will return to the White Sox.  They will seek to be led by young talent, but need Shields back for depth.  The Padres will also bring back their veteran starter, Tyson Ross for similar reasons.  I could also see them adding Garrett Richards among other veterans as future investments to guide their return to contention.  Richards will miss 2019, but hopefully, he’ll come back as a better pitcher in 2020.  I think Jason Hammel is a good veteran fit for the Yankees.

If the Rays want to make the playoffs, their “committee day” in their rotation isn’t going to fly.  They’ll need to add rotation depth, and Estrada seems like a good fit for them.  He has experience in the AL East, and a mid-tier starter or two is just what Tampa needs.  The Orioles could also use another starter.  They aren’t signing anyone too expensive as they start a rebuild, but Yovani Gallardo has been on the team before and could be a good bargain signing for them.

Mid to Low Tier Starters

Eovaldi really boosted his free agent profile in the playoffs.  But I think the Red Sox will be willing to offer him a long term contract after his playoff performance.  The Rays will add Derek Holland as another option for the rotation.  Holland, Tyler Glasnow, and Brent Honeywell will likely fight for the final two spots in the rotation.  I think Ryan Yarbrough fits best as a long reliever.  Similar to the O’s, the Royals and Tigers will look for affordable rotation depth.  I think Lynn and Santiago are good fits.  I could see Chris Tillman joining the Braves, who may seek a veteran starter to fill in until their pitching prospects are ready.  I think the Giants should sign a lower tier starter, such as Jaime Garcia to give them options if young starters Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Ty Blach struggle.

Relief Pitchers

Top Tier Closers and Late-Inning Relievers

There has been a lot of hype surrounding Kimbrel after he turned down the qualifying offer, but I think he will return to the Red Sox.  He just wanted a longer term deal.  The teams that were in the running for Kimbrel such as the Angels and Phillies will settle for other top closers such as Mark Melancon and Zach Britton.  I think Jeurys Familia, another top closer will go to the White Sox as they try to take steps toward contention.  I could see the Mariners keeping active in the free agent market by adding another bullpen arm in Miller.  The Reds could also use a bullpen arm to replace Drew Storen, and Brach seems to be a good fit.  He can close or set up, and he and Raisel Iglesias could make a strong veteran-younger player late-inning combo.

Mid-Tier Closers

Pittsburgh’s #1 hole right now is their bullpen.  They’ll look to add multiple quality relievers.  As they rebuild, they are not in the running for the market’s top closers.  But Herrera is a reasonable closing option for them.  Some other rebuilding teams who need closers, such as the O’s, Royals, and Rangers, will have to settle for lower-tier closers such as Tyler Clippard and Cody Allen.  Meanwhile, I see veteran closer Greg Holland headed to Tampa, hoping to rebound from a rough 2018.  Holland is an affordable option for a Rays team that wants to make the jump from mediocre to playoff contender.  Storen, another seasoned veteran, could make for a good duo with fellow late-inning reliever Addison Reed for Minnesota.

Low Tier Closer-Mid Tier Set-Up

Herrera isn’t quite enough to fill Pittsburgh’s late inning hole.  Romo could be a good fit.  The Brewers could also use another late inning arm.  They don’t need a top tier guy, but someone like A.J. Ramos or Santiago Casilla could definitely help.  I think Casilla will return to the A’s though, and Zach McAllister, another mid-tier reliever, will return to Detroit, where he spent just about a week in his final MLB stint of 2018.  The Rockies could resign Adam Ottavino, but I think they will go for a slight upgrade, Justin Wilson, with the Indians adding Ottavino to supplement Brad Hand and replace Andrew Miller.

Low Tier Late Inning Relievers

The Braves have been a rumored suitor to bring back Craig Kimbrel, but they should trust Arodys Vizcaino as their closer and add a lower tier late inning reliever to support him (I see them adding Maurer).  The White Sox will sign Tony Sipp as a slight upgrade over Jeanmar Gomez, who I have going to Detroit.  Gomez and McAllister will set up closer Shane Greene.  The Royals will also look for an affordable bullpen arm.  They should be set in the late-inning department with the duo of Clippard and Boone Logan.  The Mets will be active in this free agent market, and they need late-inning help.  Aaron Loup is a good addition, but I don’t have them adding a closer. Jenrry Mejia is eligible to return in 2019, and the Mets should be hopeful he can close.  Duke will play a similar role in Toronto, setting up closer Ken Giles.

High Tier 7th Inning Relief

If the Red Sox bring back Kimbrel, they should be fine to let Carson Smith and maybe even Joe Kelly test the market.  I think Smith will find a destination despite his injury, as the Twins sign him to supplement the late-inning duo of Storen and Reed.  The Angels, who will still look for more bullpen help beyond Britton, will sign Kelly.  If he’s having a good year, Kelly can become the full-time set up man in LA over Cam Bedrosian.  Norris, a former starter, can provide the Rays with a trustworthy 7th inning arm.  Jake Diekman should play a similar role in San Francisco.  The O’s and Reds could also use bullpen help, but cannot afford the top guys in the market.  They will settle for Axford and Warren, respectively.

That’s all for Part 1 of my MLB FA Predictions.  Stay tuned for Part 2, where I will evaluate the catcher market and the infield market.  This comes in good timing, as Kurt Suzuki just signed in Washington, and J.T. Realmuto trade rumors are reaching their peak.

Note: I think the Marlins will end up trading Realmuto to Atlanta with Kurt Suzuki off the table.  The Marlins should sign another catcher to supplement Chad Wallach.