Errors, Lack of Hitting Cause Sox to Lose

The Red Sox lost their streak and their momentum with a 3-0 loss last night.  Rick Porcello actually pitched really well, with 0 earned runs.  It was errors that allowed the Blue Jays to score.


Pablo Sandoval had an error again.  Even Gold Glove winner Mitch Moreland had an error in addition to going 0-4 after hitting really well during the winning streak.  The 2nd inning was when the Jays scored all their runs.  The two errors happened back to back at the start of the 2nd inning and all of the sudden it was 2nd and 3rd.  After Justin Smoak struck out, Darwin Barney got a base hit that knocked both of them in.  2-0 Jays.  Kevin Pillar singled to make it first and second.  Then Ezequiel Carrera hit a single down the line for a third run.  It was 3-0 Jays, but Porcello didn’t have a single earned run.  


It was pretty quiet after that, and pitching was pretty good.  But the Red Sox also blew several scoring opportunities.  In the 5th, Sandy Leon grounded into a double play with 1st and 2nd.  Hanley Ramirez did the same thing in the 6th!  Instead of 2 innings in a row where they successfully scored, there were 2 innings in a row of blown opportunities.  

Both starting pitchers, Rick Porcello and Francisco Liriano had amazing games.  Neither gave up any earned runs, Liriano gave up just 4 hits in 5.1 innings, and Porcello gave up just 6 hits in 7 innings.  

I was expecting the defense to back up Porcello but Porcello did fine.  The defense was the problem.  Hopefully, Porcello’s good pitching will combine with good defense for a win the next time he starts.  


The Blue Jays ended up winning, 3-0.  Unfortunately, Liriano got the win, and Porcello got the loss despite a great pitcher’s duel that was ruined by errors.  


Chris Sale starts in today’s game at 12:30.  Will the Red Sox win their 5th out of the last 6 and take this series, or will the Blue Jays surprise them again and win?  

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Baseball Bits #5: Porcello Struggling, Is This Typical of First Time Cy Young Winners?

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Rick Porcello did not look good in his start on Friday.  He did not even make it out the 5th inning, pitching only 4.1 innings and giving up 8 earned runs.  This is disappointing because Porcello just won the Cy Young and we were expecting a good year.  Is it the pressure on him that’s causing him to struggle?  There was a lot of pressure on him in 2015 as a new member of the Red Sox and he struggled.  That might be the problem with all the first-year Red Sox pitchers.  On the Sox, the expectations are high and the pressure is on because the team spent has spent a lot of money on this roster.  I thought the pressure was all on Sale this year but Porcello is under pressure as well.


Porcello looked spotless last year though when the pressure was not on him as much.  He won the Cy Young.  But is it typical of a first time Cy Young winner to thrive the next year?  That gave me an idea for more research.  The question is, how many of the first-time Cy Young winners improved their ERA the next year?  I also researched how many had an ERA under 3.25 the next year: here are the results dating back to 1956, when the award was founded.
The Research



Prior to 1967, there was only one Cy Young winner for the entire MLB.


The “Baseball Bits”

