Welcome to my Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks. Last week was not great for me. I went 4-9, putting my overall record at 85-74-2. I am no longer ahead of any experts, but I am tied with CBS Sports expert Jason La Canfora. Thanksgiving is one of my favorite holidays. I love the food, I love seeing my family, I enjoy watching the parade, and I especially love the football. Who will win in today’s football games? Expect a big week for home teams, but I think one home team will have their Thanksgiving spoiled. Keep reading to find out which team that is, and feel free to comment with your thoughts.
12:30 PM EST
Look for a dominant day by Khalil Mack and the Bears defense against Detroit. Without WRs Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, the Lions offense will struggle to get into a rhythm. Chicago’s offense won’t be at its best either, but the defensive excellence makes up for it. This will allow the Bears to spoil Detroit’s Thanksgiving.
4:30 PM EST
The injury-riddled Washington offense will miss QB Alex Smith and WR Jamison Crowder. But they will manage to keep this close against the young Dallas D. Meanwhile, QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense will continue to improve with the addition of WR Amari Cooper, leading the Cowboys to win their Turkey Day game in a close one.
8:20 PM EST
Expect the Saints defense to perform better than usual, holding Atlanta to 1 TD in New Orleans. New Orleans won’t be at their best offensively either, but expect them to get by against the weak Falcons D. The Falcons will begin to panic as they struggle in all aspects in this game.
That’s all for my Thanksgiving Day Picks. Stay tuned for the rest of my picks later this week.
If you’re a Boston sports fan, you may have noticed an unusual amount of Boston teams playing lately. Right now, Boston is the only city with an MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL team that are all in season. From October 16 to October 31, there could be 16 consecutive days of Boston sports (depending on how the Red Sox do in the World Series). From October 3 to October 31, there could be as many as 39 Boston sports events. If the Red Sox hadn’t defeated the Astros in 5, all four teams would have played in one weekend. So far, it’s gone very well, as Boston sports teams have a 16-6-2 win-loss record this October. I’m calling it October Sports Mania, and today, I will give an update on all 4 teams with my thoughts during this time of madness.
MLB: Boston Red Sox
Regular Season Record: 108-54
Record in October: 7-2
Current Status: Won American League, Made World Series
Context: For the first time in 5 years, the Red Sox have made the World Series! They have made it three other times in the 21st century, and they haven’t lost in a 21st century World Series appearance. This time, they take on the Dodgers in what could be one of the best World Series’ of the 21st century. Game 1 went down October 23, as Chris Sale faced Clayton Kershaw and the Red Sox won in a surprising slugfest. Who will win this exciting series? I’m calling Red Sox in 6 or 7 games. But considering that I have to get to school at 7:20 AM every day and the games start at 8:00 or 8:15 PM (some on school nights), I may not see every minute live like I would want to.
Note to commissioner: Please make World Series games start earlier. A 6PM start, like the Super Bowl, would be nice.
- 10/5/2018 vs. NYY: W, 5-4 (ALDS Game 1, BOS leads 1-0)
- 10/6/2018 vs. NYY: L, 6-2 (ALDS Game 2, series tied 1-1)
- 10/8/2018 @ NYY: W, 16-1 (ALDS Game 3, BOS leads 2-1)
- 10/9/2018 @ NYY: W, 4-3 (ALDS Game 4, BOS wins 3-1)
- 10/13/2018 vs. HOU, L, 7-2 (ALCS Game 1, HOU leads 1-0)
- 10/14/2018 vs. HOU, W, 7-5 (ALCS Game 2, series tied 1-1)
- 10/16/2018 @ HOU, W, 8-2 (ALCS Game 3, BOS leads 2-1)
- 10/17/2018 @ HOU, W, 8-6 (ALCS Game 4, BOS leads 3-1)
- 10/18/2018 @ HOU, W, 4-1 (ALCS Game 5, BOS wins 4-1)
- 10/23/2018 vs. LAD, W, 8-4 (World Series Game 1, BOS leads 1-0)
- 10/24/2018 vs. LAD (World Series Game 2)
- 10/26/2018 @ LAD (World Series Game 3)
- 10/30/2018 vs. LAD (World Series Game 6, if necessary)
- 10/31/2018 vs. LAD (World Series Game 7, if necessary)
My Thoughts on Them So Far This Month
The Red Sox dominated all season after the addition of star hitter J.D. Martinez and manager Alex Cora. But in both 2016 and 2017, they choked in the playoffs. I had confidence in them against the Yankees in the ALDS, but that confidence was weaker due to these chokes and the fact that the Yankees were also a Top 3 MLB team this year. The Sox also had regressed throughout the month of September. But when they faced the Yankees in the ALDS, they returned to form. The bullpen was clutch and the lineup had awoken. They rode the momentum into the ALCS. It wasn’t looking good after Game 1, but they easily defeated the stacked, defending champion Houston Astros in the final four games. They have now advanced into an exciting World Series against the Dodgers. This series could go either way. Do you think the Sox take it all?
