Welcome to my 2nd annual MLB free agency predictions. Last off-season, things took a long time to get going due to a relatively dull free agent market. This year, that is not the case. We might have the best MLB free agent class in the history of my blog, and it’s bound to get going any minute now. That’s why I’m releasing my predictions in November and December this year rather than January. I wanted to get these out before the Winter Meetings, where a lot of big moves could occur.
Today, I will be sharing my predictions for free agent pitchers. Feel free to comment with your thoughts.
Below is my tentative schedule for my 2018-19 MLB free agency coverage.
Week of November 19: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers
Week of November 19 or 26: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Catchers & Infielders
Week of November 26 or December 3: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders & Trade Ideas
Week of December 3 or 10: Baseball Bits #11: Big Free Agent Contracts
Note: These were made BEFORE the James Paxton trade
The Jays have a lot of infield prospects on the rise. But their starting rotation needs some help if they want to contend. They will surely go after the market’s top starters. They are open to bringing back J.A. Happ, but I think Dallas Keuchel and Ervin Santana fit their mold better. Keuchel will serve as Toronto’s ace, where they will need an upgrade with Marco Estrada leaving. Santana isn’t what he used to be, but will still boost their rotation, especially if he rebounds fully from his injury in 2018. Meanwhile, Happ will head to the Angels to provide stability in an injury prone rotation that will be without Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees will pursue a younger starter like Patrick Corbin to upgrade the rotation in the long term, and an older starter to supplement the rotation until younger Yankees pitchers are ready to take over.
Jerry Dipoto had intended to rebuild this off-season. But they have too much talent on the rise to just start over now. It would be a Marlins-like move to rebuild now. I think it would be smarter for them to add a mid to high tier starter such as Gio Gonzalez or Nathan Eovaldi and an outfielder or two to supplement the young talent. Charlie Morton will leave Houston for and sign with the Nationals, who could use a #3 starter to replace Gio Gonzalez and add depth to the rotation.
High to Mid-Tier Starters
Shields will return to the White Sox. They will seek to be led by young talent, but need Shields back for depth. The Padres will also bring back their veteran starter, Tyson Ross for similar reasons. I could also see them adding Garrett Richards among other veterans as future investments to guide their return to contention. Richards will miss 2019, but hopefully, he’ll come back as a better pitcher in 2020. I think Jason Hammel is a good veteran fit for the Yankees.
If the Rays want to make the playoffs, their “committee day” in their rotation isn’t going to fly. They’ll need to add rotation depth, and Estrada seems like a good fit for them. He has experience in the AL East, and a mid-tier starter or two is just what Tampa needs. The Orioles could also use another starter. They aren’t signing anyone too expensive as they start a rebuild, but Yovani Gallardo has been on the team before and could be a good bargain signing for them.
Mid to Low Tier Starters
Eovaldi really boosted his free agent profile in the playoffs. But I think the Red Sox will be willing to offer him a long term contract after his playoff performance. The Rays will add Derek Holland as another option for the rotation. Holland, Tyler Glasnow, and Brent Honeywell will likely fight for the final two spots in the rotation. I think Ryan Yarbrough fits best as a long reliever. Similar to the O’s, the Royals and Tigers will look for affordable rotation depth. I think Lynn and Santiago are good fits. I could see Chris Tillman joining the Braves, who may seek a veteran starter to fill in until their pitching prospects are ready. I think the Giants should sign a lower tier starter, such as Jaime Garcia to give them options if young starters Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Ty Blach struggle.
Top Tier Closers and Late-Inning Relievers
There has been a lot of hype surrounding Kimbrel after he turned down the qualifying offer, but I think he will return to the Red Sox. He just wanted a longer term deal. The teams that were in the running for Kimbrel such as the Angels and Phillies will settle for other top closers such as Mark Melancon and Zach Britton. I think Jeurys Familia, another top closer will go to the White Sox as they try to take steps toward contention. I could see the Mariners keeping active in the free agent market by adding another bullpen arm in Miller. The Reds could also use a bullpen arm to replace Drew Storen, and Brach seems to be a good fit. He can close or set up, and he and Raisel Iglesias could make a strong veteran-younger player late-inning combo.
Pittsburgh’s #1 hole right now is their bullpen. They’ll look to add multiple quality relievers. As they rebuild, they are not in the running for the market’s top closers. But Herrera is a reasonable closing option for them. Some other rebuilding teams who need closers, such as the O’s, Royals, and Rangers, will have to settle for lower-tier closers such as Tyler Clippard and Cody Allen. Meanwhile, I see veteran closer Greg Holland headed to Tampa, hoping to rebound from a rough 2018. Holland is an affordable option for a Rays team that wants to make the jump from mediocre to playoff contender. Storen, another seasoned veteran, could make for a good duo with fellow late-inning reliever Addison Reed for Minnesota.
Low Tier Closer-Mid Tier Set-Up
Herrera isn’t quite enough to fill Pittsburgh’s late inning hole. Romo could be a good fit. The Brewers could also use another late inning arm. They don’t need a top tier guy, but someone like A.J. Ramos or Santiago Casilla could definitely help. I think Casilla will return to the A’s though, and Zach McAllister, another mid-tier reliever, will return to Detroit, where he spent just about a week in his final MLB stint of 2018. The Rockies could resign Adam Ottavino, but I think they will go for a slight upgrade, Justin Wilson, with the Indians adding Ottavino to supplement Brad Hand and replace Andrew Miller.
Low Tier Late Inning Relievers
The Braves have been a rumored suitor to bring back Craig Kimbrel, but they should trust Arodys Vizcaino as their closer and add a lower tier late inning reliever to support him (I see them adding Maurer). The White Sox will sign Tony Sipp as a slight upgrade over Jeanmar Gomez, who I have going to Detroit. Gomez and McAllister will set up closer Shane Greene. The Royals will also look for an affordable bullpen arm. They should be set in the late-inning department with the duo of Clippard and Boone Logan. The Mets will be active in this free agent market, and they need late-inning help. Aaron Loup is a good addition, but I don’t have them adding a closer. Jenrry Mejia is eligible to return in 2019, and the Mets should be hopeful he can close. Duke will play a similar role in Toronto, setting up closer Ken Giles.
High Tier 7th Inning Relief
If the Red Sox bring back Kimbrel, they should be fine to let Carson Smith and maybe even Joe Kelly test the market. I think Smith will find a destination despite his injury, as the Twins sign him to supplement the late-inning duo of Storen and Reed. The Angels, who will still look for more bullpen help beyond Britton, will sign Kelly. If he’s having a good year, Kelly can become the full-time set up man in LA over Cam Bedrosian. Norris, a former starter, can provide the Rays with a trustworthy 7th inning arm. Jake Diekman should play a similar role in San Francisco. The O’s and Reds could also use bullpen help, but cannot afford the top guys in the market. They will settle for Axford and Warren, respectively.
That’s all for Part 1 of my MLB FA Predictions. Stay tuned for Part 2, where I will evaluate the catcher market and the infield market. This comes in good timing, as Kurt Suzuki just signed in Washington, and J.T. Realmuto trade rumors are reaching their peak.