  •  Only 18 players (13 AL, 3 NL, 2 when only one MLB pitcher won) of the 75 first time winners had an ERA over 4.00 the next year (just 24%!).
    • Only 2 (Mark Davis and Bartolo Colon) had an ERA over 5.00 the following year
  • Only 6 players (1 AL, 2 NL, 3 when only one MLB pitcher won) of 75 first time winners have ever improved their ERA after winning their first Cy Young (just 8%!). They were:
    • Tim Lincecum (2008, improved from 2.62 to 2.48)
    • C.C. Sabathia (2007, improved from 3.21 to 2.70)
    • Brandon Webb (2006, improved from 3.10 to 3.01)
    • Sandy Koufax (1963, improved from 1.88 to 1.74)
    • Don Drysdale (1962, improved from 2.83 to 2.63)
    • Whitey Ford (1961, improved from 3.21 to 2.90)
  • 38 players (12 AL, 21 NL, 5 when only one MLB pitcher won) have held their ERA under 3.25 the next year. That’s 54.3% of the 70 players who were first-time winners that won with an ERA under 3.25
  • The last pitcher to have an ERA under 3.25 after their first Cy Young was Jake Arrieta in 2015
  • Not including Porcello, 2 of the first time Cy Young winners were on the Red Sox (Jim Lonborg and Roger Clemens). Lonborg was one of the 18 over 4.00, with an ERA of 4.29. But Clemens had an ERA of 2.97 the next year, which was not an improvement but was under 3.25.
  • No player has improved their ERA after their first time Cy Young year since 2008 when Tim Lincecum did it. The last time it happened in the AL was in 2007 when C.C. Sabathia did it.
  • The Cy Young was won 30 times by a multiple time winner. However, only 13 people have ever won the Cy Young multiple times.  That means that some of the 13 have won more than twice
  • No pitcher with an ERA over 3.25 when they won improved their ERA after their first Cy Young
  • If Rick Porcello turns it around and improves his ERA from last year, he would be the first first-time Cy Young winner on the Red Sox to do it. Right now that seems unlikely based on how he pitched on Friday.

The Verdict

Based on this research I would not expect Porcello to improve his ERA from last year, especially after his horrid Friday night performance.  But it is possible that his ERA will stay under 3.25.  That will be hard to do.  He put up an ERA of 3.15 last year when he won the Cy Young.  But it is possible.  Is Porcello at the level of those 38 pitchers who did keep their ERA under 3.25?  Maybe not when he’s under pressure because he has stunk under pressure.

Trading for Chris Sale helped strengthen the Red Sox rotation and you would think that would get the pressure off Porcello.  Maybe by winning the Cy Young Porcello has put more pressure on himself, especially now that David Price is injured.  With Chris Sale and David Price (who will be back in June) also in the rotation and Pomeranz doing well, the Red Sox should be able to allow Porcello time to adjust.  I think there’s a chance that we can see the kind of numbers we saw from him in 2016.  I don’t think his 22 wins will be repeated but I think his numbers can be at least respectable if he makes the adjustments necessary.

The research shows that most Cy Young first-time winners keep an ERA under 4.00 (76%).  I believe that Porcello can be part of this 76% because the Sox are one of the best defensive teams in the league and they should help steal a few hits and runs.

Stay tuned for my next Baseball Bits, where I will look at how top home run hitters impact their teams.  Thanks for reading.

Benintendi, Porcello Lead Sox to Opening Day Victory


The Red Sox won again on Opening Day.  They topped the Pirates 5-3.  The Red Sox were powered by stellar pitching from Rick Porcello and a 5th inning rally started by a JBJ triple with two outs.  He nailed it into the right corner and speeded around the bases.  Pablo Sandoval went on to drive him in, and by the time Benintendi walked up to the plate, it was 1st and 2nd and the Red Sox had a 2-0 lead. Then, Benintendi nailed a homer into the right field corner, giving the Red Sox a 5-0 lead in the 5th inning.  

Early on, it was a pitchers duel.  In the first 4 innings, Gerrit Cole gave up just 1 hit and struck out 2.  Rick Porcello gave up just 3 hits and struck out 5 in the first 6 innings.  He was backed up by some great defense by JBJ and Andrew Benintendi.  After the 5th inning rally, the Red Sox slipped up a little bit, but recovered.  However, in the 7th inning, the Pirates got back into the game.  

With David Freese on first, Francisco Cervelli crushed a double into left field.  Then soon after Josh Harrison drove David Freese in.  With that, Porcello left the game while it was still going well.  He was credited with a quality start.  Then Matt Barnes came in.  But the rally continued with another RBI single, followed by a walk and a sac fly.  It was now 5-3.  After the 7th inning, the pitchers began to thrive again.  The rest of the relievers that came in during the 7th and 8th were doing well.  Then Kimbrel came in for the Sox in the top of the 9th.  Despite letting the Pirates get away with 1st and 2nd, Kimbrel earned the save.  