Predictions for the Rest of the Month
This World Series will not be smooth sailing. I didn’t even expect the ALCS to end in 5 games. But I have confidence that the Red Sox will win. As long as Chris Sale is good to go and the lineup keeps making fireworks, we should take this series in 6 or 7 games.
NFL: New England Patriots
Regular Season Record: 5-2
Record in October: 3-0
Current Status: Riding Four Game Win Streak into MNF Division Duel
Context: The Pats are riding a 4 game win streak, and they’ve scored at least 30 points in every game since WR Josh Gordon was activated. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who arguably have the best offense in the league, 43-40. Will they ride the momentum to a Super Bowl victory? This dominant offensive performance will serve them well, but they nearly lost to the Chicago Bears because of bad defense. Their defense is going to need to step up their game for a win on the big stage.
- 10/4/2018 vs. IND: W, 38-24
- 10/14/2018 vs. KC: W, 43-40
- 10/21/2018 @ CHI: W, 38-31
- 10/29/2018 @ BUF
My Thoughts on Them so far This Month
I was very impressed by the win against Kansas City. The Chiefs may have one of the worst defenses in the league. But the fact that the Pats also scored 30+ against the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins shows that this offense is here to play. They took down the 5-0 Chiefs, who had averaged 35 points per game and were riding the momentum to dominance.
Predictions for the Rest of the Month
The Patriots should be able to take down the 1-6 Bills easily with QB Josh Allen and RB LeSean McCoy banged-up. But their next major test will come in Week 9 when they host QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. They will need their best defense in that game.
NBA: Boston Celtics
Regular Season Record: 2-2
October Record: 2-2
Current Status: Off to Slow Start, Hoping to Rebound for Big Year
Context: The Celtics are off to a slow start. They did take down the 76ers and Knicks, but they fell to the Kawhi Leonard-led Raptors in Toronto and suffered an embarrassing loss when hosting the Orlando Magic on Monday. Will they pick up the pace and contend for a championship?
- 10/16/2018 vs. PHI, W, 105-87
- 10/19/2018 @ TOR, L, 113-101
- 10/20/2018 @ NYK, W, 103-101
- 10/22/2018 vs. ORL, L, 93-90
- 10/25/2018 @ OKC
- 10/27/2018 @ DET
- 10/30/2018 vs. DET
My Thoughts on Them so far This Month
I’m not so worried about the Celtics despite a rough start. They topped the 76ers (told you they would regress) by almost 20 and got past the Knicks in New York. Their loss to Toronto is understandable. The Raptors have only improved after the Kawhi Leonard trade and I did not expect the Celts to come to Toronto and win easily. As for the loss to Orlando, it was a little disappointing. But the Magic have a strong young core that could surprise a lot of people this year. I would not be concerned if they struggle in Oklahoma City and Detroit, both of whom I see contending. (Note: I’m pretty sure I was right about the Pistons in my NBA Predictions, Blake Griffin put up 50 against the Sixers).
Predictions for the Rest of the Month
Expect them to split in two games against an improved Detroit Pistons squad. I think their next game against Oklahoma City could go either way. But even if they start 3-4, I think they’ll pull it together and contend for a title in the long run.
NHL: Boston Bruins
Regular Season Record: 5-2-2 (12 PTS)
October Record: 5-2-2 (12 PTS)
Current Status: So-So in Canada, Come Home Thursday
Context: After a shaky four game road trip across Canada, the Bruins come home to face the Flyers and Canadiens. Montreal has been off to a strong start, and Philly has been alright as well, so wins won’t come easy over these next couple games either.
- 10/3/2018 @ WSH, L, 7-0
- 10/4/2018 @ BUF, W, 4-0
- 10/8/2018 vs. OTT, W, 6-3
- 10/11/2018 vs. EDM, W, 4-1
- 10/13/2018 vs. DET, W, 8-2
- 10/17/2018 @ CGY, L, 5-2
- 10/18/2018 @ EDM, OTL, 3-2
- 10/20/2018 @ VAN, OTL, 2-1
- 10/23/2018 @ OTT, W, 4-1
- 10/25/2018 vs. PHI
- 10/27/2018 vs. MTL
- 10/30/2018 @ CAR
My Thoughts on them so far This Month
The Bruins might not be top Stanley Cup contenders, but it seems that this young, talented team has picked up where they left off last year. They are still a playoff team for sure and have appeared to be one of the better teams in the league. I’m a little concerned about their losses to the Oilers and Canucks, but it’s early in the season, and they’ve been doing fine otherwise.