Note: I think the Marlins will end up trading Realmuto to Atlanta with Kurt Suzuki off the table. The Marlins should sign another catcher to supplement Chad Wallach.
With Eric Hosmer, Yu Darvish and J.D. Martinez finally signed, the free agent market is heating up. As an MLB fan, it was just painful to see the lack of action that occurred for much of the off-season. From the end of December to the 2nd week of February, the free agent market was nearly silent. But once Spring Training started, it served as a wake-up call to the MLB teams who continued to wait on signing the free agents they were targeting. It’s free agency that keeps me following baseball during the off-season, so I’m glad that it’s finally getting going.
The only MLB news during those quiet weeks was rumors and predictions as to where these free agents would sign. The FA market may be in action, but there are still many high profile free agents out there, and I would be surprised if they are not signed by the start of the regular season. It’s still crazy that we’re talking about this on the first day of Grapefruit and Cactus League action.
Below I have listed the Top 15 remaining free agents and predicted where they will sign:
1. Jake Arrieta
2017 Team: Chicago Cubs
Original Prediction: Baltimore Orioles, 4 years, $92 million
Revised Prediction: Washington Nationals, 3 years, $63 million
Now that the Orioles have signed Chris Tillman and Andrew Cashner, they do not seem to be in the market for a high profile starter anymore, although they may sign another lower tier pitcher for the #5 spot. Their rotation looks a little more respectable now between Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy and Cashner. Mike Wright, Miguel Castro and Alec Asher among others will compete for the #5 spot unless another starter is signed.
The Brewers appear to be the top suitor for Arrieta, but the Nats, Phillies and Twins have also shown interest. Although Washington’s rotation is already led by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Arrieta would be a good fit as the Nats have struggled to find a 5th starter. Many of Washington’s stars also share an agent with Arrieta. If Arrieta signs here, then Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark would line up as #4 and #5 starters, while Strasburg, Scherzer, and Arrieta could potentially go on to become one of the best rotation trios in the MLB. As for the Brewers, I think Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn would be a better fit for them.
2. Mike Moustakas
2017 Team: Kansas City Royals
Original Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals, 3 years, $54 million
Revised Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals, 3 years, $54 million
I’m standing by my original prediction here. I honestly think St. Louis is the best fit for Moose, although the Braves, White Sox or Yankees may be more likely to sign him. Of those four teams, I think the Cardinals and Braves are the most likely to sign a third baseman before Opening Day. The White Sox have plenty of depth in their infield, they were just considering a veteran third baseman to aid their rebuild. The Braves are also rebuilding, but they don’t have the same kind of infield depth, and I don’t know if Rio Ruiz or Johan Camargo are viable big league starters yet.
Meanwhile, the Yankees could use an upgrade, but seem satisfied with Miguel Andujar and Brandon Drury among others for 3B options. The Cardinals will sign Moose in order to give themselves more options in the infield. Rather than forcing Jedd Gyorko into the starting third base job, they can let Gyorko share time with Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong in the middle infield.
3. Alex Cobb
2017 Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Original Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 3 years, $42 million
Revised Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, 4 years, $68 million
I had Cobb going to Chicago as a veteran influence who would let younger starters take more time to develop before jumping into the White Sox starting five. But with Yu Darvish signed, there are other teams that appear to want him more, such as the Brewers and Twins. I think he’s more likely to go Milwaukee than a rebuilding team. The Brewers would pay him more money, and he would be a leader to an improving rotation on a contending team. I’m sure Alex Cobb wants to sign with a winner if he can. The Brewers have the tools to contend, but need to add a #1 starter, and I think Cobb is capable of living up to Milwaukee’s expectations.
Now that the Twins acquired Jake Odorizzi before Milwaukee could, the Brewers have two options. They can try and get Cleveland to give them Danny Salazar in exchange for an outfielder or two (which the Indians could use), or they could sign a free agent pitcher. I think free agency is the safer option for the Brewers right now.
4. Lance Lynn
2017 Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Original Prediction: Miami Marlins, 2 years, $27 million
Revised Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years, $45 million
The Phillies have a decent-looking roster after what I would call a successful rebuild. But in order to be a contender in coming years, it’s time to sign some veterans. Some of this can wait till next off-season, when the free agent class is much better than this year’s group, but if they even want to have a chance at landing top free agents next year, they need to start thinking about contention this year, starting by signing a high-tier starter to bolster their rotation. While they don’t need an ace just yet, Lynn would be a good fit as they could use a better #2 starter behind rising star Aaron Nola.
5. Greg Holland
2017 Team: Colorado Rockies
Original Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $42.5 million
Revised Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals, 4 years, $40 million
Holland won’t be able to get as big of a contract now that he’s waited this long to sign, but I do think he will be the closer somewhere by Opening Day. Milwaukee’s late inning crew is all set now between Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel and Boone Logan among others. But St. Louis could use a late inning reliever to pair with Luke Gregerson, and Holland would be a great fit. In this case, Holland would be the full time closer with Gregerson shifting into the set up role.
6. Jonathan Lucroy
2017 Team: Colorado Rockies
Original Prediction: Los Angeles Angels, 5 years, $57 million
Revised Prediction: Los Angeles Angels, 2 years, $22 million
I’m standing by my prediction for where Lucroy signs, but I don’t think he can get a long term deal at this point in the off-season. In a couple of years, either Martin Maldonado or Carlos Perez will be ready to thrive as a starting catcher. Lucroy is a high-tier catcher, but it’s hard for any player to get a large contract at this point in the off-season, let alone a catcher. Lucroy will be a seasoned starter at catcher for the Angels, and he’ll make the lineup even stronger with his big bat.
7. Neil Walker
2017 Teams: New York Mets/Milwaukee Brewers
Original Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, 4 years, $46 million
Revised Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, 2 years, $23 million
Walker is in a similar situation to Lucroy here. I still think he’ll end up in the same place that I had originally thought, but his likelihood of a long-term deal decreases as the off-season progresses. The Brew Crew could use a second base upgrade beyond Jonathan Villar and Eric Sogard, especially if they want to contend. They know Walker after he spent the second half of 2017 in Milwaukee, and he’s still a good fit.
2017 Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Original Prediction: New York Mets, 2 years, $12 million
Revised Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 1 year, $7 million
There hasn’t been that much interest in free agent first baseman that aren’t named Eric Hosmer this off-season, which could leave Morrison and Lucas Duda without a team to begin 2018. But there are a few teams who could still use a first baseman, like the Royals, who lost out on Hosmer, Rockies, who may need another option aside from the young Ryan McMahon, Athletics, and Mariners, who could each use a veteran influence at first to rotate with their young first basemen. I see Morrison, arguably the best first baseman left, signing in Kansas City to help fill the hole that Hosmer left. Although the Royals are rebuilding, they don’t have many prospects ready on the right side of the infield. Most of their young infielders who are ready to start will either play shortstop or third base.
