Basketball Bits #1: What do the Celtics need to win it all?

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This year’s NBA off-season will be pivotal for many teams across the league. Going into free agency, I see no clear favorite to win the NBA Finals. Even the Warriors could fall out of contention if Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and DeMarcus Cousins all leave as free agents. A handful of big names will be on the open market, and whoever dominates in free agency should have a good chance to win it all. Even teams who struggled mightily in 2018-19 like the Knicks and Lakers have the chance to jump into title contention with the help of a strong off-season.

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The Celtics are in an interesting situation. Last season, they were expected to be serious title contenders with the return of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward from injury alongside the rise of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and others. But Kyrie Irving did not mesh well with the team, and he grew to dislike Boston. The expectation going into the season was that Kyrie Irving would return to the Celtics on a long term deal or at least 1 more year on his player option before agreeing to a long term deal. But now, Irving is expected to leave for Brooklyn, LA, or somewhere else.

With Irving expected to leave, what do the Celtics need in order to stay relevant and a potential championship contender? Do they need a star who will be a better leader than Kyrie was? Do they need multiple stars? Will they just roll with the young core of Tatum and Brown? Do they have enough cap space to do what they need to do? I researched every NBA champion in history and looked at how many star players they had, using 20 PPG as criteria for stardom. I also included the number of 25 PPG and 30 PPG scorers, as these players are less common. Check out my research as well as some Basketball Bits.

The Research

Basketball Bits #1_ Stars on Championship Teams – Sheet1

The “Basketball Bits”

  • The NBA has 73 champions all-time
    • Just 14 of 73 (19.2%) lacked a 20 PPG scorer
      • 35 of 73 (47.95%) had 1 20 PPG scorer
      • 22 of 73 (30.1%) had 2 20 PPG scorers
      • Just 2 of 73 (2.7%) had 3 20 PPG scorers:
        • The 2017-18 Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry, Thompson, Durant)
        • The 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (Curry, Thompson, Durant)
    • 47 of 73 (64.4%) lacked a 25 PPG scorer
      • 20 of 73 (27.4%) had 1 25 PPG scorer
      • 6 of 73 (8.2%) had 2 25 PPG scorers
    • 67 of 73 (91.8%) lacked a 30 PPG scorer – nobody had more than 1
  • The Boston Celtics have won 17 championships:
    • None of them had a 30 PPG scorer
    • Only 2 of 17 (11.8%) had a 25 PPG scorer
    • 5 of 17 (29.4%) lacked a 20 PPG scorer
    • 8 of 17 (47.1%) had 1 20 PPG scorer
    • 4 of 17 (23.5%) had 2 20 PPG scorers 
  • In the last 25 years:
    • Only 3 teams (12%) have won it all without a 20 PPG scorer:
      • The 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (Most recent)
      • The 2007-08 Boston Celtics
      • The 2003-04 Detroit Pistons
    • Only 10 teams (40%) have won it all without 25 PPG scorer
  • In the NBA’s first 25 years:
    • 6 teams (24%) won it all without a 20 PPG scorer
    • 21 teams (84%) won it all without a 25 PPG scorer
  • Between 1972 and 1994 (everything else):
    • 5 teams (21.7%) won it all without a 20 PPG scorer
    • 16 teams (69.6%) won it all without a 25 PPG scorer
  • There are only 3 franchises who have ever won a championship with a 30 PPG scorer:
    • The Chicago Bulls (4 times, Michael Jordan)
    • The Milwaukee Bucks (1 time, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar)
    • The Golden State Warriors (1 time, Rick Barry)

The Verdict

In this era, the Celtics will need at least one consistent 20-25 PPG scorer to win a title, and a second would be helpful. You never know, maybe Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can be our guys. But I think pairing Tatum and Brown with a star point guard or star center would be ideal. The Celtics did win with a handful of 15-20 PPG scorers in 2008. That was in the Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett/Ray Allen era. I doubt they can put something like that together again in today’s NBA with all these stars on the open market.