The Red Sox won again on Opening Day.  They return to action on Wednesday night, as Chris Sale debuts.  

Red Sox Stay Hot, Crush Tigers

The Red Sox got a big win over the Detroit Tigers last night, blowing them out 10-2.  Rick Porcello went 7 strong innings while Hanley and Pedey stayed hot and David Ortiz and JBJ jacked homers.

The Red Sox started off the game with a 4 run, 2 dinger 1st inning.  Xander Bogaerts showed signs of overcoming his slump as he started off the game with a base hit after Pedroia grounded out to second.  Then David Ortiz crushed the ball high into right field.  It was long gone, a no-doubter.  Then after Betts flew out to right, Hanley Ramirez stayed hot since returning to the club  with another base hit.  JBJ then blasted one in the same direction as Ortiz’s for the 2nd HR of the inning.   Red Sox took a 4-0 lead to start the game, very assuring after collapsing in the first game of the series.

But the Tigers struck back in the 2nd and took advantage of Porcello’s weakness from 2015, giving up home runs.  It would’ve been a solo shot but Porcello could not hang on to the throw to 1st and J.D. Martinez had himself a 2-run dinger.  Later in the game J.D. Martinez lined a hit through Xander Bogaerts’ broken glove.  J. D. would go 2 for 3 on the day but he would account for half the hits Porcello gave up in 7 stellar innings.

This was Porcello’s first start in Detroit since being traded for Yoenis Cespedes and he showed he was comfortable at Comerica after all those years with the Tigers, who also have a lot of former Red Sox on their roster.  The Tigers threatened only one more time and had 1st and 2nd in the 4th but former Sox’ catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia failed to extend a potential 2-out rally.

Bogaerts got another hit in the 5th and after an Ortiz walk, the Red Sox had a scoring opportunity of their own.  But Mookie Betts grounded into a force out.  I don’t think Betts was at fault though.  Miguel Cabrera robbed what could have been a nice hit for Andrew Benintendi, who has already been electric in Boston.  It was 4-2 Red Sox.  Would they hold on?  Oh yeah they did!  They dropped 6 more runs on the board!  Three innings in a row they scored a pair of runs.

In the 6th, the middle of the Sox lineup was shut down.  But with two outs in the inning and the bases empty, Sandy Leon came up to bat.  With four dingers in the 10 games prior to this, Leon was in good shape for a clutch hit.  He cracked an infield single on a low pitch.  Then up came Brock Holt.  Holt hit another one up the middle.  The Sox had first and second with Andrew Benintendi up, looking for revenge after Miguel Cabrera robbed his first potential hit.  He came through with a bloop single up the middle to score the inning’s 1st run.  Then Pedey came up with 1st and 3rd.  Ian Kinsler was covering second as Benintendi ran with the pitch, opening a whole for Pedroia to knock one between first and second right where Kinsler had been positioned.  That allowed another Sox run and knocked Michael Fulmer out of the game!  He was fresh off a complete game against the AL leading Rangers but today he gave up 6 runs in 5.2 innings against the feisty Sox lineup!

The Sox kept it up in the 7th.  David Ortiz got on for the third time as he punched a big single to right.  Mookie Betts got his first hit, a line drive single into left just above Erick Aybar.  1st and 2nd for Hanley Ramirez.  Ramirez knocked a double high up into right.  The opposite-field hit was in the gap allowing both Ortiz and Betts  to score and it was 8-2 Red Sox.

The Red Sox struck again in the 8th!  Andrew Benintendi drove a change-up into right for a stand-up double to start the inning.  Pedroia followed with an infield single, his second hit of the day.  He stayed hot riding a 10-game hitting streak.  He may not like hitting lead off but he sure is good at it.  1st and 2nd for Bogaerts, who was heading in the opposite direction until a multi-hit game tonight.  The center fielder caught his fly ball but Benintendi advanced to third.  Up came Travis Shaw who was hitting for David Ortiz and he walked.  Later Hanley Ramirez did it again, ripping a 2-run double to left.