9. Jon Jay
2017 Team: Chicago Cubs
Original Prediction: Oakland Athletics, 2 years, $22 million
Revised Prediction: Texas Rangers, 2 years, $17 million
I don’t think he can still get a $22 million deal, and I don’t think he’s going to Oakland anymore. Now that the Athletics acquired DH Brandon Moss, they have another veteran in the mix and will not need Jay. The Rangers will be looking for an upgrade over or platoon mate for CF Delino DeShields, and Jay could play either of those roles. Although Willie Calhoun will be MLB ready soon, the Rangers could use another veteran like Jay as a placeholder.
10. Lucas Duda
2017 Teams: New York Mets/Tampa Bay Rays
Original Prediction: Oakland Athletics, 2 years, $15 million
Revised Prediction: Seattle Mariners, 2 years, $18 million
I reconsidered this prediction because I do not think the A’s necessarily need a first baseman with Matt Olson ready for a full time job, and if they sign one, they will not chase the best first basemen left in Morrison and Duda. The Mariners may need another option at first base with Ryon Healy injured. He won’t necessarily be ready for a full time job either, and that’s why I see Seattle giving Duda more money and a 2 year deal. They could go with their other 1B prospects, but I see Seattle signing Duda and giving other prospects more time to develop before competing with Healy at first.
11. Brandon Phillips
2017 Teams: Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Angels
Original Prediction: Detroit Tigers, 2 years, $14 million
Revised Prediction: Detroit Tigers, 2 years, $14 million
I’m standing by my original prediction here. The Tigers are rebuilding, but they could use a veteran infielder in case Dixon Machado or Jeimer Candelario don’t live up to their expectations in the big leagues. I don’t think Detroit will sign both Phillips and J.J. Hardy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign one. Phillips is the better fit of the two on this rebuilding Detroit team. Phillips is capable of being a starter, so if they start him in 2018, Jose Iglesias, Machado and Candelario will work out some sort of rotation at shortstop and third since Nick Castellanos is going to start in the outfield this year. But I don’t think the Tigers will necessarily start Phillips every day, and they may throw him into that rotation if he is signed.
12. Carlos Gonzalez
2017 Team: Colorado Rockies
Original Prediction: Seattle Mariners, 3 years, $34.5 million
Revised Prediction: Seattle Mariners, 1 year, $9 million
CarGo did not have a strong year in 2017, and I don’t think he can get more than a 1 year contract at this point. CarGo may still have power hitting abilities, but no team would dare risk more than a 1 year contract on him. I still see him going to the Mariners. They don’t know how Dee Gordon will fare as an outfielder, and the rest of their outfielders are inexperienced, failing to prove themselves as everyday starters. Gonzalez can play right field in Seattle, with Gordon playing center and Mitch Haniger, Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel splitting time in left (and possibly playing in the place of Gordon or CarGo if they struggle).
13. Melky Cabrera
2017 Teams: Chicago White Sox/Kansas City Royals
Original Prediction: Atlanta Braves, 3 years, $42 million
Revised Prediction: Miami Marlins, 2 years, $17 million
The Braves could use a veteran outfielder to fill in until Ronald Acuna is ready, but I think they can manage with Lane Adams and Preston Tucker until he cracks the majors. You never know, he could win the Opening Day starting job in left field if he has a strong Spring Training. The Marlins need some veterans in their outfield until guys like Magneuris Sierra, Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison are ready for full time jobs. The Marlins traded away all three of last year’s outfield starters.
They got some outfielders back, but not all of them are ready to start. Cabrera, along with the recently signed Cameron Maybin will help out until they are ready. Although the Marlins only need veteran outfielders for a year or so, while Cabrera wants two years. He can play alongside the younger guys in 2019, and he can serve as a veteran mentor.
2017 Team: Los Angeles Angels
Original Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 3 years, $39 million
Revised Prediction: Atlanta Braves, 3 years, $27 million
The White Sox can probably manage with what they have at third between Yolmer Sanchez, Tyler Saladino and other prospects. But the Braves, another rebuilding team, are finally on the verge of contention. First, they’ll need a new third baseman after Adonis Garcia didn’t work out. Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz will be considered, but I don’t know if they are ready for full time roles, so they may need to add a veteran in the hot corner. Escobar is a good fit. He’s not necessarily an everyday starter, so he can platoon with the Braves’ younger options at third.
2017 Teams: New York Yankees/Chicago White Sox/Houston Astros
Original Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates, 4 years, $28 million
Revised Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates, 2 years, $14 million
Clippard struggled last season with three different teams, so I do not think the Pirates will be willing to commit to a long term contract with Clippard. But I still think this is a good fit. The Pirates need more late inning relievers to support closer Felipe Rivero. Clippard may even be able to compete for the everyday closer job if he rebounds.
That’s all for this article. With some of the best free agents finally signed and Spring Training exhibition games around the corner, I will be posting more baseball articles soon, including my MLB Predictions, which will be out next week (I normally post them after the Super Bowl, but normally the Top free agents on the market are signed by then, so I had to wait until the market got going). I will also be posting my annual Ranking The Teams series, a detailed Red Sox Spring Training Preview, and a preseason Baseball Bits about new Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez. I will also be posting more March Madness and NFL off-season articles soon. Stay tuned.
Welcome to Part 1 of my 2018 MLB Free Agent and Trade Predictions. Free agency has been off to a slow start, but it’s far from over. Players like 1B Eric Hosmer, SP Jake Arrieta, SP Yu Darvish, and 3B Todd Frazier will eventually be signed. But where will they go? That’s the biggest question, and I’m about to try to answer it. Today I will be predicting landing spots for the MLB’s best pitchers on the market.
Photo Credit: ESPN (ESPN updates the player photos when players sign with new teams, so once the off-season is over, you will be able to check back and see how I did. It currently shows the player’s most recent team)
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles, 4 years, $92 million
It would be crazy if Arrieta returned to Baltimore, but I think he’s a great fit. The O’s have serious rotation problems. They lack depth and they need an ace, and this helps resolve both of those problems. But Arrieta won’t be able to fix the Orioles rotation alone. They’ll need to sign a 5th starter to complete the rotation behind Arrieta, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, and Mike Wright/Alec Asher.
Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 2 years, $19 million
After the retirement of Matt Cain and the departure of Matt Moore, the Giants need some depth in the rotation behind Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija. Cashner will help do that as the Giants try to rebound from a rough season where they finished last in the NL West. However, more starters might not be enough to get the Giants into the playoffs and continue their even year success.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 3 years, $42 million
There have been a lot of rumors about Cobb going to the Cubs, but I think the White Sox could also use an elite veteran starter as an influence for the younger guys. The White Sox could also use one more starter in case one of the younger guys struggles. I know the White Sox are in rebuild mode, but that doesn’t mean they can’t go out and sign a couple veterans to help their cause. That will be a theme throughout this series.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 years, $135 million
Darvish is another pitcher that the Cubs have been chasing after this off-season, and I do think they’ll pursue him. He will be Arrieta’s replacement in the rotation. But after playing the role of #2 starter on both Texas and LA last season behind Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw, respectively, can he step it up and become a reliable ace again?
Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 2 years, $17 million
Garza will also add depth to San Francisco’s rotation in an effort to bounce back from their rough season. With the additions of Cashner and Garza, their rotation will have a strong group of five veteran starters to guide the pitching staff.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals, 3 years, $33 million
After the departure of Lance Lynn and Mike Leake, the Cardinals will need another pitcher in the rotation. Alex Reyes should be in the rotation this year, but Jimenez will be the mid-rotation starter they need. As the Cardinals hope to return to the playoffs this year, they will need another veteran starter.
Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 2 years, $32 million
I still think Lackey has a couple more years left in the tank, and despite the fact that the Royals are trying to rebuild, I think they could use a veteran starter to top off the rotation. They have a lot of young talent in the lineup, but I don’t know if all their pitching prospects are major league ready yet. They might need a couple more years, and that’s where Lackey comes in.
Prediction: Miami Marlins, 2 years, $27 million
The Marlins need a couple more veteran starters to add to the depth of their rotation, even in rebuild mode. Lynn will help fill that role as well as Chris Tillman, who I also think will be signed by Miami.
Prediction: Miami Marlins, 3 years, $30 million
Tillman will also help add depth to the Miami rotation. Neither will get more than a few years though because by then, there will be more pitching prospects ready to join the rotation.
Prediction: San Diego Padres, 4 years, $62 million
The Padres could use a veteran influence in the rotation as well. Vargas had a career year last year, but can he repeat that? Either way, Vargas will be a leader in the Padres young rotation and he will be a role model for the younger starters on the rise.
Jesse Chavez (OAK, 3 years, $18 million)
R.A. Dickey (TEX, 2 years, $11 million)
Scott Feldman (TOR, 1 year, $7 million)
Jaime Garcia (NYY, 4 years, $26 million)
AJ Griffin (LAA, 1 year, $4.5 million)
Jeremy Hellickson (BAL, 2 years, $10 million)
Francisco Liriano (COL, 3 years, $24 million)
Wade Miley (TB, 3 years, $31.5 million)
Ricky Nolasco (MIN, 2 years, $15 million)
Hector Santiago (DET, 2 years, $17 million)
Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 2 years, $11 million
Blanton will add depth to the Indians bullpen. He will likely be their 7th inning guy or set up man if they sign him. They have signed Alexi Ogando and Evan Marshall to minor league deals, but in case those two don’t come through, I think the Indians will sign Blanton as a safe veteran option.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates, 4 years, $28 million
The Pirates have good depth in the bullpen, but they need a closer and set-up guys who can lead the bullpen. Will Clippard be able to handle the role of closer? That is what must be found out. Pittsburgh might need to go for another late-inning reliever to help him out. Maybe they’ll even resign set-up man Joaquin Benoit.
Prediction; Detroit Tigers, 1 year, $6 million
Grilli might be determined to keep pitching, but I doubt he was more than one or two more years left in the tank. I think Detroit will sign him as a closer until they find a younger replacement, which they will need as they enter rebuild mode.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $42.5 million
The Brewers are another team that could use a closer/late inning reliever, and Holland is a great fit in Milwaukee. Although they have been off to a slow start, expect the Brewers to be active buyers this off-season as they prepare to make a playoff run.
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels, 3 years, $19.5 million
Hoover will be the late-inning reliever the Angels need. He will assist others like Cam Bedrosian to finish off games. The Angels may want a top tier closer like Greg Holland, but the combination of Hoover and Bedrosian may just do the trick.
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds, 3 years, $16.5 million
After the departures of Drew Stanton (who I do think the Reds will also resign), Tony Cingrani, and J.J. Hoover, the Reds need depth in the bullpen and late-inning relievers to finish off the game. This is the year where the Reds could start contending, and Logan will help their case. He will be a part of their revised late-inning staff and add depth to the pen.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, 2 years, $8 million
The Phillies will sign Norris as a reliever, but knowing that he has started in the past, I wouldn’t rule out a role in the Phillies rotation for him. If they sign him, he will make the roster either as another starter or someone to add depth to the bullpen, but will he beat out the younger players and make the rotation?
Prediction: Atlanta Braves, 3 years, $18 million
The Braves could use a reliever to set the stage for closer Arodys Vizcaino, and that’s what Street would be here for. In general, the Braves could use some more veteran relievers to add depth to the bullpen so this signing will kill two birds with one stone.
My Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks, 4 years, $30 million
The D-Backs lost a couple of their veteran relievers to free agency and trades, and I just feel that Watson would fit in well in Arizona. Throughout the last couple of years, the Diamondbacks have lost J.J. Hoover, Evan Marshall, and David Hernandez. They already lacked depth in the bullpen with those guys on board, so they need it now more than ever.
Joaquin Benoit (PIT, 3 years, $20 million)
David Hernandez (ARZ, 2 years, $15 million)
Zach Putnam (CWS, 3 years, $22.5 million)
Addison Reed (BOS, 2 years, $14 million)
Drew Storen (CIN, 2 years, $17.5 million)
That’s all for Part 1 of my MLB Hot Stove predictions. Check back soon for Part 2, where I talk about catchers and infielders.
Welcome to the 5th and final day of my MLB preseason power rankings. We have finally made it to the top of the list. The most dominant teams are here. However, each of them had one Achilles Heel. That will be revealed today. Last time, we looked at some other contenders that had problems that were really holding them back. This time, the problems aren’t as big, and because of that, these 6 teams will dominate. Let’s get started with #6.
Now that the series is over, you will be able to view all the articles under the “Ranking The Teams” tag.
6. Cleveland Indians
The Indians had a very brief off-season, but the moves they did make made a big impact. They signed Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, and Boone Logan. Each of these players will help the team in a different way. Jackson is a veteran mentor in the outfield that will rotate with the younger players. His bat will be helpful for the Indians. Edwin Encarnacion will play DH or first base, and his big bat will lead the Indians lineup. Logan will be a late inning reliever and helps this bullpen’s depth. These moves make the Indians look better than before and give them that last little push that makes them AL Central favorites.
The Case for the Indians
The Indians are in store for another strong season. Despite small holes, the Indians’ lineup is looking better than before. With Michael Brantley healthy, they could kick but. The rotation’s top three will still kick butt, but there are problems in the 4 and 5 spots. Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin aren’t the greatest options out there. The Indians have always had bullpen depth issues as well, but helped resolve them by signing Boone Logan and claiming Tim Cooney off waivers. The Indians made some big moves this off-season and will hope that leads to a bigger season.
The Achilles Heel
It’s hard to point out one singular Achilles Heel for the Indians. The problems they have are all pretty small, but all together, they cause bigger problems. If there was one clear weakness on this team to point out, it would probably be the outfield. The rotation and bullpen aren’t that bad and have gotten better in recent years. Most of the lineup is good, but the outfield could be a problem. Michael Brantley should be good to go, but there aren’t many significant players around him. This wouldn’t be a problem if Brantley was 100%. But the Indians don’t have a good outfielder fully healthy. Austin Jackson is getting older, and the Indians don’t have another significant outfielder to fill the last slot. The last slot will have to be filled by players who aren’t quite ready yet. The choices are limited.