But if they sign one star player that can allow Tatum and Brown to thrive while that player still puts up 25 PPG, such as PG Kemba Walker, PG D’Angelo Russell, or C Nikola Vucevic, this team could have the chance to contend. They aren’t going to pull the trigger if it puts their future at risk. I don’t think that will happen. But do they have enough money? Do these stars want to sign in Boston unlike Kyrie Irving? I can’t wait to find out, and I’ll be releasing my predictions soon.

NBA 2018-19 Predictions: Year of the Celtics

Welcome to my NBA 2018-19 predictions, where I will make my conference standings predictions as well as playoff predictions.  The Celtics made it very far last year, and that was with Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving hurt.  With the full squad healthy and Jayson Tatum bound for a huge year, could this be the year when they finally make the NBA Finals and beat the Warriors?  Read below to find out what I think.

Eastern Conference

Playoff Teams

  1. Image result for celtics logo Boston Celtics (60-22)
  2. Image result for wizards logo Washington Wizards (52-30)
  3. Image result for raptors logo Toronto Raptors (51-31)
  4. Related image Detroit Pistons (49-33)
  5. Image result for cleveland cavaliers logo Cleveland Cavaliers (47-35)
  6. Related image Milwaukee Bucks (46-36)
  7. Related image Charlotte Hornets (46-36)
  8. Related image Philadelphia 76ers (44-38)

I think this is the year for the east and the west to begin to look more balanced.  The Celtics have a championship-caliber starting 5 that can take this team very far.  I feel that despite Toronto’s addition of Kawhi Leonard, the Wizards, not the Raptors will be the #2 seed behind Boston.  After the signing of Dwight Howard, they filled their only major hole: center.  Their back court is stacked between John Wall and Bradley Beal.  The Raptors should also be in the mix, as well as the Pistons.  I think the acquisition of Blake Griffin is really going to impact Detroit this year, as Andre Drummond and Griffin make for a dynamic duo that leads the Pistons to a comfortable playoff berth under new head coach Dwane Casey.  Detroit lacks the depth of a championship contender, but they have what it takes to make a playoff run.

Most people immediately think that since LeBron James is gone, the Cavaliers are going to suck.  But I don’t think lack of talent was the problem with LeBron’s supporting cast.  I feel that the team relied way too heavily on LeBron James.  Expect Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and their teammates to lead the Cavs to a decent season.  You may be wondering, where are the Sixers?  I don’t think Philly will repeat what they had going last year.  I tend to trust veterans more than youngsters, but I don’t yet trust Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid to lead the Sixers to two straight Top 4 seeds.  They may prove me very wrong this year, but I’m just not comfortable predicting that yet.  The Sixers will make the playoffs with a low-end seed, alongside the Bucks (Greek Freak and their young roster will bring them back to the playoffs), and the Hornets (I think this is the year for this young squad to finally breakthrough).

I do not have the Pacers, a popular pick to earn a Top-4 seed, making the playoffs, and I will explain why below.

Non-Playoff Teams

9. Image result for knicks logo New York Knicks (42-40)                                                                                             

10. Related image Chicago Bulls (41-41)

11. Image result for heat logo Miami Heat (41-41)

12. Related image Brooklyn Nets (37-45)

13. Image result for pacers logo Indiana Pacers (28-54)

14. Image result for orlando magic logo Orlando Magic (27-55)

15. Related image Atlanta Hawks (10-72)

I think this is the year that the Knicks (due to the return of Kristaps Porzingis) and the Bulls (due to a strong off-season) will go from the basement of the league to average teams that just miss the playoffs.  The Heat, who have a decent roster, but nothing that really stands out, are in the same situation.  The Nets should also get closer to that as their young core emerges.  Below those four teams, I have the Indiana Pacers.  I don’t see Victor Oladipo leading this team by himself like he did when he was traded last year.  I can’t see what he has around him that can lead to contention.  Bojan Bogdanovic and Oladipo are not enough to bring this team back to the playoffs, and I see the aforementioned teams as far more playoff-prepared.  I was shocked when they made the playoffs last year even.