The Red Sox were on a roll.  They were up 10-2 as the lineup was explosive, Porcello was dominant, and they even had a nice double play ball to end the 7th.  It was Fireworks Night at Comerica but they might as well have canceled it  because the Red Sox bats took care of that.  The bullpen was even good.  Fernando Abad pitched a 15 pitch inning in 9th inning garbage time.  They shut the Tigers down and 10-2 was the final score.

The Red Sox have two more crucial games against the Tigers.  They will face Daniel Norris and Justin Verlander with Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez pitching for Boston.  Will they win their way into playoff contention, or flop in the 2nd half of the trip?  They are now only a half game out from Toronto.  The Jays lost to Cleveland by late back to back homers, one outside the park and one for the first walk-off inside the park winning HR ever in MLB!

The Red Sox are in good shape and I think they might surprise a lot of fans after 2 last place seasons.  Stay tuned!

 

 

Sox Lineup Delivers After Slow Start

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Pedroia on first.  Bogaerts at the plate.  He hits it high into left, will it be enough?  GONE!!!! Xander Bogaerts nails a homer over the Green Monster and the Red Sox are on the board!  

The Red Sox got the job done, beating the Rays 4-1.  Rick Porcello pitched 7 strong innings, giving up just 1 run.  He is now 11-2 on the season!  I was at the game, starting a new winning streak as a fan at Fenway.  I am now 8-3 when I go, the 3 losses all coming last season.  

I’d like to give a shout-out to David Gagne for giving us the tickets with a great view in the right field box near Pesky Pole!  

The Red Sox couldn’t find their groove in the first three innings.  Porcello’s home run issues continued as he gave up a moonshot over the monster to Brad Miller in the first. Porcello gave up 3 hits and let one batter into scoring position in the next 3 innings.   There was also a throwing error by Xander Bogaerts on a routine ground ball in the 4th but Souza Jr. was caught stealing to end the inning.

The Sox offense was quiet in the first 3 innings other than a Mookie Betts blooper robbed by Oswaldo Arcia with a miraculous sliding catch.

Things changed for the Sox in the bottom of the 4th.  For the first three innings Moore was efficient with his pitches and only faced 10 Sox batters.  Matt Moore had less than 40 pitches through 3 innings.  But Pedroia led off the inning by working an 8 pitch walk.  That was the turning point of the game.  Moore struggled terribly after that.  Bogaerts launched a badly located 2 strike fastball for a 2-run HR over the monster seats.  Moore escaped the inning but not before walking Ortiz and giving up a single to new Sox Aaron Hill.

It looked like Porcello would fail to hold to the lead as he missed location on a 3-2 fastball to Nick Franklin.  The Rays left fielder started the inning with a double off the wall.  According to quora.com, 60% of the time at least one run scores after a leadoff double!

But Porcello got what he needed to get out of the inning without letting Franklin score.  He struck out the 8th and 9th batters, Arcia and Casali.  Then Bogaerts flashed his glove with a diving stop of a Forsythe one hop liner.  Shaw helped finish the play with a nice scoop of Xander’s 1 bounce throw.  And the Sox and Porcello escaped the top of the 5th still holding a 2-1 lead.

And the Sox kept their momentum going in the next inning.  Sandy Leon got things started with an infield single.  Mookie Betts then lined a shot to the center field gap that Souza Jr ran down but he took his eye off it as he almost ran into the wall.  He dropped it! A costly error put Betts and Leon into scoring position.  Pedroia made the Rays pay with a hard base hit to left and just like that it was 4-1 Red Sox.  Pedroia hit it so hard but Betts’ aggressive base running helped him beat the off-line throw and Pedroia took second.  The Sox would not score again but the damage was done.  

The next inning, Porcello got in another jam.  He gave up back to back singles with one out.  But Steven Souza Jr’s bad day continued as he grounded into a routine double play to short.   

