NFL Week 3 Picks

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The last two weeks have been big disappointments for me, in picks at least. I have been limited to just an 18-14 record in the last two weeks. I’m hoping this week is at least a 12-4 week, and so far I’m 1-0. Will this week be different? Read my picks to see how I’ll do in your mind. You can share your opinions in the comments.

Me vs. The Pros

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Lock Of The Week

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The 49ers did show promise the last couple of weeks, but they were up against defenses that were good in one area, and weak in another. Both the Panthers and Rams have a great pass rush, but their secondaries struggle. The Seahawks overpowered defense has no known weakness for the Niners to go at. The Seahawks will continue a low scoring trend and only score 20 against the Niners decent D, but this will be an all out shutdown game, as the Seahawks overwhelm the 49ers offense. The Seahawks will also continue their trend of being nearly impossible to beat at home. Quick win for the Seahawks.

Upset Of The Week

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At the start of the season, I had been saying that the Eagles will be terrible, but Carson Wentz has really impressed me these first two weeks and I have grown to like this 2016 Eagles offense. Sure, the defense still isn’t great, but they have something going on the offensive side of the ball. Personally, if everyone gives it their all, I think thy have enough willpower to shock the Steelers. I started the season thinking the Steelers were overrated, but right now the Steelers are just in a big pickle without many good receiving weapons besides Antonio Brown. The Steelers were already lacking depth on offense, now the problem has gotten out of hand. I say the Eagles pick up the win in an offensive shootout. Down with the Steelers!

 

 

The Other Games

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I originally thought the Bills revamped defense was going to win them this game, but no way in a million years will that happen! These Cardinals aren’t going anywhere. They are arguably the best all-around team in the league, and I thought the Bills were going to beat them. This week, I see the Cardinals scoring a good amount of points and the Bills offense not scoring quite enough to challenge the Cards. Yes, the Bills may look impressive early in the game like they sometimes do. But if they do, don’t expect them to hold the lead very long. The Bills haven’t made the playoffs since the 1990s. I don’t know what made me think they’d go back this year.

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You may be wondering why I predicted such a low scoring game when the Vikings could just throw the ball and take advantage of Carolina’s weak secondary if the Panthers offense doesn’t score as much as expected. But, you can’t throw the ball when your QB is being overwhelmed by a league-best pass rush. Sam Bradford will not have the chance to throw. He will be stuffed, over and over again. Without Sam Bradford at his best, the Vikings won’t have a chance in this game. Unless Bradford really is back to normal health and Philly was just a bad fit for him, I don’t see that happening. The Panthers pass rush saves their butts in this game.

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The Broncos defense will be good in this game against a weakened Cincinnati offense, but I think the most underrated unit in this match-up is the Bengals defense. They don’t have Vontaze Burfict back yet, but they have some great pass rush guys who are going to take care of Trevor Siemian. The Broncos offense will flop in this game after being pressured by the Bengals defense. Without Siemian playing well, this whole offense goes down the drain. That’s why a good QB was so important for this team. But Siemian has proved us wrong. In the last two weeks, he has proved to be a good QB. But this week, his lack of experience will just lash out against a tough D, and the Broncos will drop this game, especially since they’re on the road for the first time this season. As you know, the Broncos are a very different team at home, and it is hard to win at their stadium if your team is not named the Denver Broncos.

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The Lions offense will be a lot better in this game, but in Green Bay, the Packers will just be too tough to beat. The Packers offense is even better than the Lions offense. This game should be fun to watch. I see a very high scoring game where good defense is nowhere to be found. Especially without Ameer Abdullah though, the Lions offense won’t have nearly enough in them to compete with this Packers team. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, what a great offense. They won’t let Packers fans down at Lambeau. In addition, the Packers defense is at least mildly better than the Lions D. Clay Matthews and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are a lot better than Haloti Ngata and Glover Quin in today’s NFL.

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The Ravens have really bounced back this season. Mike Wallace has been straight-up awesome, and this offense looks like it belongs to a playoff contender again. But what, you think they’ll go so far that they go undefeated? No way! The Jaguars were robbed in the first two weeks of the season, and I expected a lot better. I also expect that the young offense will bounce back this week, and earn themselves a big win. Look, the Jaguars beat the Ravens a year ago, when both of these teams were bad. This year, they’re both revamped, and in Jacksonville, the Jags should win again. They have revamped defense, young offense, and at least at the start of the season were spectated as as much of playoff contenders as the Ravens are. Expect the Jags to pull off a lot of upsets in the coming weeks, even with a tough schedule.

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Okay, the Dolphins aren’t typically this good, in any game. But this is the Browns, down to their third string QB, with a defense terrible as always. The Dolphins will rout the Browns, the defense will look better than usual, and the Dolphins offense that’s full of potential will take advantage of the Browns weak defense. I think this week we will see a very different Dolphins team than usual. Ryan Tannehill will look better, DeVante Parker will have a breakout-leading game, and Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron will also be on their best. I know Arian Foster is out, and they’re down to Jay Ajayi at running back. But the Dolphins offense, especially Tannehill and his receivers and tight ends will do strongly against the weak Browns D.