Best Case Scenario: The rotation thrives and a strong lineup leads the Indians back to the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: The rotation struggles and the lineup can’t really do that much better as the Indians fail to win the AL Central.
Projected Finish: 92-70, 1st in AL Central
5. Boston Red Sox
Much like the Indians, the Red Sox had a very brief off-season but made the most of the moves they made. With Big Papi retired, the Red Sox added Mitch Moreland to preserve the dominant status of their lineup. They also traded away Yoan Moncada and three other prospects to the White Sox but got ace Chris Sale in return. Lastly, they traded Travis Shaw away for Tyler Thornburg. Hopefully, a slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval will fill Shaw’s role. Now, the lineup, rotation, and bullpen are better.
The Case for the Red Sox
The Red Sox are my team, so it’s hard not to be biased, but this is a very talented team. The rotation is one of the best in the league now, led by three ace level pitchers who are all Cy Young candidates. The lineup is still overpowered even without Big Papi, and if the back of the rotation struggles, the bullpen is improved as well. This is a strong all-around team but could they have a weak spot?
The Achilles Heel
Yes, even teams like this have an Achilles Heel. Without David Ortiz, there is a strain put on the lineup. Travis Shaw and Aaron Hill are also gone. Hanley Ramirez will move to DH. Mitch Moreland will fill in at first. But who plays third? Pablo Sandoval has not proved himself worthy since he joined the Red Sox. Maybe now that he lost some weight, he will have a bounce back year. But it is pretty risky putting him in the full-time starting job at third.
Best Case Scenario: The lineup continues to do well, the rotation kicks butt, and the Red Sox win their fourth World Series since breaking the curse.
Worst Case Scenario: The lineup struggles without Big Papi, the rotation can’t find a rhythm, and the Red Sox struggle to make the playoffs.
Projected Finish: 92-70, 1st in AL East
4. St. Louis Cardinals
Like many good teams, the Cardinals didn’t go all out this off-season but made a couple bold moves to improve. They got the Cubs back and picked up Dexter Fowler, who will be a leader in a young outfield. Now there’s competition in a tight NL Central. They also signed Brett Cecil to add to a strong bullpen. The Cardinals are in good shape.
The Case for the Cardinals
The Cardinals couldn’t compete with the Cubs in 2016, but they have gained on the Cubs. The addition of Dexter Fowler has helped. The bullpen is also better. The rotation should improve most of all. Lance Lynn is coming back, and I could see Mike Leake bouncing back. That fills a strong rotation that will help lead the Cardinals. The lineup is also better and after this off-season’s changes, the Cardinals will compete with the Cubs.
The Achilles Heel
The one problem with this team is that there’s too much pressure on the young guys to do well. Consistency is tough for young players, and parts of their lineup include younger players like Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk. and Aldemys Diaz. You never know with these younger players. Until players reach their prime, it’s hard to foresee how they will do. That’s where the Cardinals are at, and they’ve been facing that problem since they decided to let their younger players take over.
Best Case Scenario: The rotation dominates, the lineup looks better and the Cardinals win the NL Central with ease.
Worst Case Scenario: The young team is inconsistent and struggles, leading them to miss the playoffs for a second straight year.
Projected Finish: 93-69, 2nd in NL Central
3. Washington Nationals
Unlike most good teams, the Nationals were super busy this off-season. They got two new catchers, Derek Norris and Matt Wieters. They also signed Adam Lind and traded Lucas Giolito to Chicago for Adam Eaton. They also upgraded their bullpen, signing several guys including Joe Nathan. Will these moves be enough to finally win the Nats a World Series?
The Case for the Nationals
The Nationals are in good shape for 2017. The rotation still looks pretty good and is led by the best duo of starters in the league. The bullpen did have depth issues, but after this off-season, that shouldn’t be a problem. The lineup is also looking a little bit better after an active off-season. There could be a hole at shortstop if Trea Turner can’t play there, but Turner is the likely starter. The Nats are looking better in 2017 and could run for a championship.
The Achilles Heel
The one problem with this team is the infield. When Danny Espinosa left for LA, he left a hole. Now, there are questions remaining. Can Trea Turner adjust smoothly? How will the lineup and infield fare without Espinosa? Those questions must be answered, and if the Nats can say “yes” and “good” to those questions, they will do very well.
Best Case Scenario: The lineup looks better, the pitching dominates the league, and the Nationals go on to win the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: The off-season’s lineup changes don’t work out, the rotation fails to stay healthy and the Nats fail to win the NL East.
Projected Finish: 93-69, 1st in NL East
2. Texas Rangers
The Rangers are looking good after their off-season moves. I know a lot of people think they’ll flop, but this team can be dominant, I can’t see them missing the playoffs. They improved their rotation. They signed former Padres pitchers Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross to add to a strong top of the rotation. The bullpen isn’t as good after losing Shawn Tolleson. The Rangers also signed James Loney and Mike Napoli to fill the gaps that Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland left. They also resigned most of their key free agents, which preserved most of what they had last year.
The Case for the Rangers
This team is better than it looks. You may think this lineup is getting older, but young stars are actually taking up a good part of it. The lineup will dominate. Meanwhile, the rotation has continued to improve. After boosting the top of the rotation the last two years, they signed two more starters to fill out the rest of the rotation with Derek Holland gone. The bullpen is looking better, but does it still need work.
The Achilles Heel
If you think that the lineup is the problem, you’re wrong. The rotation isn’t perfect. It can’t do everything. The weak bullpen will be a problem. It’s lacking depth, which can’t happen when the rotation is not completely solid. This isn’t the best rotation in the MLB. They can’t do the whole pitching job, and until they find some bullpen help in Texas, the pitching staff’s depth problems will be the Rangers Achilles Heel.
Best Case Scenario: The rotation is solid, the lineup is dominant, and the Rangers find themselves in the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: The pitching staff holds the Rangers back, the lineup declines, and the Rangers are led to finish 3rd in the AL West.
Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st in AL West
1. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs did lose Jason Hammel, but they improved their depth in the rotation and bullpen. They signed Brett Anderson and claimed Eddie Butler of waivers to help their rotation. In order to upgrade the bullpen, they also signed Koji Uehara and traded away Jorge Soler for closer Wade Davis. In addition, with Dexter Fowler leaving they signed Jon Jay. The Cubs are looking like World Series contenders for the third year in a row, can they make what they have into a dynasty for years to come?
The Case for the Cubs
The lineup here is looking as good as last year. The fifth spot in the rotation could be a problem, but this team has so many bullpen options, and a few of them could compete for that 5th starting job. This team looks ready to dominate again in 2017. Their depth everywhere else isn’t as good as last year, but the lineup is solid, the rotation could be great, and the bullpen will help fill in the pitching’s holes.
The Achilles Heel
For such a perfect team, it’s hard to find an Achilles Heel without nitpicking. There is one problem, though. The lineup should be fine, but despite good options in the bullpen, if the Cubs don’t have a solid 5th starter, then the bullpen will start to get overtired, and this will cause widespread pitching staff issues. These problems will only occur if the rest of the rotation can’t pitch a lot of innings and the 5th spot isn’t filled well., which may or may not happen. This team is spotless for the most part.