Things settled down after that.  Matt Moore was pulled after 6 innings as the Sox got his pitch count up to 107 pitches after rough 4th and 5th innings.  Porcello went for one more inning before calling it a day, giving up only 1 earned run through 7 innings, doing what he needed to do to earn a victory.

Both bullpens shut down the sides through the 7th and 8th.  Dylan Floro did get in a bit of a pickle in the 8th when JBJ doubled and the Sox had 1st and 2nd after an intentional walk to Shaw.  Then Forsythe bobbled what should have been an inning ending double play ball hit by Bryce Brentz.  Brentz was called out on a fielder’s choice.  John Farrell challenged the play because replays showed what appeared to be a tie to the runner.  But the call was too close to overrule and then Sandy Leon struck out to end the inning.

Koji Uehara, the acting closer, came in to pitch for the 2nd straight day a go for his 2nd straight save.  A difficult task for a pitcher Koji’s age.  

Farrell had no choice but to use Koji as Craig Kimbrel is having knee surgery and will be out 3-6 weeks.  Dombrowski traded 2 prospects to Arizona for their closer Brad Ziegler but Ziegler couldn’t make it in time for the game as the trade was made just before midnight in San Francisco where Arizona was playing.  

So Koji Uehara took the closer role and got the job done anyway.  He gave up a lead-off single but settled down to strike out the last two batters, the 1st looking on a questionable call and the last batter on a splitter in the dirt.

The Red Sox got the job done as they begin to gain in the division.  Can they lock up the sweep before the All Star Break despite the Orioles winning?  Can David Price pitch the way he’s supposed to and will the Red Sox go into the break in good shape and come out of it as playoff hungry buyers?  Today’s 1:30 game decides it all and a 7-2 homestand before the break would feel much better than 6-3.  Go Sox!

Betts’s Big Night, Porcello’s Deep Outing Lead Red Sox to Victory

1 out.  Man on 2nd.  All-around big hitter Mookie Betts was at the plate.  The count at 2-1, he nailed it high into left field and it was gone!  Mookie Betts had hit his third homer of the season, as it flew over the monster then hit a stairwell and bounced back down onto the field.

That was the mood for most of the night as their lineup powered them over the Rays, 7-3.  After losing Joe Kelly 0.2 innings in last night to injury, the bullpen was exhausted, but Rick Porcello helped them out by going 7 innings, giving up just 6 hits, 3 runs, a walk and a homer and striking out 9.  He got the win; he is now 3-0 with a 4.66 ERA, a large improvement from last season so far.  Chris Archer continued his slump. Giving up 8 hits, 6 runs, 3 walks and a homer and striking out just 6 in a 4.1 inning outing.  He got the loss and is 0-4 with a whopping 7.32 ERA.

The Red Sox went big in the 1st inning as they stole the first run.  With Mookie Betts walked, Dustin Pedroia hit a one-hopper into left, sending Betts to 2nd.  Xander Bogaerts drove Betts in and advanced Pedroia to second on a single to left.  David Ortiz drove in Bogaerts and Pedroia with a line drive double into center.  It was 3-0 Red Sox already.  The Red Sox carried their momentum to the 2nd.  With JBJ on second, Mookie Betts blasted a homer over the monster to score two more.  It was now 5-0.

In the top of the 3rd, the Rays couldn’t score but at least got their first hit off Rick Porcello when Steven Souza Jr. reached on an infield single.  The next play was similar, a grounder to 3rd, but this time the Red Sox challenged the hit.  They won the challenge and it was 1 down with a man on 2nd.  Souza stole third when the next batter came up, but the Rays didn’t have the chance to drive him in.

In the top of the 4th, after a Corey Dickerson double and a walk by Desmond Jennings to make it 1st and 2nd, Mookie Betts made a jumping grab for out #3.  In the bottom of the 5th, Xander Bogaerts got back on base and Big Papi drove him in on a sharp line drive double to right.  That did it for Chris Archer.  Dana Eveland came in for him with one out on the inning.  Brock Holt kept things going with 2 outs on a base hit, and stole second with Vazquez up, but Vazquez struck out.  Vazquez may not be a benefit in the lineup, but he is behind the plate.  The Red Sox are currently trying to move Blake Swihart (a good offensive catcher who struggles on defense) to the outfield.