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This is going to be a very interesting game. For the first of two times this season, Josh Norman and Odell Beckham Jr. are going to be going at it again. I think the Giants will try and use the rest of their offense to power past the Redskins. OBJ will have a very tough match-up, but Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz will get some receptions and possibly a TD as well. The running game will also be strong, and the defense should still be good. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense will have success, but not enough to top the Giants. Towards the end of the game, the Giants offense will lash out and the defense will shut down the ‘Skins for the remainder of the game.

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Yes, the Titans offense has shown improvement. But the Raiders are shaping into a decent all around team. The Titans defense is still an absolute joke. Derek Carr and his offense will dominate the Titans D, and while the Titans offense tries to do the same to the Raiders and make this a shootout, the Raiders defense will take charge, overpower the Titans, and hold them to one TD. The Raiders are highly underrated, and will take a win here, earning them a winning record once again. Marcus Mariota and the Titans will try, but the all-around revamped Raiders will be too much for them. Amari Cooper should have a huge game against a weak Titans D, and Derek Carr and the Raiders will get a big win.

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The Buccaneers had a rough week last week, but they enter a much easier match-up. I see Jameis Winston and the offense bouncing back, making fans remember what Winston did in Week 1. The only reason the Rams did win last week is that the Seahawks offense is not great on the road. The Rams are not that great a team, especially if they’re not even going to start the 1st overall pick. Look at what Carson Wentz has done in Philly! For now, the underrated Buccaneers defense should beat the Rams down, and Jameis Winston will bounce back completely against a much easier NFC West opponent this week. That should lead to a big win for the Bucs.

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The Chargers offense has been brilliant the last two weeks. But even with Andrew Luck struggling last week, Andrew Luck will be on his best this week, and lead the Colts to a big win over the Chargers. The Colts defense should be able to hold up the Chargers, and prove their big push faulty. I actually think the Colts defense has improved in the last 2 years. Andrew Luck and the offense will also be a lot better against the weak Chargers D, and the Colts should get an easy win here. I don’t know why so many people think otherwise, or even think about picking the Chargers.

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This is a very intriguing match-up. The Jets offense is pretty good, and Matt Forte has looked awesome. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have a good connection with Ryan Fitzpatrick too. The Chiefs defense is also really good, and the Chiefs are really a great all around team this year. I think the Chiefs pass rush and the rest of their strong defense will overpower the Jets decent offense, and the Chiefs powerful offense will be too much for the Jets defense. Basically, this game is good against decent, and the Jets will compete, but the Chiefs should grab the win in the end.

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Dak Prescott was really impressive in the preseason. But in regular season, he hasn’t been quite as good. This week will be an easy match-up for him, but the Bears offense is good, and upset hungry. This will be a pretty high scoring game, but in the end the Cowboys will win. Dak Prescott will show signs of bringing back preseason glory. Dez Bryant, Ezekiel Elliott and Jason Witten could be dominant with a good QB. The Bears offense will take advantage of the easy Cowboys D, but they don’t have the Cowboys’ dominance, and that will be the difference in the game.

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The Saints defense will give up some points, but the offense is still really good, and I still trust them after a disappointment last week. The Falcons defense honestly isn’t great either, and this Saints offense still looks great at its best. Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, Coby Fleener and Drew Brees all have it in them. This one should be a high scoring game, and the Saints offense will make up for a terrible defensive performance against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. This will be a good game for all fantasy players, even Matt Ryan owners this week.

TNF

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I was right that Jacoby Brissett actually would lead the Pats to a victory, but I was wrong about Brock Osweiler’s offense. The Texans defense is really good, despite weak spots. I didn’t expect Brock Osweiler, Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins to do so badly against the Pats defense. One thing I did know is this would be a watchable game that is a preview of the playoffs. The Texans were doing well with Osweiler, and I think they still will, but the Patriots were too tough for them. Nobody messes with the Pats. They’re 3-0 already, and I’m sure they’ll continue to do well.

This week is full of good games, surprises and upsets in my opinion, but what do you think of this week’s games? Comment your picks below!

 

 

 

NFL Week 13 Match-Up Breakdown

Favorite Match-Ups

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This intense New York match-up technically has no home team, but season tickets and such give the Giants some edge.  Both of these teams have dominant offense, so watch for a shootout.  The issue is, making sure these offenses work together, despite plenty of options for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning.  So, that makes this a very intriguing match-up.  But when teams are so close like this, I usually just pick the home team.  Anyhow, there are still things to watch for from both offenses.

What To Watch For

Jets – All eyes on Jets running backs.  Chris Ivory, Stevan Ridley and Bilal Powell take on a somewhat weak Giants rush D.  The secondary isn’t much better.  Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has got Brandon Marshall taken care of, but also open your peepers for Eric Decker.

Giants – Can Hakeem Nicks make an impact?  Darrelle Revis is out, so either him or Rueben Randle will be left with Buster Skrine, while Antonio Cromartie takes on OBJ.  Nicks was signed by the Giants in the middle of November.

Pick A Winner!