Predictions for the Rest of the Month
Look for more of the same heading into the end of the month. I could see them taking down Philly and Montreal in close home games, and I would expect them to give the Hurricanes a wake-up call after their surprisingly strong start. I had anticipated that the Hurricanes would start like this given their schedule, but trust me, it will not last that much longer.
That’s all for today. I hope you enjoy the rest of this crazy month in sports, and stay tuned for more articles on all four teams soon.
Welcome to my NFL Week 7 picks and previews. Last week, I went 8-7, placing my overall record at 53-38-2 (53-39-2 including TNF Week 7). This puts me ahead of 3 of 10 ESPN experts and 1 of 8 CBS Sports experts. There have been a lot of early season surprises this year. The Bears are tied for the NFC North lead. The Eagles sit at .500, and the Falcons sit at just 2-4. Both of them were playoff teams in 2017. Could this mark the turning point for some of those surprise bad teams? Will some of the pleasant surprise teams begin to regress? Read below to find out what I think.
Lock of the Week
The Buccaneers struggled last week in Atlanta. But now that they are back on their home turf, expect QB Jameis Winston and the Bucs to bounce back. The Browns have little to no momentum going into this one either. They’re coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Cleveland. Don’t expect a much better offensive performance from the Browns against an underrated Bucs defense in Tampa. I also don’t think the Browns secondary will be able to contain Tampa’s deep group of receivers. Expect an easy Buccaneers victory.
Upset of the Week
I tend to lean towards teams with the home field advantage when making my picks. But the Bills have actually performed relatively well on the road. If they can shock the Vikings in Minnesota, they should be able to take down the 1-5 Colts in Indy. It doesn’t matter if Josh Allen is the QB or if Derek Anderson is. This Colts defense has struggled all season, costing Indy several games. With the Bills dominating a rebuilding Colts D, QB Andrew Luck and the Colts offense should be able to put up a fight. But it will be very difficult to keep up with Buffalo, leading to a Bills road victory.
The Other Games
|TNF (Posted to Twitter Thursday Night; Actual Score: 45-10 Broncos)
||Look for QB Josh Rosen to lead Arizona to a home victory against the sinking Denver Broncos. The Broncos defense may be good, but they are not even close to 2015 form, and that will cost them. QB Case Keenum and his receivers will make it close, but it won’t be enough thanks to the dominance of the Cardinals offense.|
|Sunday, 9:30 AM EST (Posted to Twitter Before Kickoff)
|Look for QB Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense to put up another strong offensive performance in London. The Chargers have only lost twice this year, and the losses were to the Rams and Chiefs, two of the best teams in the league. They have dominated offensively against every other opponent. I also see Tennessee struggling against a young Chargers defense. This will lead to a secure Chargers victory.
Note: I think it’s a possibility that the Chargers eventually move to London if LA doesn’t work out for them.
|Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
Stay tuned for a potential video preview closer to game time!