However, when the 6th inning came, Brock Holt was at shortstop and Chris Young in left.  Bogaerts had hurt his quad on his way home in the 5th.  He was day to day, but it was since announced he will play in Thursday’s game vs. Tampa with David Price on the hill.  With that, the Rays took off.  Logan Forsythe tripled, and after Logan Morrison’s strike out, he went home on Evan Longoria’s ground out.  Up came Corey Dickerson, who they got from Colorado for reliever Jake McGee to add a little power to the lineup.  He hit a solo blast off Rick Porcello, his 4th tater of the season.

In the 6th, Mookie Betts got a base hit and stole second.  Chris Young drove him in on a two out line drive single.  Young only had 2 hits until that, and that was his first RBI.  In the 7th, the Rays answered on a Kevin Kiermaier double and Hank Conger RBI single.  It was now 7-3, the Rays still trailing the BoSox.  In the next couple of innings, the Red Sox bullpen took control.  Between Junichi Tazawa and Noe Ramirez, they only gave up 1 hit and 1 walk, and struck out 2.  Red Sox, 7, Rays, 3.  That was the final score from Boston.

The Red Sox have a chance to win the series if they grab a W in today’s 1:30 game.  Do you think this year’s team has a chance?  Comment below.

Porcello Keeps Control, Red Sox Top Blue Jays

Rick Porcello had a horrible 2015.  Despite giving up two minor homers to Edwin Encarnacion, Porcello kept control otherwise today, giving up no other hits besides those two and striking out 8.  The Red Sox went on to win 5-3 last night.  Porcello and the bullpen that backed him up had most of the control over the game for once, even though the entire lineup thrived.

In the 1st inning, the Red Sox already began to stockpile runs.  With two outs, Xander Bogaerts got a clean single up the middle.  David Ortiz drove him in with a bomb off the monster.  Man on 2nd, 1-0 Red Sox. It looked as if Papi was swinging for a home run, but it didn’t go high enough.  Hanley Ramirez then struck out, but reached first on a Josh Thole passed ball.  Travis Shaw then drove Big Papi and Ramirez in on an RBI double of his own. Shaw got out attempting to run to 3rd.

On the first at bat of the 2nd inning, Edwin Encarnacion hit his first of two homers, this one his solo bomb over the monster.  Porcello then hit Troy Tulowitzki, but he didn’t end up going anywhere.  In the bottom of the inning, after a challenge, the call stood for a Christian Vazquez double off the monster. It was right after an amazing throw to first, as my dad said, good defense sparks good offense.  Mookie Betts singled Vazquez in after advancing to third on JBJ’s ground out.

Pitching took control the next couple of innings.  Rick Porcello even had a period when he had 11 straight batters retired.  With a JBJ single and throwing error that made it first and third in the 4th though, R.A. Dickey was starting to get a bit tired out.  Pedey ended the inning on a double play.

Pat Venditte, the switch pitcher, came in.  Christian Vazquez and JBJ both singled, 1st and 2nd.  Then Mookie Betts grounded into a double play, but Vazquez was on third with two down.  Dustin Pedroia drove him in on an RBI single.  That’s an 8-game hitting streak 45 game 0n base streak against division rivals.  Porcello got pulled after 6.1 innings and giving up a two-run bomb to Edwin Encarnacion.  Jose Bautista was walked to get on base for him.

Pitching was back in control in the 7th and 8th inning after the homer, there were some walks, but no hits.  Craig Kimbrel got to first and second in the ninth on Edwin Encarnacion’s bloop single followed by a walk, but finished the game without another run. The Red Sox took down the Blue Jays, 5-3.  Sure, Rick Porcello has homer issues, but besides that, he pretty much had a perfect track record.

The Red Sox played again this afternoon.  That article should be out tomorrow morning.