MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders and Trade Ideas

Welcome to Part 3 of my 2nd annual MLB free agency predictions.  Last off-season, things took a long time to get going due to a relatively dull free agent market.  This year, that is not the case.  We might have the best MLB free agent class in the history of my blog, and it’s bound to get going any minute now.  That’s why I’m releasing my predictions in November and December this year rather than January.  I wanted to get these out before the Winter Meetings, where a lot of big moves could occur.

Today, I will be sharing my predictions for free agent outfielders, including Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley, and A.J. Pollock, as well as some trade ideas.  Feel free to comment with your thoughts.

Below is my tentative schedule for my 2018-19 MLB free agency coverage.

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MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Coverage – Tentative Schedule

Week of November 19: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Pitchers

Week of November 26: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Catchers & Infielders

Week of November 26 or December 3: MLB 2018-19 Free Agency Predictions: Outfielders & Trade Ideas

Week of December 3 or 10: Baseball Bits #11: Big Free Agent Contracts

Note: These predictions were made before Seattle’s trades on December 3 and Pedro Alvarez’s deal on December 5.

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Top Tier

The Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Nationals have been as Harper’s top suitors.  But if you saw MLB.com’s free agent matrix for Harper, you’d see that the Indians have money to spend and desperately need an outfielder.  Harper would be a good investment for them.  Brantley, the former Cleveland Indian, will head to Houston to provide an upgrade over the combo of Derek Fisher, Tony Kemp, Marwin Gonzalez, and co.

Jerry Dipoto is not rebuilding in the same way Miami did.  They will still sign cheaper free agents, and outfield is a major need.  Look for them to add one or two.  Adam Jones is a good fit, and Hunter Pence will also give Seattle a boost, as he has not fully declined yet in his upper 30’s.  The A’s don’t have much money to spend, but if they’re looking to contend, Andrew McCutchen would be a worthwhile investment who fits well in Oakland.  If the Cubs miss out on Harper, A.J. Pollock could be a good fit.  Albert Almora Jr. is not a viable CF option in my book, and they could use some outfield insurance even with Ben Zobrist helping out there.  Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward have not met expectations either.

Secondary Options

If the Rays want to make a playoff push, they have to be aggressive this off-season.  Markakis is an affordable, but elite outfield upgrade option for the Rays.  After getting rid of C.J. Cron, they will need to add another bat to the lineup.  Meanwhile, Jon Jay could be a good fit in St. Louis.  He can share time with the young Harrison Bader in center.

The Rockies are unlikely to bring back both Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez.  The rise of Ryan McMahon may push Ian Desmond into the Rockies outfield.  They will re-sign Parra for OF insurance though.  CarGo could fit as a platoon outfielder in Atlanta.  I could see a pretty even time share in the Braves outfield if they add CarGo.  If the Phillies miss out on Harper, they will also still need an outfielder.  Carlos Gomez would be a good fit.  If Rhys Hoskins still gets time in the outfield, they will not want to commit to a top line outfielder like Harper.

Granderson could be afforded by a smaller market team with a need for an outfielder.  Look for the O’s to add him on a one-year deal while Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins develop.

DH

Cruz will return to Seattle, who could still use 1B/DH help.  The Tigers could use another bat to replace Victor Martinez, and preferably another veteran to anchor the rebuild.  Gattis is a perfect fit.  The Royals are also in the market for another bat, and Matt Joyce is an affordable option.  I have Holliday returning to the Yankees on a 1-year deal to provide insurance for the outfield.  Alvarez will head to Minnesota to help out Tyler Austin at first base/DH.

Trade Ideas

Cleveland Indians trade SP Trevor Bauer to the Houston Astros in exchange for RP Brad Peacock, OF Kyle Tucker, C prospect Garrett Stubbs

Everyone says that Corey Kluber is going to be traded.  But I think trading SP Trevor Bauer is a safer option.  In return, they get Brad Peacock, who could be utilized as a starter or a reliever as well as some outfield insurance in Kyle Tucker.  C prospect Garrett Stubbs will provide depth at catcher after the Yan Gomes trade.