|Expect QB Tom Brady to throw to many different receivers and lead the Pats to victory. New England should use their newfound receiver depth to their advantage. Even the Bears strong defense should struggle to contain an offense that outscored the then undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. Look for New England’s secondary to at least partially contain QB Mitch Trubisky’s receivers and for the Pats front seven to shut down Chicago’s RB duo to secure victory.|
|Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
||Look for the Lions to struggle in Miami against a young, versatile Dolphins D. Expect QB Matthew Stafford to connect with his WR trio for TDs to make this close. But I also think the Dolphins will have a strong offensive game on home turf, especially against a mediocre Lions D. Miami will pull ahead to win by 13.|
|Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
||Expect the Vikings to be led by a strong defensive performance that holds the Jets under 15 points. I see Minnesota’s offense making an impact later to secure the Vikings a lead. The Vikes should win easily in the end thanks to defensive dominance and a late-game offensive statement.|
|Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
||This will be a defense first game as two of the best defenses in the league face off. But Jacksonville should at least look better offensively than they did last week, despite facing a tough Texans defense. I also expect the Jags defense to bounce back. They’ve just faced two offense-heavy teams. Now they go up against another defense-first team, the Texans. I expect Houston to struggle regressively against the young Jags defense.|
|Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
||The Eagles may have gotten off to a mediocre 3-3 start, but QB Carson Wentz has met expectations, and that will show this week as he throws 4 touchdowns in a dominant performance against a young Carolina secondary. The Panthers’ defensive backs have looked better this year, but they are facing one of the best passing offenses in the league. Meanwhile, expect Philly’s D to perform surprisingly well, holding Carolina under 25 as the Panthers are unable to bounce back from a tough Week 6 loss.|
|Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
||Until 2017, the Saints were known as the team that sucked because they had no defense. But last year, the young Saints D broke out for a huge year. Expect to see flashes of the 2017 Saints D against a mediocre Ravens pass game. Baltimore has been led by their defense so far this year as well. New Orleans will be impacted by this, but their experienced offense should allow the Saints to get by in Baltimore.|
|Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
||QB Dak Prescott had a huge game last week out of nowhere. Don’t expect to see it again in Washington. The Cowboys have been dominant on home turf, but have not won a game on the road. Look for the Redskins defense to step it up here while QB Alex Smith just barely leads Washington past Dallas.|
|Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
||The Rams offense should struggle without WR Cooper Kupp. But San Francisco won’t do much better without QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Look for them to put up a dud against LA’s shut down defense. The Rams should get by despite their offensive struggles.|
|Sunday, 8:20 PM EST
||Now that they’ve lost their momentum, don’t expect QB Patrick Mahomes II and his receivers to look as sharp as usual, but they still should put up 20+ points. QB Andy Dalton and the Bengals should make this close, but look for the young Chiefs defense to step it up despite battling numerous injuries. Kansas City hasn’t really needed much defense, not until these last couple of weeks. But defense wins games, and with the Chiefs D stepping it up, Kansas City should win a close primetime game.|
|Monday, 8:15 PM EST
||Atlanta will struggle early here as the defense falters against a strong Giants offense. QB Eli Manning may be having a rough year, but he should be alright against Atlanta’s inconsistent defense. Look for the Falcons to put up a fight on offense late, but fall just short in primetime.|
That’s all for this week’s picks and previews. Stay tuned for more Boston sports articles soon, including a preview of the crazy week ahead for all four Boston teams.
The MLB Playoff Bracket is set after yesterday’s tiebreaker games, and the MLB playoffs begin tonight at 8:00 PM. Above is my complete bracket for the MLB Playoff Challenge. Below is a brief look at each match-up. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.
AL Wild Card Game
(4) New York Yankees over Oakland Athletics (5)
Oakland’s pitching staff has been better this year, but I do not see their rotation as an elite playoff rotation. The Yankees lineup will tear this pitching staff apart, led by the home run hitting duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
(1) Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees (4) , 3-2
The Yankees have given Boston a hard time, so I think this series will be close. The Yankees have been able to dominate against certain Red Sox starters such as David Price. But the Red Sox have the home-field advantage, and they have two MVP-caliber players in their lineup, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. The Sox lineup has the depth and talent to outdo the Yankees pitching staff.
(2) Houston Astros over Cleveland Indians (3) , 3-0
The Astros have most of what they had in last year’s World Series: a stacked lineup filled with youth, power, and speed and a dominant playoff rotation. They come in to this series with a weaker bullpen though. Both of these lineups are playoff-caliber, but I see this series as a battle of two of the league’s top rotations, the Astros led by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, and the Indians led by Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco. These games will be low scoring, but I see the Astros sweeping as their lineup is able to manage the tough opposing pitching more easily.
(1) Boston Red Sox over Houston Astros (2) , 4-3
The Astros have one of the best rotations in the league plus an amazing lineup. But the Red Sox have one thing Houston doesn’t. A strong closer in Craig Kimbrel. If their rotation can hold up for a good portion of the series and their offense gets going like it has for a lot of the season, I think they can do something they haven’t done much of this year: beating the other elite teams. The Red Sox have taken advantage of their easy match-ups, but it’s time for them to step it up when it matters.
NL Wild Card Game
(4) Chicago Cubs over Colorado Rockies (5)
The Rockies lineup is very talented, but despite improvement in 2018 that got them here, I don’t see their pitching holding up on the road against a well-rounded Cubs team. Chicago will take advantage of the Rockies’ weak pitching staff, get out to an early lead, and their pitching staff will be able to help the Cubs hold it easily.