Best Case Scenario: The lineup is at its best, the rotation dominates, and the Cubs are a lasting championship winning dynasty in years to come.
Worst Case Scenario: The rotation is problematic, depth of the lineup becomes a problem, and the Cubs lose in the ALDS.
Projected Finish: 96-66, 1st in NL Central
That’s it for my preseason power rankings. Hope you enjoyed it. Comment with your feedback and predictions. Now, the first Baseball Bits of 2017 is coming soon, and be on the lookout for a Red Sox spring training article.
The Super Bowl is in the books, and spring training is around the corner. It’s time to take a look at what’s in store for this baseball season. As Bryce Harper stated in 2016, he wants baseball to be fun again. Well, 2017 will bring that, and I’ll tell you how. There will be competition, players will have better seasons, and the MLB will just be a little bit more interesting. Who will win it all? Keep reading to find out.
Boston Red Sox 92-70
Toronto Blue Jays 88-74
New York Yankees 87-75
Baltimore Orioles 80-82
Tampa Bay Rays 69-93
The Red Sox did lose David Ortiz, but they got Chris Sale in the off-season, and after this off season, the rotation looks better, the bullpen is alright, and their lineup is still good. The Blue Jays are still going to be good, but after the loss of Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders, they won’t be a playoff team. Despite signing Kendrys Morales, this team doesn’t include a true superstar. The Yankees went young and are looking better, but it will take time for them to return to the playoffs. The Orioles rotation is falling apart again, and the Matt Wieters-less lineup isn’t enough. Meanwhile, the Rays won’t get much better. Despite a good rotation, they need big hitters to compete in the East.
Cleveland Indians 92-70
Detroit Tigers 89-73
Kansas City Royals 81-81
Chicago White Sox 78-84
Minnesota Twins 63-99
The Indians signed Edwin Encarnacion and will definitely stay on top because of that. But what else did they do this off season? Not much, that will hurt them in the playoffs. The Tigers and Royals didn’t do much either, but one or both of them could have a bounce back seasons. It won’t be enough to Top Cleveland though. The White Sox are depending on young talent, which isn’t a safe bet, and the Twins are still in the middle of a treacherous rebuild.
Texas Rangers 94-68
Houston Astros 91-71
Seattle Mariners 86-76
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 76-86
Oakland Athletics 65-97
I don’t know why people are saying the Rangers are going to miss the playoffs. Their lineup is almost as good as last year. Despite losing Mitch Moreland and Ian Desmond, Josh Hamilton is working his way back and Jurickson Profar may contribute more in 2017. The rotation is just as good if not better. The Astros could also be a significant contender, with a better lineup and bullpen. The Mariners and Angels also made some good moves and they both have gotten better overall. However, neither team is quite fit to contend yet. Meanwhile, the Athletics are in a rebuild and will not contend either.
Washington Nationals 93-69
New York Mets 90-72
Miami Marlins 87-75
Atlanta Braves 67-95
Philadelphia Phillies 65-97
The Nationals haven’t really done much this off-season, but they really haven’t lost much, and with a little fine-tuning, they could be as good as they have been. The Mets should also be playoff material as they’ve put together a good lineup and still have one of the best rotations in the league. The Marlins have also improved. They have a good young lineup and the rotation has a lot of depth. Although Jose Fernandez passed away, they added Jeff Locke and Edinson Volquez to maintain strength in their rotation. Meanwhile, the Braves have a nice balance of old and young, but it will take a couple of years for them to rebuild. Same with the Phillies. Neither team will compete this year, but they are making smart moves for their future.
Chicago Cubs 96-66
St. Louis Cardinals 93-69
Pittsburgh Pirates 85-77
Cincinnati Reds 74-88
Milwaukee Brewers 72-90
The Cubs made some nice finishing touches in the off-season, and despite losing Jason Hammel, their lineup’s still good, and they will still be a World Series contender. The Cardinals should compete though. Their lineup lacks a true star, but young talent should help them improve, along with new outfielder Dexter Fowler. Their rotation is also looking a lot better for 2017 with Lance Lynn returning. The Pirates lack a good rotation although their lineup is still good. But without good pitching they will not be a playoff team. The Reds are going to be alright but need to trade away the older guys and rebuild if they want any chance at a pennant in the near future, and the Brewers are already rebuilding. For them, it will take a couple of years to be able to contend again.
Los Angeles Dodgers 90-72
San Francisco Giants 88-74
Colorado Rockies 85-77
Arizona Diamondbacks 79-83
San Diego Padres 63-99
The NL West will be a tight division with no clear leader. The Dodgers are the favorites, but they have flaws, in the bullpen and in the lineup. For the Giants, it’s an odd year. The rotation looks good, but the lineup could struggle. That gives the Rockies the chance to sneak into contention. They have a powerful lineup and they play in a place where you need that. Their rotation needs some work, but with a veteran mentor, the young rotation will look a lot better and the Rockies could contend. They are one team that will help make baseball fun again, along with other teams like the Marlins, Astros, Mariners, Angels and Yankees to name a few. Their unique experimental style is making the game interesting. Signing a guy like Jason Hammel, Jered Weaver or Doug Fister may help. The D-Backs are a young team that I expect to improve in 2017. In a few years, they could contend. Meanwhile, the Padres are just, the Padres. They’ve hit rock bottom in a horrific rebuild and may have one of their worst seasons ever. Signing veterans short term back then didn’t work out, and it’s causing bigger problems now.
2017 MLB Playoffs
In the NL, the Cardinals will be a lot better. They will challenge the Cubs for the throne. Once the Cubs win that series though, they’ll have an easy path to the World Series, as the Nats, Mets and Dodgers are nowhere near as good as the NL Central rivals. In the World Series, I think the Cubs will be the favorite, but the best team doesn’t always win the World Series, and the Cubs won’t repeat. Instead, the Astros will surprise the Cubs, and their young talent will be enough to beat the Cubs. The Cubs are a good young team, but the Astros have more young talent, and that will help them win the World Series.
By the way, I actually have the Dodgers winning the world series, but I wanted to show my Red Sox fandom on my Animoto account.
Alright, let’s dig in.
Boston Red Sox 92-70
Toronto Blue Jays 89-73
New York Yankees 85-77
Tampa Bay Rays 83-79
Baltimore Orioles 74-88
I have the Red Sox bouncing back from an ugly season and going from worst to first once again. The Red Sox were even bolder than they were last off season, acquiring Craig Kimbrel from the Padres, despite giving up former #3 and #7 prospects Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra. Then they signed AL Cy Young runner up David Price to a seven year, 217 million dollar deal. They also signed Chris Young to a two year deal and traded Wade Miley for relievers Roenis Elias and Carson Smith. They now have a strong rotation front and a top closer, along with the powerful lineup the 2015 Red Sox provided.