Los Angeles Dodgers trade SP Rich Hill to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for RP Corey Knebel

The Dodgers have been in the market for top-line starters including Kluber, but I find this fact ridiculous.  They have an abundance of starters!  Clayton Kershaw is still here, Walker Buehler is a star on the rise, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill are solid mid-tier starters who are returning, and that leaves Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, and Ross Stripling competing for the #5 spot.  After bringing Ryu back, they have the flexibility to trade one of their starters, as I see Wood as a completely capable starter, and Stripling and Maeda should get the chance for a rotation spot.

Hill is a good trade nugget, and the Brewers could use some better pitching, so they’d be willing to give up one of their many late-inning relievers for Hill.  Knebel will help set up for Kenley Jansen alongside Tony Cingrani and provide depth in a weaker bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays trade C Luke Maile to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for LHP prospect Lewis Thorpe, RHP prospect Jhoan Duran

This is a smaller trade, but worth it for both sides.  Jays C Danny Jansen is MLB ready and can split time with C Russell Martin.  That puts C Luke Maile in an awkward position.  If they trade him to Minnesota, who needs a backup catcher, they could get some valuable pitching prospects to boost a weak rotation down the road.

That’s all for my MLB free agency predictions.  But my Baseball Bits on overly expensive free agents is up next.  Stay tuned.

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Betts, Moreland Lead Sox to Victory in High Scoring Showdown

The Red Sox came through again.  They topped the Blue Jays 8-7 in a high scoring showdown.

Brian Johnson really got rattled early.  In the first inning, Kevin Pillar led off with a double, followed by an RBI single by Kendrys Morales.  1-0 Jays already.  But Toronto wasn’t done.  Tulowitzki got a base hit to make it first and second and a Justin Smoak double scored a second run.  The Jays were up 2-0 in one inning.  Johnson was able to get out of the inning after that.  But in the 2nd, after a walk, Pillar doubled again, and after intentionally walking Jose Bautista, Johnson was stuck with the bases loaded.  Thankfully, the Red Sox defense helped him get out of the inning without a run.  Hopefully, they’ll do the same for Rick Porcello tonight.


The Red Sox struck back in the third though.  Bogaerts and Benintendi started he rally with back to back singles.  Then Betts made that three singles in a row and a run scored.  2-1 Toronto.  After a strikeout, Mitch Moreland hit another RBI single to score two more runs!

The Red Sox had a 3-2 lead, but not for long.  Justin Smoak smoked a leadoff solo shot to left to begin the bottom of the 3rd.  It was a tie game, 3-3.

The Red Sox took the lead back in the 5th though.  Betts got another base hit, and Hanley Ramirez knocked him in with a long double over Jose Bautista’s head.  It was 4-3 Sox.  But the next at bat, Moreland hit his 10th double of the year to knock in Hanley Ramirez.  That was Moreland’s 3rd RBI, and it was 5-3 Red Sox.  After that, Stroman was done.  Aaron Loup came in, but Sandoval just got another RBI hit to knock in Moreland!  6-3 Sox.  The Blue Jays went to their bullpen again, and Dominic Leone finished the inning.


The Blue Jays just struck right back though. Russell Martin crushed a solo homer, and the Jays narrowed the lead to 2 runs.  It was 6-4 Jays to end the 5th.

But in the top of the 7th Mookie Betts answered.  He nailed a solo shot to left, and made it 7-4 Red Sox.  The 3 run lead was back.  Betts also had his first homer.  The one week I don’t start him in my Home Run Derby pool, he hits a homer!  But it’s good for the Sox.


After Brian Johnson was done, the Red Sox bullpen actually did a somewhat good job quieting down the Jays.  They got in a couple of jams, but managed to hold the Blue Jays without a run for a few innings.    Kevin Pillar actually hit a third double, but Fernando Abad and Matt Barnes (after Abad was done) got them out of the inning. The Blue Jays also had 1st and 2nd in two other innings, but the Sox managed to shut them down.

In the top of the 8th the Sox scored again.  Pablo Sandoval started it with another base hit!  He was 3 for 4 on the day, with one RBI.  The Jays almost got him out on a pickoff but after a review, he was ruled safe.  After Marco Hernandez walked, Benintendi drove in the run with a ground rule double. It was 8-4 Red Sox going into the bottom of the 8th.