(4) Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (1) , 3-1
The Brewers rode their momentum to a division title. They have a young, talented lineup that’s mostly a product of the 2017-18 off-season and a huge MLB Trade Deadline. But I think this Brewers lineup is containable, and if there’s any pitching staff in the National League that can contain them, it’s the Cubs. The Cubs should also thrive offensively against a young Brewers rotation that’s still developing.
(2) Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (3) , 3-1
Led by young talent, the Braves pulled out an NL East victory. However, I think they rode easy division competition to this victory. Their rotation is okay, but I don’t see their lineup as playoff caliber. The Nationals would likely be here if they weren’t so hampered by injuries this season. They may have won it all. But the Dodgers can contain a young, developing team like the Braves. Led by Trade Deadline acquisition Manny Machado, Their lineup has the power and talent to give this Atlanta rotation trouble, and their deep pitching staff will benefit them significantly. I see this series as an easy win for the Dodgers.
(4) Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Dodgers (2) , 4-3
This will be a very interesting series. The 2016 World Series champion against the 2017 World Series runner-up. The Dodgers still have a World Series-caliber roster. Their rotation is more than capable, and they come in with a stronger offensive attack this year. But the Cubs have a deep, young lineup, and although they might struggle against this solid Dodgers rotation, I could see them taking advantage of a weak Dodger bullpen. The Dodgers will put up a serious fight, but I think the Cubs pitching staff can contain them for a good portion of the series.
(1) Boston Red Sox over Chicago Cubs (4) , 4-3
I think this is the year for the Red Sox. Two of Boston’s last three World Series titles were partially due to momentum. The Cubs have a World Series caliber roster. They haven’t seen the Red Sox yet, and they may very well be a better team. The NL was a very competitive league, while the AL was a league of extremes. Chicago’s record may very well be an NL equivalent of the Red Sox’s record.
But I think the Red Sox will ride the momentum they gather in the ALDS and ALCS to win the World Series. Their pitching will need to finally hold it together, but I think they are capable, as long as they can rely on the momentum this talented lineup gathers. It won’t be easy against a strong, well-rounded Cubs team, but I don’t think Red Sox Nation should give up hope.
That’s all for my MLB Playoff Predictions. Stay tuned for more baseball articles.
As I publish this post, the Sox need only one win to reach 100 for the first time since 1946. Last year, 3 of the 6 division winners were 100-win teams. But what does this mean for the Red Sox hopes for the post season success?
The American League is a league of extremes. 3 teams in the AL are on pace to win 100 games this year and 1 more is on pace to be very close. But there are a lot of teams in the American League who are on pace for close to 100 losses. The Orioles have already lost 103 games and most teams have 15-20 games left! The 3 worst teams by record are in the American League, and 6 AL teams have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The National League has only 3 teams that have been eliminated so far.
The American League playoff picture is practically locked up, while no National League team has even come close to clinching a playoff berth. It’s likely going to come down to the final week in the NL and tiebreakers may be a factor.
Even though the top AL teams will likely finish with a better record, does this mean they are better teams? I don’t think so. Due to the tough competition, talented National League teams have been challenged to reach win totals of some of the top AL teams. For example, the Washington Nationals aren’t even a .500 team. That being said, I think a National League team could win the World Series this year, giving a wake-up call to the AL because regular season wins won’t mean anything once the playoffs start.
I’ve done some research on every 100-win team in the 162-game era. I wrote down the team, the year they did it, their final record, and how they did in the playoffs. Based on 100-win teams of the past, what are the odds the Red Sox or one of the other 100-win teams to win the World Series? Will these teams choke early in the playoffs? (Note: Considering that there could be 3-4 from the American League, it is unlikely that all of them do). Check out my research below and keep reading to find out what the research says and how I interpreted it.
The “Baseball Bits”
- There have been 57 100-win teams in the 162-game era
- Only 15 of the 57 (26.3 %) went on to win the World Series, even though 30 of the 57 (52.6%) made it to the World Series.