Meanwhile I think the Blue Jays will stay strong even without their 2015 ace and closer (David Price & LaTroy Hawkins). They still have a strong lineup and some amazing prospects, and they acquired some new starters like J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez, plus closer/set-up man Drew Storen. I think they still have some playoff relevance.
The Yankees meanwhile have done majority of their moves via trade. They acquired Starlin Castro for Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan, plus star closer Aroldis Chapman from Cincy. Having Chapman in New York will heat up the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry as the Sox acquired Kimbrel. The Yanks should be competitive in the division.
The Rays upgraded their pretty empty offense with Logan Morrison and Brad Miller. Centerfielder Desmond Jennings also will return from injury this season. Alex Cobb will also return. I think the Rays are still a little washed up in their lineup, but they have good defense and pitching.
Meanwhile I don’t think the Orioles’ acquistions are efficient. Mark Trumbo is not a full time starter, Hyun-Soo Kim might not be as good in America, and they still have a serious hole in the rotation. They already had a pretty bad team last year, they just made it a lot worse. The Orioles are by far the worst team in this division. Besides maybe the Rays, every other team in this division will still be in the playoff race at the beginning of September.
Detroit Tigers 93-69
Chicago White Sox 89-73
Kansas City Royals 89-73
Minnesota Twins 73-89
Cleveland Indians 68-94
This division’s teams have made many impact transactions but not every team that made an impact in free agency can do well, especially all in the same division.
The Tigers have really improved their pitching game and outfield to match the rest of their good teams. They signed Justin Upton, Mark Lowe, Mike Pelfrey and Jordan Zimmermann and have acquired Cameron Maybin and Justin Wilson via trade. They only gave up Ian Krol to trade and Alfredo Simon and Rajai Davis to free agency. Even after a bad season, I think that the top prospects and star players will combine to make a bad team in 2015 a great, powerful team that will make an impact in 2016.
Meanwhile the White Sox have also been very active in the hot stove. They’ve revamped their infield by trading for both Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie. Lawrie was a third baseman like Frazier but will play at second to make room for Todd Frazier. They still have a hole at shortstop though.
The Royals are still good, but are once again lacking a rotation. They also have a hole in the outfield unless Jarrod Dyson can step it up. So, they’ll compete, but they aren’t necessarily make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, I don’t think the Twins’ youth plus Byung-Ho Park is enough to bring a good season in the Twin Cities. The Indians haven’t done enough by getting Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis. So there are teams in the Central that aren’t competitive as well.
Texas Rangers 90-72
Seattle Mariners 87-75
Houston Astros 79-83
Oakland Athletics 78-84
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 71-91
I have the Texas Rangers at the top of this division. Look at their rotation. Personally, I think that both Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish are serious Cy Young candidates. The two ace-like pitchers are joined by wing man Derek Holland. They also have a powerful lineup with some guys like Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder who have a ton of potential.
The Mariners also made a lot of impact trades. Despite giving up Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, Roenis Elias and Carson Smith, they traded for Wade Miley, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Aro, Nathan Karns, Adam Lind, Leonys Martin and Luis Sardinas. They also signed closer Steve Cishek, outfielder Norichika Aoki and resigned King Felix’s trusty wing-man, Hisashi Iwakuma. So this is a pretty revamped team.
The Astros are also still a somewhat powerful, young team. Guys like Carlos Correa really stepped it up last year, and they signed some strong veterans like Doug Fister. Some veterans, like Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez, are also playing their first full season in Houston and others like Brad Peacock are returning from injury this year. The Astros have a lot of potential but aren’t quite as good as the Mariners and Rangers.
There are teams worse than that though. The Athletics made some minor moves as usual, and they’ve recovered from some injuries to players, so they will be better, just not enough to make an impact. Jarrod Parker returns from Tommy John surgery, and hopefully the former star Coco Crisp can bounce back.
The Los Angeles Angels also will get C.J. Wilson back, but this team is in need of some serious luck. Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava must create an efficient platoon in left, the rotation is full of people who are either feast or famine or fresh off a breakout, and they still have serious problems at second.
So the AL West is competitive, but there is a wide division between the good teams, decent teams and bad teams.
Washington Nationals 93-69
New York Mets 87-75
Miami Marlins 77-85
Philadelphia Phillies 75-87
Atlanta Braves 66-96
The Nationals continue to improve their team. They got solid second baseman Daniel Murphy. They also got Ben Revere for their second unneeded closer Drew Storen. The Jays did need him. They already had a good team, now they have a great and healthy one built off Bryce Harper and star pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer.
The Mets also resigned Yoenis Cespedes and signed Asdrubal Cabrera for the first time. They additionally traded for Neil Walker. They have a strong rotation but still lack power in their lineup. They should be good, but not necessarily a playoff contender as there are much better wild card candidates in the NL.
The Marlins also have improved their pitching to match the lineup they revamped in 2015. But some of the guys like shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, utility Derek Dietrich and first baseman Justin Bour are still developing. At least they have Martin Prado and Don Kelly in the infield, and a pretty powerful, but somewhat old outfield.
The Phillies have gotten better as well. They’ve really improved their rotation, including the acquisition of veterans Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Brett Oberholtzer and Vincent Velasquez. Bobby LaFramboise, Jerad Eickhoff, Luis Garcia and Jeanmar Gomez will lead the bullpen. They also have acquired Peter Bourjos to join Odubel Herrera and Cody Asche in the outfield. They have a stronger, more developed lineup and rotation, but still aren’t above .500 material.
Meanwhile, the Braves are much worse. They have some serious holes in the infield, despite acquiring Erick Aybar. Their pitching is worse, even more devastated despite signing minor league players Kyle Kendrick, Alexi Ogando and David Holmberg.
Chicago Cubs 96-66
St. Louis Cardinals 91-71
Pittsburgh Pirates 88-74
Cincinnati Reds 79-83
Milwaukee Brewers 65-97
The Cubs already had a good team last year with Kris Bryant and some other dominant young stars making it to the majors. This off season, the really stacked up. They already had Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, they inked John Lackey to a deal too. Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward also got deals in Chicago. This team now looks to be one of the most powerful MLB teams while still having a starting lineup that’s almost 50% MLB rookies or sophomores.
The Cardinals still have power in the division, but were fed on just like the 2014-15 Tigers were fed on by the Nationals. What I mean is that without any trades, one team is taking a lot of the Cardinals’ top 2015 free agents, that team is their division rival the Cubs. Their rotation is shorthanded without Lance Lynn and there outfield will miss Jason Heyward, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos. Even Matt Holliday will hit free agency next season. However they have picked up Jedd Gyorko and Seung-Hwan Oh, and got some good insurance in Brandon Moss and Jonathan Broxton at the 2015 trade deadline. They also could still sign a big bat like Dexter Fowler, Austin Jackson or Ian Desmond.
The Pirates are clearly at loss after losing Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez, but with A.J. Burnett retiring, they stacked up on some pitchers. They acquired Jon Niese, A.J. Schugel and Kyle Lobstein, and signed Ryan Vogelsong. yet they still have thriving prospect Tyler Glasnow. Man, their pitching staff is stacked. They additionally signed slugger John Jaso. But in the end, compared to the Cards and Cubs, they aren’t too good.