I still see the Magic and Hawks finishing in the basement of the East, below Indiana.  Orlando had a versatile young core developing, but the losses of Oladipo and Elfrid Payton set them back.  The Hawks had a rough season in 2017-18, and they didn’t really do much to improve for this year.  They’re not rebuilding, but they don’t have any contending pieces either.  It’s time to go full rebuild for the Hawks, and I don’t expect much at all from them this year.

Western Conference

Playoff Teams

  1. Related image Golden State Warriors (66-16)
  2. Related image San Antonio Spurs (55-27)
  3. Related image Houston Rockets (54-28)
  4. Image result for thunder logo Oklahoma City Thunder (53-29)
  5. Related image Portland Trail Blazers (51-31)
  6. Image result for timberwolves logo Minnesota Timberwolves (48-34)
  7. Image result for lakers logo Los Angeles Lakers (45-37)
  8. Related image Dallas Mavericks (43-39)

The Warriors may have added a star center, DeMarcus Cousins this off-season, but I could see them regress mildly after losing a good amount of bench depth.  After Golden State, I have the Spurs.  I think they will benefit largely from the acquistion of DeMar DeRozan.  With a healthy core, they will be in the running for a high playoff seed.  The Rockets and Thunder will put up a fight for the second seed as well.  Houston has most of what they had going last year, and they added another key piece in Carmelo Anthony.  The duo of Paul George and Russell Westbrook will boost the Thunder this year alongside off-season acquistions Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel.

The Blazers lack the front court talent to contend for a title, but the back court duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum should be enough to get them into the playoffs again.  I thought at first that this might be the year when the Timberwolves emerge as a title contender, but with Jimmy Butler leaving, I don’t see more than a low end playoff seed as this team will lack a true star.  I don’t think the Lakers will see much more than that either.  What key pieces around LeBron James that will help them contend?  When LeBron was in Cleveland, he had Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving alongside him, at least up until last year.  His signing with LA was a great personal move, but he shouldn’t expect to make it back to the NBA Finals just yet.  I have the Mavericks in the final Western Conference playoff seed.  With the additions of rookie Luka Doncic and veteran center DeAndre Jordan, they should at least contend for a back end playoff seed.

Non-Playoff Teams

9. Related image Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)

10. Related image New Orleans Pelicans (37-45)

11. Image result for jazz logo Utah Jazz (34-48)

12. Related image Phoenix Suns (31-51)

13. Image result for kings logo Sacramento Kings (23-59)

14. Image result for nuggets logo Denver Nuggets (15-67)

15. Image result for clippers logo Los Angeles Clippers (12-70)

Despite a weak 2017-18, the Grizzlies still have the same core from their playoff contention days.  I could see them making a run at a low end playoff seed.  Expect regression from the Pelicans with DeMarcus Cousins gone, but new acquistions in Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle will keep this team in the hunt for the playoffs.  With teams like the Mavericks and Lakers on the rise, I could see the Jazz slip a little bit this year.  They still have the same core from their run of playoff contention though, so they won’t be absolutely atrocious.

The Suns and Kings will improve slightly as the young talent begins to work in their favor, leaving the Nuggets and Clippers in the basement of the West.  Denver lost a lot in the off-season despite adding veteran Isaiah Thomas.  With a lot of the former basement dwellers of the Western Conference rising, Denver could regress significantly.  That leaves the Clippers, who will regress further with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin gone.  They are left with an aging, declining core, and will need to go full rebuild after this season.

The Playoffs

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Here is my projected bracket for the NBA 2019 Playoffs.  In the first round, I have all home teams winning.  The top half of the Eastern Conference bracket is a lot stronger than the bottom half.  I see the Celtics, Raptors, Wizards, and Pistons moving on with ease, but don’t be surprised if the Bucks upset the Raptors.

In the West, I have the Spurs continuing their bounce back from a rough 2017-18 with an impressive series win over LeBron James and the Lakers.  The Rockets and Warriors will win more easily.  It could be close between Oklahoma City and Portland, but the Thunder have far better front court talent, and that will work in their favor.