- Since the LDS began, there have only been 26 100-win teams. 12 of them (46.15%) lost in the LDS
- 13 of the 57 100-win teams (22.8%) lost in the LCS
- 2 of the 57 (3.5%) 100-win teams missed the playoffs entirely. These two teams both played in the era before any playoffs beyond the World Series
- The Red Sox reached 100 wins three times before the 162-game era: they won the World Series in two of those years
- However, the Red Sox have yet to have a 100-win season in the 162-game era
- The Yankees have had 8 100-win seasons in the 162-game era, winning the World Series in 3 of them
- The best team in 162-game MLB history (the 2001 Mariners) went 116-46 and went on to lose in the ALCS
- The 2018 Red Sox are on pace to win 111 games, which would make them the third best team in the 162-game era by record behind the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees (who lost in the ALDS)
- Each of the last two World Series winners were 100-win teams
- There have been 15 seasons in the 162-game era with multiple 100-win teams
- 5 of these seasons had three 100-win teams – in only 2 of those years did one of the 3 100-win teams win the World Series
- The Red Sox, Yankees (on pace for 101), and Astros (on pace for 102) are all on pace for 100 wins this year, and Athletics (98) are close
- The best team in the 162-game era to win a World Series went 114-48 (The 1998 Yankees)
- The best team in the 162-game era to miss out on the LCS went 103-59 (The 2002 Athletics)
The fact that an 100-win team won the World Series in each of the last 2 years is very promising. There were three 100-win teams last year and three on pace to do it this year, so I think one of them will pull off a World Series victory. But will it be the Red Sox? The Astros just outplayed the Red Sox in their most recent series and won the series 2-1, and the Yankees always give Boston a hard time in the playoffs. You also have to consider how easy the competition is in the American League compared to the National League. Who knows, there might have been no 100-win teams this year if the MLB’s leagues were more balanced.
However, I don’t think the Red Sox will choke in the ALDS, even though 12 of the 26 100-game winners in the ALDS era did. They are on pace for 110 wins. The winning-est team that missed the LCS was the 2002 Oakland Athletics, who were 103-59. But I do think there’s a good chance the Yankees come close to topping the Red Sox in the ALDS, and there’s an even better chance the Astros beat them in the ALCS to advance to the World Series. In the end, I think the World Series goes to one of these teams: the Astros, the Red Sox, the Cubs (best NL team), the Dodgers (always a contender), or the Rockies (a young team with a stacked lineup and drastically improving pitching).
I’ll be going to the game tonight against Toronto. Will David Price lead us to our 100th victory? We’ll all find out tonight.
UPDATE: I just witnessed Red Sox history! The Red Sox have reached 100 wins. Hopefully they become the 16th 100-win team in the 162-game era to win the World Series.
Welcome to the 5th and final part of my MLB pre-season power rankings. Although the season has started, I am still finishing this series. I will also have my first Red Sox Report article of 2018 coming soon, as well as coverage on NFL free agency and the upcoming Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins games.
Last time, I covered the teams that are true contenders but are not quite on the level of the MLB’s best. That consisted of 5 wild card competitors and the Indians, the lowest ranked of what is known as the MLB Super Seven. They just missed the Top 6, at #7. I looked at how they did this off-season, how they’ll do this season, and what’s holding them back. I also discussed best and worst case scenarios for each team and projected their records and division placements. Today I will do the same for the for the Top 6 teams in the league. What are their chances of winning it all, and what are their Achilles Heels? Read below to find out how the best of the best line up. Every team on this part of the list is part of the Super Seven I have been mentioning.
Boston Sports Mania MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings
*My pre-season Baseball Bits are also up.
6. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were pretty quiet for much of the off-season despite the rumors that they were the front-runners to sign OF J.D. Martinez, and that it was near inevitable that the Red Sox signed him. They did bring back 1B Mitch Moreland and 2B Eduardo Nunez. With that, they had a pretty good roster. But they had no home run hitter, which was crucial after the Yankees added Giancarlo Stanton and formed what has the potential to be a historic HR duo between Stanton and Aaron Judge. Eventually, they did sign Martinez despite a lack of a position for him to play. If there was an open position called “designated home run hitter (DHH)”, it might be fitting, but now he has to split his time between left field and DH, with Moreland, Hanley Ramirez, and Jackie Bradley Jr. losing at-bats to him.
The Case for the Red Sox
If the Red Sox are meeting their expectations, they will make the playoffs, and they will make it to at least the ALDS. Red Sox reporter Tony Massarotti thinks we are a good team but can do a lot better, and I agree. Sure, the Yankees had a great off-season and are now favorites to beat us out in the AL East. But the Sox are capable of winning the division, and if they cannot win the division, they are definitely capable of making the playoffs. Hopefully, Chris Sale and David Price will be able to lead the rotation together after Sale’s strong 2017 and Price’s strong Spring Training, and I’m hoping J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts can lead the lineup (with the help of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, who are off to a great start).
But if they cannot, we need someone else to step up their game. In fact, no matter what, we need someone else to step it up. Whether Bogey keeps going and breaks out, or Devers builds on his late 2017 success, or Andrew Benintendi has the season he was supposed to have one year ago, I will be satisfied. They just need one more player to build on the consistency they have had and turn it into dominance.