The Reds even have some potential. I see potential in this rotation. Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen is who I think will make up the rotation. They could also sign a veteran like Tim Lincecum and let Finnegan or Lorenzen rest after Bailey’s return from Tommy John surgery. If not, Keyvius Sampson or John Lamb will have to start until then, unless Robert Stephenson is in the Opening Day rotation. This team also has some serious holes, and needs some better hitting from Billy Hamilton, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips. They desperately need a third baseman and an outfielder, and may have a ton of last minute signings if they don’t want to suck. Hey, maybe Scott Schebler takes the outfield, Jose Peraza platoons at third with Ivan DeJesus efficiently, and Homer Bailey comes back early and shines. Or they snag the older guys like Juan Uribe last minute.
The Brewers don’t look any better. Right now, Matt Garza and Wilin Peralta are their best pitchers, Will Smith is their closer, and they need some serious help in certain other positions. What are they going to do? Suck is what.
Los Angeles Dodgers 94-68
San Diego Padres 91-71
Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
San Francisco Giants 84-78
Colorado Rockies 67-95
This division may surprise you a lot. The Giants put so much money into this off season, and they only go 84-78. The Padres have the season they were expecting a year ago. The D-Backs and Giants both miss the playoffs and are short of a 90-win season after acquiring or signing a combined four top 50 pitchers in the MLB, two apiece. The Dodgers still rule the division after all that drama. Finally, despite a strong rebuild, the Rockies still suck.
The Dodgers however also acquired some good pitchers in Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy will also return this season. They have a secure lineup with very few holes and a strong rotation.
But what happened to the even year luck in San Francisco? Pablo Sandoval brought it to Boston. Oh well, Giants, all that hard work and my Red Sox still get all the glory, with little to pay up at all.
The D-Backs are also looking better but do you honestly think they can win a division title with the lineup they have? Not happening.
MLB 2016 Postseason
Okay, okay, I might be getting a little carried away with the Padres doing so well, because the Cubs wouldn’t lose to them likely. Well here’s something I’ll throw at you, even though I have the Dodgers winning the World Series, I nearly considered the Nats to beat them in the NLDS. Bryce Harper is primed for a bigger breakout than even last year’s. I know I always overrate the Nats, and again, I could be wrong with the Nats even making the playoffs. The Mets could take their spot or San Diego’s. You may have actually noticed that I had the Sox over LA in the Animoto video, I was just showing my Red Sox fandom. But lets be honest here, the Dodgers rotation is by far better than the Red Sox’s. They also have a slight edge with their outfield.
Alright, now the AL. Again, I may be exaggerating with the White Sox, I did say the Tigers are ready to bounce back. Now I don’t have them winning a single playoff game. That’s up for debate. But especially if Chicago signs Ian Desmond, think about it. Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie, Ian Desmond and Todd Frazier all in one infield. Not bad. I see potential for both sides. Again, Red Sox-Rangers could also be debatable, I just believe the Sox have a slight edge in the match-up and will simply win 3-2 in the ALDS. Besides that, I think I agree with my original instinct. What do you think?
Now its time to make my predictions for some MLB Awards in 2016.
Jose Bautista, RF, Blue Jays
This is just going to make Bautista way more valuable. Well, what’s my case? Bautista was injured for a good amount of 2015, and played through some of it. He had unsatisfactory results for much of the season. But 2016 is the year for Jose Bautista to bounce back. He didn’t have terrible results last year, but he definitely has room for improvement. When he gets heated up, he reaches MVP level.
Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Michael Brantley, Carlos Beltran, Xander Bogaerts
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
I almost considered Joey Votto for MVP, but I just think that his team won’t support his relevance well enough. But Harper, he’s ready to dominate. Harper is fresh off a breakout season, and the 23-year old superstar is ready for another one. I also have him winning a very special award, which I’ll surprise you with at the end.
Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Giancarlo Stanton, Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Heyward
AL Cy Young Award
David Price, Red Sox
Price has a seven year deal with the Red Sox, so he’s pressured to do amazing. Besides, there aren’t many other good choices. Cole Hamels, maybe Dallas Keuchel. Guys like that don’t match up to Price at his best, which he wasn’t last year. I don’t think Detroit was the right fit for Price. Boston or Toronto, that’s another story. Price is ready to dominate this year.
Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Chris Archer, Yu Darvish
NL Cy Young Award
James Shields, Padres
You might say Jake Arrieta, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke or Clayton Kershaw will win the NL Cy Young, but where’s the love for James Shields? Especially if the Padres have their long-awaited breakout year, Shields will be a legitimate competitor for the Cy Young. He put up stellar stats for the Royals, he just hasn’t really fit in to the Padres’ system, but I think he’s found a spot as their ace. He is ready to go back to all star form after only a subpar 2015.
Zack Greinke, Kenta Maeda, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie Of The Year
Byron Buxton, OF, Twins
I’m not as big of a believer in Buxton as most people, but look at the other options in the AL. Byung-Ho Park is typically someone who would be too old to typically be a ro0kie. But Buxton really is a prospect, he’s a typical rookie, he plays like a young rookie. He’s actually one of the best at it in the AL, and I admire that. Plus, I have some serious issues underrating Buxton.
Byung-Ho Park, Sean Nolin, Blake Snell, Gary Sanchez, Dylan Bundy
NL Rookie Of The Year
Corey Seager, SS/3B, Dodgers
Unlike Buxton, I see off the charts potential for this guy. He’s the younger brother of a star third baseman in the league, and he proved himself byputting up great numbers while playing in the majors for the end of last season. There has been so much hype for this kid and I believe it. If there was one Rookie Of The Year for all of the MLB, it would be Seager all the way.
Steven Matz, Tyler Glasnow, Trayce Thompson, Jose Peraza
AL Comeback Player Of The Year
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers
Darvish has spent nearly two full seasons on the DL. Two years before even that, he was a great new MLB pitcher fresh out of Japan’s best bunch. Darvish put up outstanding stats in 2012 and 2013. I know he’ll never be able to do that again, he’s too old and crippled, but can he at least return to All Star form? I am a firm believer in Darvish and I’d like to see him try.
Justin Verlander, Pablo Sandoval, Jarrod Parker, Desmond Jennings
NL Comeback Player Of The Year
Matt Kemp, OF, Padres
Kemp was a superstar with the Dodgers. He’s old, but if he can do the same in San Diego, that would greatly benefit them. Right now, he’s just a washed up outfielder forced to start. But as the season progresses, I think he has potential to put up some all star stats.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy, Jon Niese, Travis Wood, Bartolo Colon
Triple Crown Award (NL)
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
This is the big surprise we’ve been waiting for. Surprise, surprise, we have a Triple Crown winner! Guess who it is? Red hot, young Bryce Harper, already claiming the NL MVP. Harper is fresh of a long-awaited breakout and is ready to become an all time great in the MLB. A Triple Crown would really help his relevance, and I think he’s good enough to snag it at only age 23.
So that’s all for my MLB 2016 Preview. Comment with your thoughts.