The Pistons may be my dark horse in the East this season, but I cannot see them beating this stacked Celtics squad in 7.  I also see this as the end for the Wizards, as Kawhi Leonard leads the Raptors past Washington’s all-pro back court duo.  In the West, I do see the Spurs’ magical run ending when they take on the 2017-18 Western Conference regular season champion Houston Rockets, who have not lost much since their 2017-18 dominance.  Golden State should take down the Thunder with ease.

In the Conference Finals, I have the Warriors and Celtics winning.  The Rockets couldn’t top Golden State last year, and now that the Warriors have added DeMarcus Cousins, I cannot see it happening this year.  The Celtics will have a close series against Toronto, but I think their young talent and dominant starting 5 will help them advance.

Now, we have the match-up we’ve been waiting for.  The dynasty (the Warriors) takes on the rising challenger (the Celtics).  This is bound to be one of the best playoff series’ in recent history.  But who will finish the job?  The Warriors may have a star-studded starting 5, but I see their lack of a bench hurting them here.  I think this is the year that the Golden State dynasty will be overthrown.  The Boston Celtics will win the NBA Finals in 2019, starting a new dynasty.

Who do you have going all the way in the NBA?  Comment with your thoughts below, and stay tuned for more Celtics and NBA coverage soon.

 

March Madness 2017: Previewing the East Region

Welcome to Part 3 of my March Madness preview.  Last time, we looked at the Midwest region.  There were some potential upsets there but in the end, the top seeds rule that conference.  Now, we move on to the East Region, one of two regions that will truly define March Madness.  Yes, there will be some pretty hardcore madness in both the East and West.  Now let’s get to it.
Missed a previous article?  Check here:
 If you were also wondering about my full bracket, here it is.
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#5 Virginia Image result for virginia logo colored background vs. Image result for unc wilmington logo colored background #12 UNC Wilmington

Thursday 3/16 @12:40 PM EST on truTV

Virginia is a pretty good team, but I just don’t see them as a contender.  Sure, they had tough competition but they were very streaky and looked terrible at times.  UNC Wilmington didn’t play in as big a conference, but they were a much more consistent team.  They nearly upset the Duke Blue Devils last year in the first round.  UNC Wilmington has four players that average 12 PPG or more.  The Cavaliers only have one.  UNC Wilmington is the better team based on consistency and scoring and will pull the upset here.

The Pick: UNC Wilmington

 

#4 Florida Image result for florida gators logo colored background vs. Related image #13 ETSU

Thursday 3/16 @3:10 PM EST on truTV

Eastern Tennessee State was not even the favorite to win the Southern conference, a small conference.  I think you can trust the Gators here, at least in this round.  Sure, they’re an upset target after their SEC tourney performance.  But I think they can beat a team like ETSU, a team that wouldn’t be here without their conference tournament win.  Gators win easily in this round, but could the UNC Wilmington Seahawks give them trouble?

The Pick: Florida

 

#1 Villanova Related image vs. Image result for mount st mary's logo colored background  #16 Mount St. Mary’s

Thursday 3/16 @7:10 PM EST on CBS

Mount St. Mary’s just beat New Orleans in their First Four game, but beating Villanova, the defending champion and number one overall seed will be a much tougher challenge.  Villanova will have it easy here.  There’s no way the #1 seed will be beaten by the #16 seed, especially when it’s the #1 overall seed.  This game is going to the Wildcats in a clear blowout.

The Pick: Villanova

 

#8 Wisconsin Image result for wisconsin badgers logo colored background vs. Related image #9 Virginia Tech

Thursday 3/16 @9:40 PM on CBS

Virginia Tech has had a good season, but the Badgers are an underrated team that should be higher.  They were runner-up in the Big Ten tourney and regular season play.  Wisconsin should’ve been seeded higher, but even in the #8 seed, they could be a serious contender and sneaky dark horse team, especially if they face Villanova in the Round of 32.  That game could go either way.  Yes, I think Wisconsin is good enough to potentially beat the Wildcats.  They should be able to top the Hokies.