After a quiet 9th inning for the Sox, Barnes stayed in the game for the bottom of the 9th.  But he almost blew the game.  After 2 outs, Russell Martin walked, and Steve Pearce hit an RBI single to knock him in.  Then Ezequiel Carrera pinch hit, and he nailed a two-run homer to make it 8-7.  It was a close game now.  The Blue Jays almost came back.  But Matt Barnes put them away before any more scoring occurred.  This was all with two outs, so all that was needed to end the inning was one line drive.  That was it.

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The Red Sox just barely saved the game, a game they would’ve lost without an explosive lineup.  Brian Johnson actually got his first major league win.  The Sox cannot do this every game, but they’ve somehow won 4 in a row since Porcello’s horrid start on Friday.


Porcello starts again tonight.  Will the winning streak live on or will the Red Sox and Porcello blow it?  Check out my latest Baseball Bits for more on Porcello’s case.

Martin’s 11th Inning Homer Boosts Blue Jays Past Red Sox

The Blue Jays won their 10th straight while the Sox lost their 5th after Russell Martin’s 11th inning solo blaster, giving Toronto the 5-4 lead.  The Blue Jays scored first, right off the bat in the 2nd inning.  Encarnacion, Colabello and Martin singled back to back to back to load the bases.  Smoak struck out looking, put Kevin Pillar drove in a run and kept the bases loaded on an RBI single. Then Goins drove in another two runs with his base hit, and all of a sudden it was 3-0 Blue Jays.

They struck again in the top of the 4th. There were two outs.  Pillar and Goins singled.  1st and 2nd.  Then Jose Reyes singled and Pillar scored, just like that 4-3 Toronto, all with two outs, and Buchholz ready to strike out the side after striking out two.  In the bottom of the 4th, the Red Sox rallied.  It was 1st and 2nd, R. A. Dickey walked Big Papi and Ramirez got a base hit before it, and he now stood at second base.  Bogaerts singled to drive in Ramirez.  1st and 3rd, only one out.  Then Pablo Sandoval singled, and both Ortiz and Bogaerts crossed the plate.  4-3 Blue Jays.

Big Papi hit a leadoff solo shot into deep right field to tie the game in the 6th inning.  From there it was pretty quiet.  Toronto got stranded with bases loaded in the 7th and got no other hits.  The Sox were held to two hits.

4-4, top of the 11th.  Russell Martin leading off the inning.  Strike one.  Strike two.  Then, WHAM!!!!  Martin crushed the ball in to center field and it was gone. 5-4 Blue Jays.  The Blue Jays defeated the Red Sox in their 5th straight loss.  The lineup has been no problem, but Napoli has not been hot since June tipped off.  Maybe trade Napoli for cash considerations or a player to be named later.  Bring Holt or Hanley to first, and call up JBJ. I don’t exactly like the idea of it though.  Napoli is still a decent firstbaseman and we could use his help.  Besides, Iif the lineup is good, don’t make any major changes to it.  I’m starting to gain a liking for this lineup: Pedroia 2B, Betts/Holt CF/RF, Ramirez LF, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Sandoval 3B, Bogaerts SS, Swihart C, Castillo RF/CF, except for the wacky ending.

Maybe it’s time to give Henry Owens a try, or try Justin Masterson again.  Joe Kelly is not worth keeping as a starter after what he did yesterday.  Trading Lackey for Kelly and Craig was a horrible deal.  Lackey’s a decent Cardinals starting pitcher.  Craig and Kelly have stunk this year.  It’s time to try something different, that’s all I know.  Be on the lookout for my post on today’s 1:30 game.  The Red Sox conclude the series against the Blue Jays.  Minus will just start calling them the Dead Sox, if they can’t meet their expectations or even come close.  They play the Braves who they’ve swept the last two times, including the dreadful 2014 season series.  Being just as bad this year, and Atlanta rebuilding, can they pull it of again?  I can’t be sure even if they’ll win at all for a while.