The Achilles Heel
Like I said, the Red Sox have an ace, and they have a pretty strong lineup. But they just need some of their good players to achieve greatness. It would be nice if they could have the beastly rotation people were expecting of them, and so far, it’s looked pretty good. It would also be nice if the Red Sox had a couple more players who broke through and joined Betts and Martinez as the All-Stars of the lineup. World Series contenders aren’t led by a couple superstars and a bunch of other good, but not great players. They are led by a group of star players that work well and fit well together.
Best Case Scenario: The rotation dominates, several players in the lineup breakout and the Red Sox go on to win the World Series, which you will notice is the Best Case Scenario for all 6 of the top teams.
Worst Case Scenario: The rotation continues to be inconsistent, the lineup is no more than good, and the Red Sox lose out to other teams like the Twins and Angels in the Wild Card race.
Projected Finish: 92-70, 2nd in AL East
5. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs lost star pitcher Jake Arrieta, but they made up for it by signing SP Yu Darvish and SP Tyler Chatwood. They also added Brandon Morrow to a strong bullpen. The Cubs appear to be pretty confident in their lineup, but does their lineup need an upgrade if the Cubs want to win another World Series ring?
The Case for the Cubs
About a year ago, the Cubs were viewed as the best team in the MLB. But the competition has caught up with them, and the Cubs experienced a World Series hangover early in 2017. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Astros have all caught up, and the Indians, Nationals, and Red Sox are close. They have a nice young roster with a dominant rotation, and their lineup is great but could use a bit of a boost in the power department.
The Achilles Heel
The Cubs have a lot of good, consistent, hitters. But they were hoping that they could get some power out of guys like Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo that they have signed/kept around. Bryant and Rizzo have done well at the plate, but are good hitters for average, not good hitters for power. Heyward was signed to add some power to the lineup, and it would have been nice to see some power out of Ben Zobrist. Who will emerge as a home run hitter for the Cubs? If they cannot find one, then that means the league’s elite teams are one step ahead of them.
Best Case Scenario: The Cubs go on to win a World Series after Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward have dominant years at the plate and get help from Chicago’s younger players. The rotation also continues to dominate.
Worst Case Scenario: The rotation underperforms, the lineup cannot find their power hitter, and the Cubs just barely snag a Wild Card after losing their division to the Cardinals or Brewers.
Projected Finish: 92-70, 1st in NL Central\
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers kept their roster at World Series level. They did lose some of their starting pitchers, but they had at least eight viable starters on their World Series roster. They added Tom Koehler to the bullpen, and he could even start in the case of an injury to another starter. They also brought back Chase Utley and acquired Matt Kemp from the Braves in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez and a couple extra starters they had. Gonzalez was no longer needed with Cody Bellinger ready to start at first base full time.
The Case for the Dodgers
The Dodgers could still be a World Series contender, but other teams may beat them out. The Astros are looking even better this year, the Nats have extra motivation to do well with many star players in contract years, and the Yankees have more power in their lineup than any other team in the league. Their lineup and rotation still look great. Clayton Kershaw has continued to dominate the league, and the lineup has done well despite the lack of a true leader.
The Achilles Heel
The Dodgers do not have any major holes. But they need two smaller things. The first thing is some bullpen help. They need to find a reliable set up man for Kenley Jansen, and even Jansen has struggled so far. They also need a leader for the lineup. They have a lot of great hitters, but who is their true star? Kershaw is the rotation leader. Who will be the Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers lineup?
Best Case Scenario: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner will lead the Dodgers lineup to dominance, the rotation continues to thrive, and Kenley Jansen gets back on track as the Dodgers win the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: Kershaw, along with the rest of the rotation regresses, the lack of depth hurts them, and the lineup cannot quite dominate without a leader. Jansen and the bullpen continue to struggle too, and the Dodgers are left to compete for a Wild Card.
Projected Finish: 95-67, 1st in NL West
3. New York Yankees
The Yankees already had a strong lineup, and they made a splash this off-season by adding to that. They acquired Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, and with that, they had the top two home run hitters in the league in Stanton and Aaron Judge. They also added 2B Neil Walker late in the off-season to help out while Gleyber Torres recovers from his injury and continues to develop. They acquired Brandon Drury to help out Miguel Andujar at third too.
The Case for the Yankees
The Yanks have a lineup that is stacked with home run hitters, but they are lacking depth, especially in the infield. Judge and Stanton will balance things out though, making the lineup look dominant. The rotation also looks good but is the one portion of their roster that does not quite match up with the Red Sox, who can rely on the combo of Chris Sale and David Price. The good thing is, the rotation will be backed up by a strong bullpen, much stronger than the Red Sox bullpen.