Me            My Dad    Jill Mengel ( participates in my picks pool as well)

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This may be match-up of the week. This will surely shake up the playoff picture, and it’s between two underrated teams.  The Seahawks lost Jimmy Graham last week to a torn patellar tendon.  The Seahawks must rely on other lower tier receivers like Doug Baldwin, Luke Willson and Tyler Lockett.  Meanwhile, the Vikings star running back, Adrian Peterson, will be too heavily guarded to do much against a strong Seattle defense.  Their good receiver trio will also be guarded, Charles Johnson, Stefon Diggs and Mike Wallace.  They must rely on their own tight end, Kyle Rudolph.  We last saw him at this level in 2013, when AP was hurt.

What To Watch For

Seahawks – All eyes on Thomas Rawls.  Rawls had a 60 yard game vs the Steelers last week and hopes to continue to damage the Vikings.  The rookie is the Stefon Diggs of Seattle.

Vikings – Like I said, watch for Kyle Rudolph.  He had his big year in 2013, and it’s almost seemed like he retired, but he is still really there.  If you throw to him more, maybe he’ll get his groove going again.  And just in time for Christmas :).

Pick A Winner!

Me         My Dad       Jill

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This tough AFC West match-up could factor into deciding Denver’s faith.  If Denver wins, then it’s down to this game to decide if they clinch the division.  If the Chiefs win, then Denver’s still fighting.  If the Raiders win, they clinch.  Despite Kansas City’s red hot reign, Oakland has potential to win this game.  They’re such a feast or famine team.  Today better be a feast, despite Oakland’s recent struggles.

What To Watch For

Chiefs – Chiefs receivers Jeremy Maclin and Albert Wilson must be on their best against a weak Raiders secondary.  Watch for Jeremy Maclin to have a big game.  He’ll be motivated, with Travis Kelce under Charles Woodson’s watch.

Raiders – Amari Cooper shall feast on the Chiefs.  If Amari Cooper gets something going, he can have a third hundred yard game.  Otherwise, he’ll have a sixth 20 or less yard game.

Pick A Winner!

Me    My Dad     Jill

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In another match-up crucial to the playoff picture.  In just the blink of an eye, with a Steelers win, they’ll be in the playoff picture, and the Colts culd be out, especially if Houston wins.  Big Ben will play, even a little banged up, but they have good receiving options, and a stud handcuff to Le’ Veon Bell (MCL tear) in DeAngelo Williams.  Can Big Ben lead them to victory over Matt Hasselbeck’s Colts, 4-0 under him?

What To Watch For

Colts – Watch for Andre Johnson and other high tier receivers.  Johnson , the veteran, has been left be practically all season, and now is his time to make a mark in what may be his final season of a sensational career before retiring.

Steelers – DeAngelo Williams!!!  Williams is bound for a big game against a somewhat weak Colts Rush D.  Also look for Markus Wheaton to continue what he did last week at CenturyLink, a sequel.  Except this time, the Steelers can more easily get the W.

Pick A Winner!

Me     My Dad     Jill

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The Cowboys are missing Tony Romo again, this time for the rest of the season.  They have yet to win a game without him in the backfield.  Meanwhile, the Redskins are suddenly heating up, and snatched the weak NFC East.  Can they continue their reign over the division or will they fall.  This game is an important one to win, although it will be close.  Will Dallas stay win-less when Romo-less?

What To Watch For

Cowboys – Watch for the tight ends.  The weak Redskins secondary only has enough to cover Dez Bryant with their stars.  Jason Witten and Gavin Escobar will be left to … DOMINATE!!!  Seriously, don’t forget those tight ends.

Redskins – If their offense can keep their groove, and the youngsters continue to play as big of a role as they have, then the Redskins should be fine and win this easily.

Pick A Winner!

Me    My Dad      Jill

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Bold Predictions

  1. Tom Brady Throws 5 TDs for 400+ yards

I think Tom Brady will have a big game.  It’s easy against the Eagles 😀

2. J.J Watt Holds Bills To Just 100 Total Rush Yards

When you’re J.J. Watt, you dominate.  It’s what you do.

3. Jordan Cameron Goes For 100 Yards, TD

Jarvis Landry will draw Kyle Arrington’s attention.  That takes care of teh Baltimore secondary.

4. Bengals RBs have combined 200 yard game

Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard face a Browns rush D on the weaker side 0f things.

5. Despite Loss, Bortles Throws For 350, 2 TDs

Blake Bortles shall dominate the Titans defense, even if Mariota makes up for it.  It’ll be a shootout.

6. Even With Forte In, Langford Rushes For 75

Matt Forte has NaVorro Bowman.  They’ll leave Jeremy Langford alone.

7. Matt Ryan Bounces Back, Throws 4 TDs In Win

Matt Ryan’s primed for another long waited breakout weak

8. Rams Pull The Upset Switch, But Suck In Fantasy

This game will be a team effort.

9. San Diego Gets Held To 0 TDs

They can kick all the field goals they’d like!

10. CAR @ NO: Neither Team Scores Even 20

These two defenses are underrated!