The Pick: Wisconsin

 

#3 Baylor Image result for baylor logo colored background vs. Image result for new mexico state aggies logo colored background #14 New Mexico State

Friday 3/17 @12:40 PM on truTV

Baylor started off the season very strongly.  They looked like a #1 seed.  However, towards the end of the season, they quietly collapsed.  They eventually started losing to teams like Iowa State and ended up far from the regular season Big 12 title.  The Aggies have found their way to pull some upsets in this tourney before, and they might have a chance to shock Baylor here while they’re on a downward track.  This game could actually go either way.

The Pick: New Mexico State

 

#6 SMU Related image vs. Image result for usc logo red background Image result for providence logo black background #11 USC/Providence

Friday 3/17 @3:10 PM EST on truTV

I know, SMU is one of the highest trending teams in the league and a serious sleeper, but their fate depends on this First Four game.  If Providence wins, SMU could move on to be a serious sleeper.  If USC wins, they could have the power to upset SMU before they can upset other teams.  USC just barely made it, but they weren’t so bad in a tough Pac-12.  Now that they’re here, USC could be very sneaky and dangerous for other teams.  They just have to beat Providence, which I think they’ll do.

The Pick: USC

 

#2 Duke Related image vs. Related image #15 Troy

Friday 3/17 @7:20 PM EST on TBS

Troy wouldn’t be here if they didn’t win their conference, and they weren’t even close to being the favorite to win it.  They were not even in the Top 5 in the Sun Belt Conference,  and they don’t have that hard a conference to play in.  Duke will surely be able to top them.  You can never count out Duke.  They had some inconsistencies this season, but this game is clearly in their favor.  They will at least make it far.

The Pick: Duke

 

#7 South Carolina Image result for south carolina logo colored background vs. Related image #10 Marquette

Friday 3/17 @9:50 PM EST on TBS

The Gamecocks finished the season poorly, but Marquette should not be here.  They’re 19-12 in the Big East and they made it to the NCAA Tournament.  South Carolina may have it easier than you think in the first round.  This could be anybody’s game, but this will be painful to watch.  The winner will go on to play Duke and likely be annihilated.  But in this game, I think South Carolina will edge out the victory.

The Pick: South Carolina

 

Round of 32 Preview

Here’s a look at what the Round of 32 may look like:

#1 Villanova Related image vs. Image result for wisconsin badgers logo colored background #8 Wisconsin

#4 Florida Image result for florida gators logo colored background vs. Image result for unc wilmington logo colored background #12 UNC Wilmington

#14 New Mexico State Image result for new mexico state aggies logo colored background vs. Image result for usc logo red background #11 USC

#2 Duke Related image vs. Image result for south carolina logo colored background #7 South Carolina

Like I said, Duke will annihilate South Carolina, or Marquette if they win.  Now for the true meaning of March Madness.  First off, it’s tough to pick between NM State and USC, but one of them will face Duke in the Sweet 16.  They probably won’t get much farther than that, though.  Now, the two upsets I will predict in this round are UNC Wilmington over Florida and Wisconsin over Villanova.  Despite Villanova being the #1 overall seed, it’s hard to win two years in a row.  Villanova has struggled as a #1 seed, and Wisconsin could be a very sneaky sleeper.  I also think UNC Wilmington is capable of making the Sweet 16.  Florida did not do well in the SEC tourney and UNC Wilmington is a serious dark horse.  That would send Wisconsin, UNC Wilmington, New Mexico State or USC, and Duke to the Sweet 16,

 

And the projected East champion is…

#2 Duke Related image

You can never count out Duke.  Still, the Blue Devils have been inconsistent, so they will make it far, but I don’t think they’ll win the championship.  However, the trio of Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum and Amile Jefferson should allow Duke to come out of this region.  Especially if Villanova is upset like I think they will be, Duke could become a serious threat in this region.  Like I said, I trust all the #2 seeds to go far.

 

That’s all for Part 3.  In Part 4, the final part, we will look at the West Region, and I will share my reason behind my Final Four predictions.  Part 4 will be coming before the tourney starts on Thursday.