The Achilles Heel
The Yankees do have a bit of an infield depth problem, but their real depth problem is in the rotation. Jordan Montgomery has been forced into the #5 starter role, while the Sox will have E-Rod and Steven Wright once everyone is healthy. The Yankees have a nice group of starters, but they lack depth, and they lack a true ace. Sonny Gray, Masahiro Tanaka, and Luis Severino are great but are not quite ace material. The Red Sox have Chris Sale to lead their rotation, so they are ahead of the Yankees in that department.
Best Case Scenario: The rotation dominates the league with multiple #1 level starters, the bullpen backs them up, and the lineup hits the most home runs in the MLB by a long shot as the Yanks win the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: Depth problems come back to bite the Yankees, the Yanks must depend on their bullpen after rotation struggles, and the lineup cannot find much talent around Gary Sanchez, Stanton and Judge. The Yankees are left with a Wild Card spot and do not make the ALDS.
Projected Finish: 96-66, 1st in AL East
2. Houston Astros
After winning the World Series (as I predicted) in 2017, the Astros only got better. They acquired Gerrit Cole from the Pirates, and now they will have Justin Verlander for a full season. They arguably have seven viable starters, and their first three starters were all #1 starters on different teams before this season. They also added Joe Smith to a strong bullpen.
The Case for the Astros
The Astros are coming off a World Series title, and I do not expect much of a hangover. They have a dominant rotation, and a strong lineup led by Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, and AL MVP Jose Altuve. I don’t see much of a chance for them to regress. But will they be beaten out by a motivated contender who was not won in recent years?
The Achilles Heel
The Astros do not have any major weaknesses, but with DH Carlos Beltran gone, and 1B Yulieski Gurriel suspended, they will have some depth problems in the lineup. They will have to rely on Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Marisnick, Derek Fisher, and J.D. Davis more this season. Other than that, they do not have any other problems, at least major problems. That will likely resolve itself as the season progresses.
Best Case Scenario: The stacked lineup dominates, the rotation is led by three aces, and the Astros dominate the league for the second consecutive year, winning the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: The rotation underperforms and struggles, depth and World Series hangover problems affect the lineup, and the Astros fail to make the ALCS after losing the division to the Angels surprisingly.
Projected Finish: 95-67, 1st in AL West
1. Washington Nationals
The Nats did not make any big moves this off-season besides resigning Howie Kendrick, and I think their roster looks good as it is, although it could have used one more starting pitcher. They should sign somebody who’s still available if A.J. Cole struggles in the rotation. But the Nats have many star players, including Bryce Harper in contract years, so the Nationals are in win now mode, and for that reason, they are my favorite to win the World Series.
The Case for the Nationals
Like I said, the Nats are in win-now mode. The window is closing for this team to win a World Series with this era of players, but I think this could be the year. With a great roster flooded with young talent and led by superstars in Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals are in good position to take advantage of the fact that they have one more year to win it all before they lose Bryce Harper and other strong players on the roster to free agency. But will they be motivated enough to lead themselves past other dominant teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, and Yankees?
The Achilles Heel
The Nationals have a nice lineup that is still doing well early on, even with Daniel Murphy starting on the DL. Later in the season, Murphy will help lead them. But the rotation has a depth problem. If A.J. Cole struggles, the Nationals have nobody to replace him with Joe Ross injured. There is no guarantee that any free agent pitcher will willingly sign here, but if Cole struggles, they will need to try, or it may hold them back from winning now like they are hoping to.
Best Case Scenario: Motivated to win it all before losing Harper, the Nats lineup dominates, carried by an MVP season by Bryce Harper where he nearly wins the Triple Crown. The rotation also dominates as A.J. Cole does well and Strasburg and Scherzer dominate all year. The Nationals win the World Series triumphantly.
Worst Case Scenario: Depth problems cause rotation struggles and injury problems add to it, Bryce Harper cannot carry the lineup alone in a contract year, and the Nats just edge out a division win and struggle in the NLDS.
Projected Finish: 97-65, 1st in NL East
That’s all for my MLB pre-season power rankings. My next power rankings update will come at the end of April as I begin my Monthly Power Ranking series. I will also have Red Sox recaps, more Baseball Bits, and my first Red Sox Report of 2018 coming soon (The Red Sox Report article will be up tomorrow and I will try to post them every Friday from here on out.)